Global percentage of one-year-old children who have received the first dose of a measles-containing vaccine (MCV1), per WHO/UNICEF estimates of national immunization coverage (WUENIC). A leading indicator of routine-immunization system strength and the single most important driver of measles mortality. Higher is better; ~95% is needed for herd immunity.
How to read it
Higher is better — readings above the norm count as better.
Measured value over time. Its norm (95.0 percent of one-year-olds) is far off this scale, so the series stays worse than norm throughout — the deviation badge shows the gap.
Each driver linked to this indicator, strongest pull first, on the same timeline above. Markers are the facts that moved that driver. These are modelled influences — treat them as correlational unless a documented causal edge is shown.
Sustained financing and delivery capacity directly raise routine first-dose measles (MCV1) coverage; the 71%->83% rise over 2000-2023 coincides with the Gavi era.
Rising hesitancy depresses MCV1 coverage as caregivers delay or refuse vaccination, as seen in the Philippines after 2017.
Projected scenarios from the Factrail model. These describe what may happen under stated assumptions — they are not confirmed facts and may change as new data arrives.
Horizon: Jun 9, 2026 – Dec 31, 2027
Under a baseline in which global immunization investment only partially recovers and vaccine hesitancy stays elevated, MCV1 coverage holds near its 83-84% plateau and the global under-five mortality rate continues to fall but more slowly, remaining above the SDG 3.2 normal line of 25 per 1,000 through 2027.
Assumptions
Global percentage of one-year-old children who have received the first dose of a measles-containing vaccine (MCV1), per WHO/UNICEF estimates of national immunization coverage (WUENIC). A leading indicator of routine-immunization system strength and the single most important driver of measles mortality. Higher is better; ~95% is needed for herd immunity.
This indicator’s slice of Factrail’s verified causal web — the people, facts, drivers and welfare indicators it connects to. Select any node to trace a path.
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Assumes no major new donor surge or pandemic-scale disruption; immunization-investment intensity stays near its partially recovered ~0.75 level; vaccine hesitancy remains elevated relative to pre-2017; ~14.5 million zero-dose children are only gradually reduced. A baseline, not a worst case.
This is a projected scenario, not a confirmed fact.
Updated