Sources & evidence

Learning poverty in low- and middle-income countries rose from 57% before the pandemic to an estimated 70% in 2022.

high confidence · supported

Stated directly by the World Bank press release and reflected in the indicator's real anchor data points (2019=57, 2022=70).

The OECD-average PISA mathematics score fell from 489 in 2018 to 472 in 2022, the largest single-cycle drop on record.

high confidence · supported

OECD PISA 2022 reporting gives the 472 average and characterises the ~15-point maths fall as a record; matches indicator real anchors.

The Incheon Declaration urged states to commit 4-6% of GDP or 15-20% of public expenditure to education.

high confidence · supported

Stated in the Incheon Declaration record; coded in the dossier as a strengthening fact for the public-funding driver.

Brazil made FUNDEB permanent in 2020 and committed to raise the federal supplement from 10% to 23%, durably strengthening basic-education financing.

high confidence · supported

Reported by Malala Fund and coded as the highest-confidence strengthening link to public education funding in the dossier.

The 2022 learning declines are more plausibly attributable to pandemic-era disruption and weak teacher-supply gains than to a failure of financing itself.

low confidence · needs review

An analytical reading combining the lag structure, the COVID-closures fact, and the near-flat teacher-quality driver; offered as one explanation among several, not a proven attribution.