Climate crisis (civilizational warming bundle)

What this driver is

It is a mechanism, not a weather headline, not a single COP communiqué, and not a welfare score.

The driver is not the renewable-share proxy on pace of climate transition, not the MtCO2e-excluding-LULUCF proxy on greenhouse-gas emissions intensity, not climate-finance availability, not climate adaptation readiness, and not decarbonization policy intensity. Those LIVE companions measure speed, volume, money, readiness, and statute. This node is the warming-and-harm bundle: the physical commitment already in the atmosphere and ocean, and the acts that keep adding to it.

It applies globally from the UNFCCC (adopted 9 May 1992; entered into force 21 March 1994) through Paris (adopted 12 December 2015; entered into force 4 November 2016), IPCC AR6, WMO’s 2024 record year, and the ICJ opinion of 23 July 2025. It is not ukraine-war and not territorial-revisionism (1918–45). A grain-corridor shock or a junta headline does not hang here.

The legal core is UNFCCC Article 2, Paris Article 2 (well below 2 °C; pursue 1.5 °C), UN General Assembly resolution 77/276 of 29 March 2023, and the Court’s unanimous advisory opinion of 23 July 2025 in Obligations of States in respect of Climate Change (https://www.icj-cij.org/case/187 (opens in a new tab)). An NDC brochure that calls residual fossil growth a “transition” does not change the mechanism.

Mechanism

The crisis moves welfare through named channels.

First, radiative forcing from the accumulated stock. NASA GISTEMP’s Land-Ocean Temperature Index, relative to 1951–1980, records 0.90 °C in 2015, 1.01 °C in 2020, 1.17 °C in 2023, 1.28 °C in 2024, and 1.19 °C in 2025 (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/ (opens in a new tab)). That is the same series, not a new driver each record year. WMO’s 2024 estimate of 1.55 ± 0.13 °C above 1850–1900 is a neighbouring official record on a different baseline; this page does not convert it into a unique GtCO2 or into Contribution.size.

Second, ocean heat and sea-level commitment. WMO’s State of the Global Climate 2024 stated that ocean warming and sea-level rise are irreversible on the order of centuries. A COP decision does not reverse committed sea level.

Third, extremes. Heat, wildfire weather, intense rainfall, and drought are how a raised baseline reaches bodies, crops, and grids. Extreme heat exposure, wildfire risk, water scarcity, and flood risk are LIVE companions.

Heat, drought, and flood damage yields and drinking-water systems. This page does not invent a famine headcount or a unique displacement integer. Contested humanitarian totals stay on their edge instruments.

Fifth, governance failure against a known physical stock. Paris created a five-year NDC cycle, not an emissions cap. The ICJ, on 23 July 2025, held that climate treaties set binding obligations to protect the climate system; that a breach is an internationally wrongful act; and that fossil-fuel production, licensing, and subsidies can engage that responsibility.

Timing is hours for a heatwave, years for a crop failure, decades for GMST, and centuries for committed sea level. A later genuine 1.5-consistent NDC, or a measured peak-and-decline in the same NASA table, would be a new fact.

Evidence base

The best evidence is the official temperature table plus treaty and court texts.

NASA GISTEMP v4 annual Land-Ocean anomalies versus 1951–1980 (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt (opens in a new tab)): 0.90 (2015), 1.01 (2020), 1.17 (2023), 1.28 (2024), 1.19 (2025). WMO’s State of the Global Climate 2024 (19 March 2025) called 2024 likely the first calendar year more than 1.5 °C above 1850–1900, at 1.55 ± 0.13 °C, while stating that long-term warming averaged over decades remained below 1.5 °C (https://wmo.int/publication-series/state-of-global-climate/state-of-global-climate-2024 (opens in a new tab)). WMO’s 2025 report (23 March 2026) put 2025 at about 1.43 °C on that baseline and confirmed 2015–2025 as the hottest eleven years on record (https://wmo.int/publication-series/state-of-global-climate/state-of-global-climate-2025 (opens in a new tab)). Those WMO figures are quoted with their document dates. They are not copied onto this driver’s meter.

