# Ukraine transit expiry leaves Transnistria without Russian gas; right-bank tariffs jump

Date: 2025

## The fact

On 31 December 2024 Ukraine’s five-year gas-transit contract expired. Transnistria lost Russian volumes. Right-bank Moldova bought dearer electricity in January 2025.

## Context

She is head of state of the right bank. She does not police Tiraspol. She does govern the importer that paid. [Volodymyr Zelenskyy](/people/volodymyr-zelenskyy) is the counterpart whose transit contract ended.

The 2022 energy emergency is a neighbouring earlier instrument. Do not merge them. Keep Ukraine transit expiry leaves Transnistria without Russian gas; right-bank tariffs jump on 2025-01-01 separate from neighbouring 2022 energy emergency and January 2025 transit-expiry instruments.

The president of Moldova in a semi-presidential system nominates a prime minister and represents the state. She does not police Tiraspol and does not write Gazprom contracts.

## Evidence and sources

Presidency of the Republic of Moldova carries the official instrument or communique. Reuters records the same dated act independently.

## Significance

The path is the Ukraine war: a completed second flank energy shock when wartime transit ended. It is not a unique occupation of Tiraspol.

## What is established and what is not

Established: a 31 December 2024 / January 2025 expiry of Ukraine’s transit contract, Transnistria losing Russian volumes, and right-bank tariff pressure, independently recorded.

Not established: a unique Tiraspol occupation, or a unique household-bill coefficient from 1 January.

What would change the picture: a contradictory original with a different date or name, a later repeal, a court that vacated the instrument, or a measured series that can be argued, with lag and alternatives, as a consequence of this instrument rather than of later institutions.

The date is the date of this instrument, not a licence to back-date every later harm or benefit.

Ukraine’s contract ended. Gazprom volumes stopped. She did not police Tiraspol.. A later repeal, court stay, or successor order would be a different Fact with a different date. That pair identifies Ukraine transit expiry leaves Transnistria without Russian gas; right-bank tariffs jump, not a later speech about Ukraine transit expiry leaves Transnistria without Russian gas; right-bank tariffs jump.

Co-authors and later implementers named in Context remain on the file. Ukraine transit expiry leaves Transnistria without Russian gas; right-bank tariffs jump on 2025-01-01 is not a licence to treat every later Presidency of the Republic of Moldova communique as this same act. If a later repeal, stay, or successor instrument exists, it needs its own date and its own row. This dossier refuses to average Ukraine transit expiry leaves Transnistria without Russian gas; right-bank tariffs jump into a personality. The contribution described on this Person row is limited to She governed the right-bank importer. Ukraine’s contract ended. Gazprom volumes stopped. She did not police Tiraspol. That limit is the alternative to treating office-holding as authorship of every later series.

## People

- Maia Sandu: https://factrail.ai/people/maia-sandu

## Drivers

- Energy Security: https://factrail.ai/drivers/energy-security

## Sources

- https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/moldovas-breakaway-transnistria-region-loses-russian-gas-ukraine-transit-ends-2025-01-01/
- https://presedinte.md/

## Methodology

https://factrail.ai/methodology

Canonical: https://factrail.ai/facts/md-sandu-transit-expiry-2025-01