Annual global best-estimate fatalities across UCDP's state-based conflict, non-state conflict and one-sided violence categories.
How to read it
Lower is better — readings above the norm count as worse, so they plot downward here.
Measured value over time. Its norm (50,000 deaths per year) is far off this scale, so the series stays worse than norm throughout — the deviation badge shows the gap.
Each driver linked to this indicator, strongest pull first, on the same timeline above. Markers are the facts that moved that driver. These are modelled influences — treat them as correlational unless a documented causal edge is shown.
Higher armed-conflict intensity directly raises annual battle and conflict deaths (worsening the lower-is-better indicator).
Effective mediation and sustained agreements can reduce fighting and conflict deaths by changing incentives, creating monitoring and compliance mechanisms, and keeping disputes within non-violent institutions. Outcomes vary with inclusion, implementation, and spoilers.
Annual global best-estimate fatalities across UCDP's state-based conflict, non-state conflict and one-sided violence categories.
This indicator’s slice of Factrail’s verified causal web — the people, facts, drivers and welfare indicators it connects to. Select any node to trace a path.
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