Sources & evidence

Over the past decade major emitters have enacted an unprecedented stack of binding climate-mitigation policy, from the Paris Agreement to the EU Climate Law, the US Inflation Reduction Act, and China's 2060 neutrality pledge.

high confidence · supported

Each constituent commitment is documented by an official or high-credibility source in the dossier; together they evidence rising policy intensity.

Global CO2 emissions per capita have stayed near 4.7 tonnes since 2010, roughly double the analytical sustainability reference of 2.3 tonnes.

high confidence · supported

Our World in Data World-series values in the dossier show 4.74 (2010), 4.74 (2015) and 4.73 (2024); the 2.3 t normal line is the dossier's stated sustainability reference.

The Factrail model links decarbonization policy to per-capita emissions as a moderate-strength downward force with a multi-year lag, so a flat curve over 2010-2024 is consistent with policy that is real but still young relative to that lag.

medium confidence · partially supported

The driver-indicator edge in the dossier specifies impactStrength 0.6, direction -1 and a ~1825-day lag; the interpretation that flatness reflects an unexpired lag is analytical and hedged.

China's commitment to carbon neutrality before 2060 strengthens the global policy driver but its delivery is uncertain and contested.

medium confidence · needs review

The dossier carries the China pledge fact as needs_review because it is a forward-looking statement whose execution is not yet verifiable.