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Impact timeline

Touadéra Wagner CAR (2018–2026)
Goïta junta and AES break (2020–2026)
Doumbouya junta transition (2021–2026)
Ortega–Murillo family autocracy (2018–2026)
Déby hereditary junta (2021–2026)
Traoré junta and AES (2022–2026)
Private Military Formation Activity (2017–2026)
Nagorno-Karabakh war (2020–2023+) (2020–2026)
Cabello PSUV strongman and interior repression (2014–2026)
Ukraine war (Crimea–Donbas–2022+) (2014–2026)
Household Purchasing Power
Migration Policy Restrictiveness (2010–2026)
Eastern DRC / M23–RDF (Great Lakes) (2010–2026)
Civic Space (1999–2026)
Electoral Integrity and Competitiveness (2000–2026)
Forced-Displacement Scale
Museveni incumbency and civic squeeze (2017–2026)
Interstate Armed-Conflict Intensity (1917–2026)
Energy Security
Haftar LNA parallel power, Tripoli offensive and oil coercion (2014–2026)
Marcos Jr dynastic return (Philippines) (2022–2026)
Thongloun LPDR one-party (Laos) (2021–2026)
Tô Lâm security-state continuity (Vietnam) (2020–2026)
Murillo co-rulership (2021–2026)
Orsi Broad Front return (2024–2026)
Labour-Market Tightness
Democratic Resilience
Digital-Rights and Platform-Power Regulation (2004–2026)
Biya Anglophone crisis and succession (2008–2026)
Israel–Gaza war (Oct 2023+) (2023–2026)
Capacity for Peaceful Transfer of Power (2007–2026)
Vaccination Confidence (2017–2026)
Judicial Independence
Arce–MAS fracture (2024–2026)
Sudan civil war (SAF↔RSF 2023+) (2023–2026)
Tiani 2023 Niger coup (2023–2026)
Institutional Corruption
Wong PAP succession (Singapore) (2024–2026)
Income Inequality
Political Polarization
Reeves fiscal rules (2024–2026)
Combat-Drone Deployment Intensity (2020–2026)
Decarbonization and climate-mitigation policy (2013–2026)
Bardella RN mainstreaming (2022–2026)
Frontier AI Model Capability (2017–2026)
Min Aung Hlaing junta atrocity (Myanmar) (2017–2026)
Yemen Houthi war / Red Sea shipping crisis (2014–2026)
EU platform regulation (DSA/DMA) (2022–2026)
Shehbaz Sharif dynastic PM (Pakistan) (2022–2026)
State Repression (1917–2026)
Anti-corruption enforcement capacity (2003–2026)
Afghanistan Taliban rule (2021+) (2021–2026)
Protection of Minority Rights
Hun Sen post-Manet power (Cambodia) (2017–2026)
Diffusion of Open AI Models (2018–2026)
Morales parallel MAS (2016–2026)
Social Cohesion
China property / local-government debt crisis (2020–2026)
Hemedti RSF war (2019–2026)
Satellite-Internet Coverage (2018–2026)
Personal-Data Protection
Digital Learning Access
Health system capacity stress
Humanitarian Access
Fiscal-Policy Sustainability
Industrial-Policy Activism
Sanctions Pressure
Infectious disease transmission pressure
Public-Debt Sustainability
Teacher Quality and Supply
Public Education Funding
Food-Supply Resilience
Pandemic Preparedness
Food-Price Pressure
Energy-Price Volatility (1883–2026)
Digital-Platform Power Concentration (1892–2026)
Antitrust Pressure in Digital Markets (1901–2026)
Executive-Power Concentration (1917–2026)
Banking-System Stability (1917–2026)
Quality of Public Administration (1918–2026)
Territorial Revisionism (1918–2026)
Political Competition (1918–2026)
Access to Reproductive Rights (1918–2026)
Proxy-War Intensity (1919–2026)
Renewable-Energy Deployment (1920–2026)
Freedom of Assembly (1921–2026)
Media Freedom (1922–2026)
Government Transparency (1922–2026)
Public and donor investment in immunization systems (1930–2026)
State-engineered famine (1932–2026)
Prevalence of Political Imprisonment (1934–2026)
Constitutional Resilience (1936–2026)
Defence-Industrial Production Capacity (1937–2026)
Durability of Allied Military Assistance (1941–2026)
Capacity for Peace Negotiations (1945–2026)
Nuclear Escalation Risk (1949–2026)
