Sources & evidence

The Philippine Department of Health suspended the Dengvaxia school-based dengue-vaccination program in late November 2017 after Sanofi warned the vaccine could raise severe-dengue risk in previously uninfected recipients.

high confidence · supported

Directly documented in the dossier's Dengvaxia fact and its sources, including the 29 November 2017 Sanofi warning and the subsequent suspension.

The Dengvaxia episode is associated with rising vaccine hesitancy in the Philippines, though the precise causal magnitude is debated.

medium confidence · needs review

The fact-driver link in the dossier marks this strengthening relationship at medium confidence and notes the magnitude is contested; treated as hedged.

In 2019 the Philippines recorded 31,056 confirmed measles cases and 415 deaths by mid-April, most among unvaccinated children, amid first-dose coverage falling from near 88% toward about 74%.

high confidence · supported

Figures and the coverage decline are stated in the dossier's 2019 measles outbreak fact and its sources; flagged needs_review because attribution of cause is contested, not the case counts.

Vaccine hesitancy depresses first-dose measles coverage, opening immunity gaps that enable outbreaks.

medium confidence · partially supported

Reflects the driver-indicator link (weakening, direction -1, medium confidence) in the dossier; mechanism is well established but quantitatively uncertain.

Global first-dose measles coverage remains around 83-84%, below the roughly 95% threshold needed for herd immunity.

high confidence · supported

Indicator data points and normal-line basis in the dossier give recent coverage of 83-84% against a 95% herd-immunity normal line.