Sources & evidence

Measles vaccination is estimated to have averted about 60.3 million deaths between 2000 and 2023, as annual measles deaths fell roughly 87% and global MCV1 coverage rose from 71% to 83%.

high confidence · supported

Stated directly in the dossier's deaths-averted fact, sourced to CDC MMWR; high confidence.

The global under-five mortality rate fell from 93.6 per 1,000 live births in 1990 to 36.7 in 2023, but remains above the SDG 3.2 normal line of 25 per 1,000.

high confidence · supported

Indicator anchor data points (1990, 2023) and the normal-line basis are taken directly from the dossier's verified values.

Sustained immunization investment raises measles coverage and lowers under-five mortality, with roughly one- to two-year lags.

high confidence · supported

Mirrors the two high-confidence driver-indicator links in the dossier (strengthening MCV1; reducing under-five mortality).

Gavi reports immunizing more than 1.2 billion children and helping halve child mortality in 78 lower-income countries since 2000.

medium confidence · partially supported

Drawn from the Gavi fact; treated as medium credibility because the figures are largely self-reported by the organisation, as the dossier notes.

A coverage plateau (MCV1 around 83-84%, ~14.5 million zero-dose children in 2023) and rising hesitancy threaten to slow further child-mortality gains.

medium confidence · partially supported

Combines verified coverage data points with the hesitancy driver's modelled weakening effect; the forward-looking risk interpretation is medium confidence.

The Philippines' 2019 Universal Health Care Act strengthened immunization investment by enrolling all citizens in national insurance, though direct immunization effects depend on implementation.

medium confidence · partially supported

Reflects the medium-confidence fact-driver link in the dossier; the UHC Act itself is verified but its immunization impact is implementation-dependent.