Population aged 65 and over as a share of the working-age population (15-64), worldwide. Rising old-age dependency captures population ageing and is a structural driver of demand for migrant labour and pension/welfare strain.
How to read it
Lower is better — readings above the norm count as worse, so they plot downward here.
Measured value over time. Its norm (10.0 % of working-age population) is far off this scale, so the series stays worse than norm throughout — the deviation badge shows the gap.
Each driver linked to this indicator, strongest pull first, on the same timeline above. Markers are the facts that moved that driver. These are modelled influences — treat them as correlational unless a documented causal edge is shown.
Demographic ageing is essentially measured by, and continuously pushes up, the old-age dependency ratio (more elderly per worker).
Projected scenarios from the Factrail model. These describe what may happen under stated assumptions — they are not confirmed facts and may change as new data arrives.
Horizon: Jul 1, 2027 – Jul 1, 2030
Under continued below-replacement fertility and a rising old-age dependency ratio, the Factrail model projects the international migrant stock to keep climbing through the late 2020s, as ageing-driven labour demand outweighs the dampening effect of restrictive border and asylum policy.
Assumptions
Assumes world fertility stays at or below ~2.2, the old-age dependency ratio keeps deteriorating, ageing-driven labour-immigration reforms (Germany, Japan) continue spreading, and restrictiveness stays elevated but does not escalate sharply. No major war, pandemic or global recession that would discontinuously alter flows.
Population aged 65 and over as a share of the working-age population (15-64), worldwide. Rising old-age dependency captures population ageing and is a structural driver of demand for migrant labour and pension/welfare strain.
This indicator’s slice of Factrail’s verified causal web — the people, facts, drivers and welfare indicators it connects to. Select any node to trace a path.
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This is a projected scenario, not a confirmed fact.
Updated