Sources & evidence

Transparency International's global CPI average has hovered near 43 on a 0-100 scale since 2012, holding at about 43 in 2024 and slipping to roughly 42.5 in 2025.

high confidence · supported

Anchor values are real reported TI annual averages compiled in the dossier and confirmed by the official 2024 CPI release.

The UN General Assembly adopted UNCAC on 31 October 2003; it remains the only legally binding universal anti-corruption treaty, with roughly 190 states parties.

high confidence · supported

Confirmed by the UNODC custodian portal and the public record cited in the dossier.

The flat global CPI line reflects a near-balance between rising anti-corruption enforcement capacity and persistent state-capture pressure.

medium confidence · partially supported

The Factrail model links both drivers to the global CPI with opposing directions and comparable medium strength; the stagnation is consistent with their offset, but attribution is interpretive, not measured.

More than two-thirds of countries score below the CPI integrity threshold of 50, and the global average has never closed that gap.

high confidence · supported

Stated in Transparency International's 2024 CPI release and reflected in the indicator's normal-line basis.

The recent downward drift to about 42.5 may indicate state-capture pressure edging ahead of enforcement gains in the aggregate.

low confidence · needs review

An inference from the 2025 data point and the rising capture-pressure driver estimate; the move is small and perceptions-based, so confidence is low.