World aggregate annual percentage change in average consumer prices, as compiled by the IMF World Economic Outlook. A core cost-of-living welfare indicator: high inflation erodes real wages and savings, hitting low-income households hardest. Moderate, stable inflation near 2% is generally treated as healthy by central banks; the 2022 spike to ~8.7% was the highest global reading in decades.
How to read it
Compared against a norm that itself moves over time.
Measured value over time. The line runs green while the indicator is better than its dashed norm and red when it’s worse.
Each driver linked to this indicator, strongest pull first, on the same timeline above. Markers are the facts that moved that driver. These are modelled influences — treat them as correlational unless a documented causal edge is shown.
Aggressive rate hikes restrain demand and, with a lag of roughly a year, push consumer-price inflation back down toward target.
Rising energy/food costs and subsidy withdrawals feed directly into the consumer price index, raising measured inflation.
Projected scenarios from the Factrail model. These describe what may happen under stated assumptions — they are not confirmed facts and may change as new data arrives.
Horizon: Dec 31, 2026 – Dec 31, 2027
With the monetary tightening stance easing into rate cuts and cost-of-living pressure partially receding, the Factrail baseline projects world consumer-price inflation continuing to decline toward the ~3.5% reference band over 2026-2027, while remaining above the 2% advanced-economy target.
Assumptions
Assumes no major new energy or supply shock, that central banks continue gradual easing without re-tightening, and that the lagged disinflationary effect of the 2022-2023 hiking cycle continues to feed through. Builds on the IMF 2025 projection of 4.1% as the medium-confidence starting point.
World aggregate annual percentage change in average consumer prices, as compiled by the IMF World Economic Outlook. A core cost-of-living welfare indicator: high inflation erodes real wages and savings, hitting low-income households hardest. Moderate, stable inflation near 2% is generally treated as healthy by central banks; the 2022 spike to ~8.7% was the highest global reading in decades.
This indicator’s slice of Factrail’s verified causal web — the people, facts, drivers and welfare indicators it connects to. Select any node to trace a path.
Loading network…
This is a projected scenario, not a confirmed fact.
Updated