Taiwan Strait escalation risk (1995–2026)
North America opioid / fentanyl crisis (1995–2026)
Vaccine Accessibility (2000–2026)
Access to Essential Medicines (2001–2026)
Digital Infrastructure Investment & Public Digitalization Programs (2001–2026)
Zardari patronage presidency (Pakistan) (2003–2026)
NATO Deterrence Capacity (2004–2026)
Maritime-Logistics Capacity (2005–2026)
Security of Maritime Trade Routes (2006–2026)
Water Scarcity (2007–2026)
Digital-Payment Adoption (2007–2026)
Productivity-Growth Potential (2009–2026)
Cost-of-Living Pressure (2010–2026)
Tropical deforestation pressure (2010–2026)
Affordable Care Act and US health-policy realignment (2010–2026)
mRNA-Platform Development (2010–2026)
Local-Government Autonomy (2010–2026)
Flood Risk (2010–2026)
Tropical forest / Congo Basin conservation (2010–2026)
Illiberal state capture in Hungary (2010–2026)
State Fragility in Conflict Zones (2011–2026)
Global Oil-Market Balance (2011–2026)
Nuclear-Energy Deployment (2011–2026)
Sahel jihadist insurgency (JNIM/ISGS+) (2012–2026)
Gene-Editing Diffusion (2012–2026)
HIV/AIDS global response (2012–2026)
Social-Platform Dependence (2012–2026)
Rule of Law (2012–2026)
State capture pressure (2012–2026)
Black Lives Matter and racial-justice mobilization (2013–2026)
Entrepreneurial Activity (2013–2026)
Cyber Resilience (2013–2026)
Missile-Threat Level (2013–2026)
Genomic Epidemiological Surveillance (2013–2026)
Urban Climate Resilience (2013–2026)
Digital-Surveillance Intensity (2013–2026)
Digital surveillance state expansion (2013–2026)
Sisi post-2013 military presidency (2013–2026)
Kiir oil patronage rule (2013–2026)
Fossil-Fuel Dependence (2013–2026)
Ransomware Activity (2013–2026)
Ebola outbreak response architecture (2014–2026)
Drought Risk (2014–2026)
Critical-Infrastructure Software Dependence (2014–2026)
Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) crisis (2014–2026)
Bolkiah absolute monarchy (Brunei) (2014–2026)
Terrorist Activity (2014–2026)
Defence Expenditure (2014–2026)
Biodiversity Loss (2014–2026)
Obiang resource kleptocracy (2014–2026)
Vaccine hesitancy / confidence collapse (2014–2026)
Mediterranean / Europe migration crisis (2015–2026)
Information-Environment Fragmentation (2015–2026)
Carbon-Pricing Coverage (2015–2026)
Reliability of Shipping through Strategic Canals (2015–2026)
Anti-Immigration Sentiment (2015–2026)
Rocket Reusability (2015–2026)
Air Pollution (2015–2026)
Climate crisis (civilizational warming bundle) (2015–2026)
Greenhouse-Gas Emissions Intensity (2015–2026)
Nuclear Deterrence Stability (2016–2026)
Frontier AI race / capability competition (2016–2026)
Concentration of AI Compute Resources (2016–2026)
Mental-Disorder Burden (2016–2026)
Mars-Exploration Intensity (2016–2026)
Biotechnology Innovation (2016–2026)
2016 election-interference investigations (2017–2026)
Housing Affordability (2017–2026)
Digital Censorship (2017–2026)
Cryptoasset Adoption (2017–2026)
Plenković HDZ longevity (2017–2026)
AI-Regulation Intensity (2017–2026)
Digital-Content Moderation Intensity (2017–2026)
RT / state disinformation ecosystem (2017–2026)
Gnassingbé dynastic rule (2017–2026)
Lourenço MPLA oil governance (2017–2026)
2017 US tax reform and Republican economic agenda (2017–2026)
Mnangagwa post-Mugabe continuity (2017–2026)
Belt & Road / sovereign debt stress (2017–2026)
Supranational rule-of-law accountability pressure (2017–2026)
Trade Protectionism (2018–2026)
Natural-Gas Supply Diversification (2018–2026)
Cloud-Infrastructure Concentration (2018–2026)
2018 inter-Korean diplomacy and summit cycle (2018–2026)
Conte M5S opposition (2018–2026)
Delcy Maduro-system enforcer and encargada continuity (2018–2026)
Salvini League hardline (2018–2026)
Inflationary Pressure (2018–2026)