The meter is the NASA series scaled by its own 2024 peak (1.28 °C), so every point is a sourced anomaly divided by a sourced anomaly from the same table. 2015 is 0.7031, 2024 is 1.0, 2025 is 0.9297. That is a documented transformation of one official series, not an invented coefficient.

Paris was adopted 12 December 2015 and entered into force 4 November 2016 (https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement (opens in a new tab)). IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report was released 20 March 2023 (https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/ (opens in a new tab)). UNGA 77/276 was adopted 29 March 2023. ITLOS gave its UNCLOS advisory opinion on 21 May 2024. The ICJ opinion of 23 July 2025 is the principal judicial instrument on this node.

Evidence is strongest for a signed treaty, a published annual anomaly, and a unanimous ICJ dispositif. It is weaker for any unique first-day death coefficient from a heatwave. It is weakest where a net-zero slogan is asked to rebate 1.28 °C in the NASA table.

Effect on welfare indicators

This driver, when it actually runs, is a first-order channel into heat exposure and a co-channel into combustion and wildfire particulate.

• Exposure to extreme temperature: direction higher exposure when the GMST baseline rises. The series is lower-is-better. Horizon: same year for acute heat; longer for chronic exposure. Confidence: high that the 2023–2025 NASA/WMO records moved this class of outcome. This page does not invent a unique heat-death integer.
• Population-weighted PM2.5 air pollution exposure (global): direction higher particulate when wildfire weather and residual fossil combustion intensify. Horizon: days to years. Confidence: medium. Wildfire risk remains the fire-specific companion.
• Under-five mortality: direction higher deaths where heat, unsafe water, and crop failure reach the same population. Horizon: months to years. Confidence: medium locally; low as a global coefficient. No child-death size is invented here.

An electricity-access or PISA path does not follow without a sourced channel. Missing coefficients stay missing.

The welfare sign is negative: strengthening the warming bundle increases lower-is-better heat, particulate, and (where the local channel is documented) child-mortality readings. That is the opposite of treating a record year as a green-transition success.

Interactions and contested points

The mechanism interacts with pace of climate transition, greenhouse-gas emissions intensity, climate-finance availability, climate adaptation readiness, decarbonization policy, fossil-fuel subsidies, extreme heat exposure, wildfire risk, water scarcity, and food-price pressure. Reinforcement is obvious when a record GMST year and a heat wave sit in the same season. Offsetting is the claim that renewable-share growth or a finance pledge rebates the NASA table. Those are different nodes. They can be stored. They do not cancel 1.28 °C in 2024.

The strongest competing view is that a single calendar year above 1.5 °C does not mean the Paris long-term limit is already lost, because WMO itself said the multi-decade average remained below 1.5 °C in the 2024 report. That objection is serious. This node stores both facts. It does not convert either into a unique overshoot coefficient.

A second competing view is that 2023–2024 were El Niño, not anthropogenic warming. El Niño is a neighbouring amplifier. It is not a veto of the 2015–2025 WMO streak or of IPCC AR6 attribution of the long-term rise.

It is not. Intensity is the emissions-volume companion. This node is the warming-and-harm bundle plus the dated legal instruments. Paris withdrawals and ICJ fossil-licensing findings attach here as governance of the stock; they do not mint a second climate-crisis driver, and they do not mint a Person.

Established: NASA 2015–2025 anomalies; WMO 2024 and 2025 reports with stated uncertainties; Paris adoption and entry into force; UNGA 77/276; ICJ advisory opinion 23 July 2025; distinction from the LIVE metric companions. Not established: a unique GtCO2, a unique heat-death total, or that a finance pledge reversed committed sea level. A later peak-and-decline in the same NASA table would be a new fact. It would not split this driver into COP-year twins.