Every source behind The Two-Front War on Prices: Rate Hikes Above, Subsidies Below, and the claims they support.
Global average consumer-price inflation peaked at 8.7% in 2022, the highest world reading in decades, before easing to 6.7% in 2023 and 5.8% in 2024.
high confidence · supported
Directly drawn from IMF World Economic Outlook world-aggregate data points in the dossier indicator series.
The US Federal Reserve raised the federal funds target by about 500 basis points in 2022-2023, reaching a 5.00-5.25% range by June 2023.
high confidence · supported
Confirmed by the Federal Reserve FEDS Note cited in the dossier fact.
The ECB raised its deposit facility rate to 4.00% effective 20 September 2023, the culmination of a tightening cycle begun in July 2022.
high confidence · supported
Confirmed by the ECB monetary policy decisions press release cited in the dossier fact.
Monetary tightening pushes consumer-price inflation down with a lag of roughly a year, while cost-of-living pressure raises it within about a quarter.
high confidence · supported
Reflects the directions, strengths and time lags encoded in the dossier driverIndicatorLinks; magnitude of each share remains uncertain.
UK and German fiscal measures acted as neutralising forces on cost-of-living pressure, with the UK Energy Price Guarantee and related support costing GBP 51.1 billion (2.0% of GDP) in 2022-23.
high confidence · supported
OBR figure and German federal government statement cited in the dossier facts; their neutralising direction is encoded in factDriverLinks.
Disinflation through 2023-2024 may owe as much to the unwinding of supply and energy shocks as to monetary tightening, so policy attribution is uncertain.
medium confidence · partially supported
A standard alternative explanation consistent with the data; the graph encodes the tightening link by direction but cannot isolate its share.
| Source | Publisher | Type |
|---|---|---|
| World Economic Outlook - Inflation rate, average consumer prices (World aggregate) | International Monetary Fund (IMF) | dataset |
| The Federal Reserve's responses to the post-Covid period of high inflation (FEDS Notes) | Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System | official_document |
| Monetary policy decisions (14 September 2023) |
| European Central Bank |
| press_release |
| The cost of the Government's energy support policies | Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) | official_document |
| Minimum wage of 12 euros: millions of people will benefit | Federal Government of Germany (Bundesregierung) | official_document |