Best estimate of the total number of combatant and civilian deaths worldwide each year from organized violence (interstate, intrastate, extrasystemic, non-state conflicts and one-sided violence) that were ongoing that year, as recorded by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) and compiled by Our World in Data. Higher values mean a deadlier, less peaceful world.
How to read it
Lower is better — readings above the norm count as worse, so they plot downward here.
Measured value over time. Its norm (50,000 deaths per year) is far off this scale, so the series stays worse than norm throughout — the deviation badge shows the gap.
Each driver linked to this indicator, strongest pull first, on the same timeline above. Markers are the facts that moved that driver. These are modelled influences — treat them as correlational unless a documented causal edge is shown.
Higher armed-conflict intensity directly raises annual battle and conflict deaths (worsening the lower-is-better indicator).
Effective mediation and ceasefires reduce fighting and therefore conflict deaths, as seen after the 2022 Tigray ceasefire.
Projected scenarios from the Factrail model. These describe what may happen under stated assumptions — they are not confirmed facts and may change as new data arrives.
Horizon: Dec 31, 2026 – Dec 31, 2027
Assuming the recent cadence of mediated settlements continues and no new great-power war erupts, Factrail projects global conflict deaths to remain well below the 2022 peak of ~401,500 yet stubbornly above the ~50,000 normal-line baseline, with the conflict-displacement stock easing only marginally given its stickiness.
Assumptions
Best estimate of the total number of combatant and civilian deaths worldwide each year from organized violence (interstate, intrastate, extrasystemic, non-state conflicts and one-sided violence) that were ongoing that year, as recorded by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) and compiled by Our World in Data. Higher values mean a deadlier, less peaceful world.
This indicator’s slice of Factrail’s verified causal web — the people, facts, drivers and welfare indicators it connects to. Select any node to trace a path.
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Assumes (1) the Pretoria ceasefire and comparable settlements hold; (2) armed-conflict intensity stays near its 2023 estimated level (~0.85) rather than re-spiking; (3) no new large interstate war begins; (4) displacement remains a slow-moving stock that eases only with a long lag. A re-escalation in any major theatre would invalidate the baseline.
This is a projected scenario, not a confirmed fact.
Updated