Bolsonaro 2018 election and Brazilian conservative realignment (2018–2026)
Cross-Border Trade Integration (2018–2026)
Population Ageing (2019–2026)
Export-Control Intensity (2019–2026)
COVID-19 pandemic (2019–2026)
AI Safety Governance (2020–2024)
Artificial-Intelligence Diffusion (2020–2026)
Climate-Adaptation Readiness (2020–2025)
Climate-Finance Availability (2020–2026)
Disinformation Prevalence (2020–2024)
Monetary-Policy Tightness (2020–2026)
Electricity-Grid Resilience (2020–2026)
Fertilizer Availability (2020–2026)
Global Supply-Chain Resilience (2020–2026)
Military-Alliance Cohesion (2020–2026)
Military Escalation Risk (2020–2026)
Pace of Climate Transition (2020–2022)
Sanctions-Enforcement Effectiveness (2020–2026)
Abela Labour rule of law (2020–2026)
2019 European Parliament election and fragmented EU politics (2020–2026)
Fossil fuel phaseout struggle (2020–2026)
Martin Taoiseach cycles (2020–2026)
Borissov GERB cycles (2020–2026)
Radev caretaker leverage (2020–2026)
Argentina legalizes abortion (2020–2026)
Myanmar 2021 military coup and nationwide civil war (2021–2026)
Osmani statehood diplomacy (2021–2026)
Brazil COVID-19 response and Senate pandemic inquiry (2021–2026)
Fossil-fuel subsidies (2021–2026)
Díaz-Canel July 2021 repression and speech crimes (2021–2026)
Saied 2021 power concentration (2021–2026)
Akhannouch billionaire PM (2021–2026)
AUKUS security pact and Australian nuclear-submarine plan (2021–2026)
Bosnia and Herzegovina constitutional crisis around Republika Srpska (2021–2026)
Støre Labour oil (2021–2026)
Burhan SAF civil war (2021–2026)
Global inflation surge 2021–23 (2021–2026)
Austria COVID-19 vaccine mandate (2021–2026)
Castro Libre narco-legacy (2022–2026)
Russia sanctions regime (2022+) (2022–2026)
Milanović polarising presidency (2022–2026)
Chaves austerity-confrontational presidency (2022–2026)
Crypto winter / digital-asset bust cycles (2022–2026)
Woman Life Freedom protests in Iran (2022–2026)
Boric-era constitutional rewrite and domestic security (2022–2026)
Al-Sudani Coordination Framework militia-balanced premiership (2022–2026)
Brazil 2022 election and democratic transition (2022–2026)
Petro-era ELN and domestic security (2022–2026)
Boluarte legitimacy crisis and protest lethal force (2022–2026)
Ben-Gvir national security ministry and holy-site escalation (2022–2026)
Smotrich finance and West Bank civilian-admin dual hat (2022–2026)
Sonexay debt dependence (Laos) (2022–2026)
Bolsonaro 8 January and coup-plot prosecution (2023–2026)
Spajić EU-path polarisation (2023–2026)
Christodoulides Cyprus (2023–2026)
Milatović post-Đukanović rupture (2023–2026)
Kurti north Kosovo confrontation (2023–2026)
2023 US debt-ceiling deal and Fiscal Responsibility Act (2023–2026)
Gusmão petroleum politics (Timor-Leste) (2023–2026)
Peña Colorado continuity (2023–2026)
Arévalo anti-corruption mandate (2023–2026)
2023 US House Speaker crisis (2023–2026)
October 7 Hamas attack and Israel-Gaza war (2023–2026)
Luxon National coalition (2023–2026)
Rajoelina electoral contestation (2023–2026)
Noboa gang-war presidency (2024–2026)
Montenegro PSD PM (2024–2026)
2024 US campus Gaza-war protests (2024–2026)
2024 Supreme Court presidential-immunity ruling (2024–2026)
Mickoski VMRO-DPMNE return (2024–2026)
De Wever N-VA PM (2024–2026)
2024 Loper Bright ruling and Chevron doctrine rollback (2024–2026)
Ghazouani Sahel security (2024–2026)
Mulino Canal and Darién (2024–2026)
Schoof asylum cabinet (2024–2026)
Yunus interim caretaker (Bangladesh) (2024–2026)
Dissanayake NPP IMF presidency (Sri Lanka) (2024–2026)
2024 US election and Trump second presidency (2024–2026)
Anutin Bhumjaithai PM (Thailand) (2025–2026)
Sassou oil autocracy (2026)

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