Share of children of primary school age worldwide who are not enrolled in primary or secondary education, as estimated jointly by the UNESCO Institute for Statistics and the Global Education Monitoring Report.
How to read it
Readings above the normal line are worse than normal, so they plot downward here; readings below it are better.
This indicator’s slice of Factrail’s verified causal web — the people, facts, drivers and welfare indicators it connects to. Select any node to trace a path.
By the Factrail desk · Method: how we source and score · Last reviewed
Insufficient history — only one observation, so there is no trend yet.
Measured value over time. Its norm (0.0 % of primary-school-age children) is far off this scale, marked at the bottom edge, so the series stays worse than normal throughout — the deviation badge shows the gap.
Each driver linked to this indicator, strongest pull first, on the same timeline above. Markers are the facts that moved that driver. These are modelled influences — treat them as correlational unless a documented causal edge is shown.
Funding that removes fees and builds schools lowers the out-of-school rate (a lower-is-better indicator), so it weakens the deprivation measure.
Public Education Funding: raises welfare, impact strength 65%, 0 linked facts on the timeline.Conflict destroys or closes schools, displaces teachers and pupils and makes attendance unsafe, pushing the primary out-of-school rate up across conflict-affected populations.
Interstate Armed-Conflict Intensity: lowers welfare, impact strength 50%, 0 linked facts on the timeline.Strong direct evidence; no numeric causal coefficient asserted. UNICEF reported that the 2025 eastern DRC escalation forced more than 2,500 schools and learning spaces to close and left about 795,000 children deprived of education. [pack impact_type: education_access] [evidence_status: sourced] [impact_strength provisional 0.4 — pack provided qualitative note only; NOT NULL column]
Eastern DRC / M23–RDF (Great Lakes): lowers welfare, impact strength 40%, 0 linked facts on the timeline.Strong direct evidence; no numeric causal coefficient asserted. UNICEF reported that 95% of schools in Gaza were damaged or destroyed and 658,000 children had been out of school for nearly two years during the conflict. [pack impact_type: education_access] [evidence_status: sourced] [impact_strength provisional 0.4 — pack provided qualitative note only; NOT NULL column]
Israel–Gaza war (Oct 2023+): lowers welfare, impact strength 40%, 0 linked facts on the timeline.Strong direct evidence; no numeric causal coefficient asserted. UNICEF reported that most schools were shuttered or struggling to reopen and roughly 19 million school-age children risked losing education during the war. [pack impact_type: education_access] [evidence_status: sourced] [impact_strength provisional 0.4 — pack provided qualitative note only; NOT NULL column]
Sudan civil war (SAF↔RSF 2023+): lowers welfare, impact strength 40%, 0 linked facts on the timeline.Documented mechanism with a multi-year lag into a public welfare indicator already used by peer drivers.
Natural-Gas Supply Diversification: lowers welfare, impact strength 40%, 0 linked facts on the timeline.