Total number of people living in a country other than the one in which they were born (international migrant stock), worldwide, at mid-year. This is the primary stock measure of global migration and includes refugees.
How to read it
Compared against a norm that itself moves over time.
Measured value over time. Its norm (153,647,494 persons) is far off this scale, so the series stays better than norm throughout — the deviation badge shows the gap.
Each driver linked to this indicator, strongest pull first, on the same timeline above. Markers are the facts that moved that driver. These are modelled influences — treat them as correlational unless a documented causal edge is shown.
Ageing-driven labour shortages create a structural pull that, via labour-immigration reforms, raises the international migrant stock over time.
Restrictive border and asylum policies dampen irregular and asylum flows, exerting downward pressure on migrant-stock growth (partly offsetting the ageing-driven pull).
Projected scenarios from the Factrail model. These describe what may happen under stated assumptions — they are not confirmed facts and may change as new data arrives.
Horizon: Jul 1, 2027 – Jul 1, 2030
Under continued below-replacement fertility and a rising old-age dependency ratio, the Factrail model projects the international migrant stock to keep climbing through the late 2020s, as ageing-driven labour demand outweighs the dampening effect of restrictive border and asylum policy.
Assumptions
Assumes world fertility stays at or below ~2.2, the old-age dependency ratio keeps deteriorating, ageing-driven labour-immigration reforms (Germany, Japan) continue spreading, and restrictiveness stays elevated but does not escalate sharply. No major war, pandemic or global recession that would discontinuously alter flows.
Total number of people living in a country other than the one in which they were born (international migrant stock), worldwide, at mid-year. This is the primary stock measure of global migration and includes refugees.
This indicator’s slice of Factrail’s verified causal web — the people, facts, drivers and welfare indicators it connects to. Select any node to trace a path.
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This is a projected scenario, not a confirmed fact.
Updated