# Andry Rajoelina

## Identity and office

Andry Rajoelina was president of Madagascar from 19 January 2019 until 14 October 2025, and earlier 2009–2014. He is not in office at apply. He does not write an HCC judgment. He did run in 2023.

Do not open with a vanilla slogan. The ballot file is official. HCC declared him elected on 1 December 2023 with 58.96 percent ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/madagascar-leader-wins-presidential-vote-constitutional-court-says-2023-12-01/)). CENI had provisionally recorded 58.9 percent and 46.4 percent turnout after a boycott ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/madagascar-leader-poised-third-term-after-boycotted-election-2023-11-25/)). Marc Ravalomanana is unresolved.

The ouster file is dated. On 14 October 2025 lawmakers impeached him 130–1 after he fled; the army announced it had taken power ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/madagascars-president-dissolves-national-assembly-escalating-crisis-2025-10-14/)). Michael Randrianirina is unresolved.

## Documented benefits

The offsets that a commissioned-positive portrait would lead with are real only where dated. The 2018 election is a neighbouring file. It is not a rebate of 1 December 2023.

## Contributions and limits of responsibility

He ran and was certified in 2023. HCC wrote. CENI tabulated. Sharing tabulation is not a reason to drop 1 December 2023. The 2025 flight is a completed act on a later date.

## Causal chain through facts

The 2023 HCC return strengthens the owned contestation driver and weakens electoral integrity. The 2025 impeachment weakens [civic-space](/drivers/civic-space) continuity of that presidency. They do not hang on ukraine-war, eastern-drc-m23-rdf, [territorial-revisionism](/drivers/territorial-revisionism), or Soviet [state-repression](/drivers/state-repression).

## What the score does not say

This page does not promise an exact 2025 protest census. Direction on this chain is negative: the documented instruments certify a boycotted 58.96 percent return and then record flight and impeachment. A later genuine contest would be a different fact with a different date.

## Dated facts

- 2025: National Assembly impeaches Rajoelina after he flees; army announces it has taken power. https://factrail.ai/facts/mg-rajoelina-impeach-2025. Sources: https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/madagascar-military-ruler-randrianirina-sworn-president-reuters-witness-2025-10-17/, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/madagascars-president-dissolves-national-assembly-escalating-crisis-2025-10-14/.
- 2023: HCC declares Rajoelina elected with 58.96 percent after a boycotted poll. https://factrail.ai/facts/mg-rajoelina-election-2023. Sources: https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/madagascar-leader-poised-third-term-after-boycotted-election-2023-11-25/, https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/madagascar-leader-wins-presidential-vote-constitutional-court-says-2023-12-01/.

## Methodology

https://factrail.ai/methodology

Canonical: https://factrail.ai/people/andry-rajoelina