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Social Protection and Equality of Opportunity

Children at risk of poverty below 60% of median equivalised income

It belongs to Social Protection and Equality of Opportunity, the part of the welfare catalog concerned with income security and access to benefits across age, disability, employment, and household circumstances. The exact stored unit is percent of children under 18, the geographic presentation is global, the data pu…

current value18.2percent of children under 18
Worse than normalImproving(−0.99)
GlobalAbove normal = worseimportance: 0.80unit: percent of children under 180 active driversUpdated Dec 2025

How to read it

Readings above the normal line are worse than normal, so they plot downward here; readings below it are better.

Indicator & its drivers over time

About this indicator

It belongs to Social Protection and Equality of Opportunity, the part of the welfare catalog concerned with income security and access to benefits across age, disability, employment, and household circumstances. The exact stored unit is percent of children under 18, the geographic presentation is global, the data publisher is Eurostat, and the immutable numerical identity is EUROSTAT ilc_li02 The preliminary catalog candidate 94 is reconciled to the exact official series “Children at risk of poverty below 60% of median equivalised income” in percent of children under 18. This is a deliberate canonical correction: the database title names what the values actually measure, while the input wording remains in the reconciliation and audit trail. No hidden proxy label, fallback series, or silently substituted denominator remains. For catalog item 94, the provider definition is: At-risk-of-poverty rate by poverty threshold, age and sex - EU-SILC and ECHP surveys. Factrail retains only observations matching age=YLT18|freq=A|rskpovth=B60|sex=T|statinfo=MED_EI|unit=PC. The exact Eurostat dimension codes and any disclosed arithmetic combination remain part of the immutable series identity. That definition controls the denominator, population, reporting instrument, and statistical meaning. This Indicator records an observed outcome; it does not assert why that outcome changed. Welfare assessment for item 94 uses lowerisbetter. Lower observations are treated as better welfare relative to the dated comparative reference. The direction applies to the stored official measure after the disclosed transformation, if any, rather than being inferred from an emotionally positive or negative title. No mathematical transformation is applied before persistence. Keeping title, series identity, unit, scope, transformation, and interpretation together prevents the record from mixing incompatible measurement concepts. The numerical observations for catalog item 94 were retrieved from At-risk-of-poverty rate by poverty threshold, age and sex - EU-SILC and ECHP surveys through https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/ilcli02?lang=en&sinceTimePeriod=2018&untilTimePeriod=2025&freq=A&statinfo=MEDEI&unit=PC&rskpovth=B60&sex=T&age=YLT18 (opens in a new tab). The provider landing page is https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/ilcli02/default/table?lang=en (opens in a new tab). The research package records the access date, exact dataset and series identifiers, dimension key age=YLT18|freq=A|rskpovth=B60|sex=T|statinfo=MEDEI|unit=PC, unit, provider metadata, transformation, and yearly aggregation label. The bounded Source and Evidence records can therefore reproduce which numbers were used without treating a generic homepage as row-level proof. Measurement provenance for item 94 follows this provider method: Eurostat supplies harmonised country observations under one explicit dimension tuple. Factrail records a disclosed unweighted annual mean of reporting economies, and any sum or ratio uses only components from that same dataset, year, country, and unit. 2018 combines 39 reporting economies; 2019 combines 38 reporting economies; 2020 combines 37 reporting economies; 2021 combines 37 reporting economies; 2022 combines 37 reporting economies; 2023 combines 36 reporting economies; 2024 combines 36 reporting economies; 2025 combines 30 reporting economies. The output keeps full numerical precision through NormalLine, deviation, and interpretation calculations. Display clients may round for readability, but the persisted value is not squeezed into a zero-to-one score and is not rounded before calculation. The item 94 NormalLine starts on 2018-01-01 at 14.5 percent of children under 18. 25th percentile of provider-published reporting-economy observations in the selected series and dimensions. The calculation keeps the source unit, dimensions, and transformation fixed and is a comparative reference rather than an invented statutory target. For zeroisnorm, the value is exactly zero and is never relaxed because non-zero observations are common. For every item 94 point, normallinevalue copies that dated line and deviationfromnormal is stored in raw-unit terms as observation minus NormalLine. Arithmetic sign and welfare sign are separate. A positive raw deviation is adverse for lowerisbetter, favourable for higherisbetter, and adverse above zero for zeroisnorm. The custom governance score retains its provider scale and uses the public methodology explanation rather than title sentiment. The complete retained sequence is 2018: 20.4871794872 percent of children under 18; 2019: 20.1210526316 percent of children under 18; 2020: 19.5135135135 percent of children under 18; 2021: 19.327027027 percent of children under 18; 2022: 18.8864864865 percent of children under 18; 2023: 19.3777777778 percent of children under 18; 2024: 19.2194444444 percent of children under 18; 2025: 18.2266666667 percent of children under 18. The first observation is 20.4871794872 percent of children under 18 in 2018 and the latest is 18.2266666667 percent of children under 18 in 2025. The absolute change is -2.2605128205 percent of children under 18, equivalent to -11.0337922402% of the absolute starting level. The minimum observed value is 18.2266666667 percent of children under 18, and the maximum is 20.4871794872 percent of children under 18. For catalog item 94, the latest observation differs from the NormalLine by 3.7266666667 percent of children under 18 and is classified as negative under lowerisbetter. That classification is a deterministic comparison, not a causal explanation or editorial verdict. A movement may reflect real change, altered reporting coverage, revised estimates, a changed survey frame, or several of those at once. There are 8 retained item 94 observations in the selected 2018-2025 research window. The retained observations satisfy the minimum temporal rule without interpolation, extrapolation, or forward filling. Missing years are absent observations, not zeroes. The sequence is intentionally irregular when the official source is irregular, because a smooth-looking line created by invented values would be methodologically false. The displayed global item 94 sequence has one consistent numerical identity: EUROSTAT ilc_li02 No second source series is spliced into a gap, no latest value is copied into a missing year, and no country-only observation is relabelled as a World value. If the source later adds or revises an observation, the update must arrive as a new reviewed research package with its own checksum and audit record. A defensible graph edge requires an existing Driver, direction, strength, lag, confidence, and Source/Evidence that supports the mechanism. The outcome series alone cannot establish that causal chain. For item 94, importance weight 0.8 is generated by indicator-importance-rubric-v1. Its five committed components are directness 0.85, population reach 0.75, persistence 0.9, effect on human capabilities 0.75, and overlap control 0.85. The formula weights them 0.35, 0.25, 0.20, 0.15, and 0.05, then rounds to the nearest 0.05. The value is deterministic and reproducible; it is not an intuitive score assigned while drafting prose. The 2018-2025 sequence for item 94 is too short for strong causal or structural claims. Cross-economy comparability can be affected by institutional definitions, survey coverage, modelled estimates, missing observations, classification practices, revisions, and unequal statistical capacity. A global aggregate or unweighted reporting-economy mean can also conceal distributional extremes and should not be used as an individual-level estimate. The item 94 NormalLine is a transparent comparative reference, not a claim that every jurisdiction has the same legal target or feasible frontier. The source may revise both historical points and metadata. Any later refresh must preserve the earlier Source, Evidence, checksum, and audit trail; it must not mutate the meaning of an already reviewed series identity.

Causal network

By the Factrail desk · Method: how we source and score · Last reviewed