Annual global best-estimate fatalities across UCDP's state-based conflict, non-state conflict and one-sided violence categories.
How to read it
Readings above the normal line are worse than normal, so they plot downward here; readings below it are better.
This indicator’s slice of Factrail’s verified causal web — the people, facts, drivers and welfare indicators it connects to. Select any node to trace a path.
By the Factrail desk · Method: how we source and score · Last reviewed
Insufficient history — only one observation, so there is no trend yet.
Measured value over time. Its norm (50,000 deaths per year) is far off this scale, marked at the bottom edge, so the series stays worse than normal throughout — the deviation badge shows the gap.
Each driver linked to this indicator, strongest pull first, on the same timeline above. Markers are the facts that moved that driver. These are modelled influences — treat them as correlational unless a documented causal edge is shown.
Clearance operations, coup violence, hangings, and airstrikes raise organised-violence deaths. The UCDP series is lower-is-better, so the welfare direction is negative.
Min Aung Hlaing junta atrocity (Myanmar): lowers welfare, impact strength 100%, 0 linked facts on the timeline.Higher armed-conflict intensity directly raises annual battle and conflict deaths (worsening the lower-is-better indicator).
Interstate Armed-Conflict Intensity: lowers welfare, impact strength 90%, 0 linked facts on the timeline.The 7 October attacks and the Gaza campaign intensify organised-violence deaths. The indicator is lower-is-better. This page does not invent a unique integer.
Israel–Gaza war (Oct 2023+): lowers welfare, impact strength 85%, 0 linked facts on the timeline.SAF–RSF combat and Darfur assaults intensify organised-violence deaths. The indicator is lower-is-better. No unique Sudan integer is invented here.
Sudan civil war (SAF↔RSF 2023+): lowers welfare, impact strength 85%, 0 linked facts on the timeline.Intensifying the Ukraine war increases UCDP organized-violence deaths. The indicator is lower-is-better, so the welfare direction of that increase is negative.
Ukraine war (Crimea–Donbas–2022+): lowers welfare, impact strength 85%, 0 linked facts on the timeline.JNIM and ISGS campaigns intensify organised-violence deaths. The indicator is lower-is-better. No unique Sahel integer is invented here.
Sahel jihadist insurgency (JNIM/ISGS+): lowers welfare, impact strength 80%, 0 linked facts on the timeline.