AP-NORC: Why Voters Say Trump Is Failing on the Economy Before the Midterms

A new AP-NORC poll puts Donald Trump (opens in a new tab) at 36% job approval and 64% disapproval as voters approach the 2026 midterms. Fielded October 8–12, the survey also found roughly eight in ten voters wanted either substantial change or a complete upheaval in how the country is governed. The warning for Republicans is not merely that Trump is unpopular. His weakest ground includes the economy and cost of living, the issues voters say matter most.

The numbers are unusually direct. About 85% of voters identified the economy as important and 84% said the same about the cost of living. The AP-NORC reporting found 74% disapproved of Trump's handling of the economy and 79% disapproved of his handling of living costs. Those are not abstract Washington concerns. They map onto rent, groceries, fuel, borrowing costs and household confidence — the daily experiences that often determine whether voters think a government is working.

The poll also shows a broader desire for change. That makes the midterm risk larger than a single approval rating. When voters say the system needs substantial change, an incumbent party cannot assume that dissatisfaction will remain focused on the president rather than Congress. The same survey showed Democrats ahead on the question of which party respondents preferred to control the House and Senate, while a meaningful share remained unsure.

The strongest Republican defense is that a poll is a snapshot, not an election result. Turnout matters, candidate quality varies by district and state, and voters who disapprove of Trump are not automatically Democratic voters. The survey's margin of error also matters. In addition, Trump's position is not uniformly weak across every issue: the AP-NORC data showed comparatively stronger ratings on crime than on the economy or cost of living. A midterm result cannot be read mechanically from a national approval number.

That is why Trump's campaign behavior matters. NPR reported that he was continuing to rally voters heavily in red states as Republicans faced competitive races. The strategy reflects a base-turnout theory: energize loyal voters, nationalize contests around the president's strongest themes and hope that Democratic dissatisfaction does not convert into superior turnout. The approach can work in individual races even when national approval is low.

But the contradiction is difficult to escape. Trump returned to office promising economic strength and lower pressure on households. Yet the October poll shows large majorities unhappy with his performance on precisely those measures. His administration can point to policies intended to increase domestic production, reshape trade or lower energy costs, but voters are evaluating outcomes, not just intentions.

That tension also connects to energy-price volatility (opens in a new tab). The administration is simultaneously managing an Iran war, disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions on Russia and a controversial Russian-diesel arrangement. Each decision may have a foreign-policy rationale, but voters experience the combined effect through prices and economic confidence. A government can be strategically active abroad and still lose support if households believe those choices make life more expensive.

JD Vance (opens in a new tab) also enters the midterm environment with a relatively weak national image in the AP-NORC reporting, which put his favorable rating around the mid-30s. That does not make him the central driver of congressional results, but it limits the vice president's ability to act as a broadly popular surrogate outside the Republican base.

The larger driver is the Trump second presidency (opens in a new tab) itself. Midterms typically become a referendum on the party holding the White House. With 36% approval, the president gives Democrats a clear national argument. Republicans, however, can still win by making individual races about local candidates, immigration, crime, cultural issues or dissatisfaction with Democratic governance.

Fairness requires one more caution: "failing" in a poll means voters are giving negative evaluations, not that an election result has already been decided. The survey was conducted among 1,119 adults and carries sampling uncertainty. Events can move opinion quickly, especially when foreign conflict, fuel prices and economic data are changing at the same time.

The next evidence will come from whether these ratings persist as voting nears. If cost-of-living disapproval stays near eight in ten, Republicans face a difficult environment even in races where Trump remains personally popular with the base. If prices improve or the opposition fails to convert dissatisfaction into turnout, the national poll could overstate the electoral effect. For now, the October data provide a clear receipt: voters want change, and the governing party is being held responsible.

Background: a separate Fox poll article (opens in a new tab) examined a different survey and should not be treated as the same dataset.

Questions people ask

What does the October AP-NORC poll show?

It shows Trump at 36% job approval and 64% disapproval, with particularly negative ratings on the economy and cost of living and broad demand for political change.

Do voters want change in the midterms?

Yes. The poll found roughly eight in ten voters wanted substantial change or a complete upheaval in how the country is governed, though that does not dictate which candidates they will support.

How low is Trump's economy approval?

The poll reported 74% disapproval of Trump's handling of the economy and 79% disapproval of his handling of the cost of living, making those among his weakest issue areas.