Every source behind Can Mediation Bend the Conflict Curve?, and the claims they support.
The 2016 Colombia-FARC Final Agreement, led by President Juan Manuel Santos, ended more than five decades of internal armed conflict.
high confidence · supported
The dossier documents the 24 November 2016 signing with high confidence, sourced to UNHCR's Refworld archive of the accord text and an encyclopedic summary.
Abiy Ahmed and Isaias Afwerki signed a Joint Declaration on 9 July 2018 declaring the Ethiopia-Eritrea state of war over.
high confidence · supported
A UN Security Council press statement and an encyclopedic summary confirm the date, signatories and substance of the declaration.
Mediation weakens armed-conflict intensity in specific theatres, but global conflict deaths and intensity still rose to near post-WWII records.
medium confidence · partially supported
Factrail links the three agreements to a stronger peacebuilding driver and a weaker intensity driver, yet the driver rationale cites a record number of active conflicts; the local-versus-global tension is supported but the mediation intensity series is an estimate.
The Pretoria Agreement contributed to the sharp fall in global conflict deaths into 2023.
high confidence · supported
The dossier links the cessation to a strong weakening of armed-conflict intensity, which is tightly coupled to the deaths indicator at a short lag.
Bending the global conflict-death curve back toward its baseline would require mediation to scale faster than new conflicts emerge.
low confidence · needs review
A conditional projection derived from the model's driver structure; presented as a scenario, not a measured outcome.
| Source | Publisher | Type |
|---|---|---|
| Colombia: Final Agreement to End the Armed Conflict and Build a Stable and Lasting Peace (2016) | Refworld (UNHCR) | official_document |
| Colombian peace process | Wikipedia | other |
| Security Council Press Statement on Signing of Joint Declaration of Peace and Friendship between Eritrea and Ethiopia | United Nations |
| press_release |
| 2018 Eritrea–Ethiopia summit | Wikipedia | other |
| Ethiopia–Tigray peace agreement | Wikipedia | other |
| Deaths in armed conflicts by region (UCDP) — dataset | Our World in Data / Uppsala Conflict Data Program | dataset |
| Cessation of Hostilities Agreement between the Government of Ethiopia and the TPLF | African Union – Peace and Security Department | official_document |