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IMF estimated that a fertilizer-price shock passes through to cereal prices with a lag

Dated 12 April 2023: IMF estimated that a fertilizer-price shock passes through to cereal prices with a lag. In the causal graph this event strengthens Food-Price Pressure, a driver that strengthens Under-five mortality rate (global) — a worsening welfare path.

Who was responsible

Contribution type and responsibility level for each recorded actor — not sole-author shorthand.

No public contributors are listed for this fact.

What changed

Fact → Driver → Indicator. Relationship strength orders the paths; it is not the observed indicator movement.

    1. FactIMF estimated that a fertilizer-price shock passes through to cereal prices with a lag
    2. strengthensDriverFood-Price Pressure
    3. strengthensIndicatorUnder-five mortality rate (global)
    Worsening path

    provisional weight · verified

    • Under-five mortality rate (global)

      via Food-Price Pressure

      Worse

      Strengthens · 35% impact strength (driver → indicator)

      Observed

      37.4 deaths per 1,000 live births · 12.4 above the normal line (2024)

      Worse than normal

      7 readings, 2018–2024: fell from 40 deaths per 1,000 live births to 37.4 deaths per 1,000 live births.

      Above normal = worse

Causal path

How this event connects to drivers and indicators in the graph.

  1. FactIMF estimated that a fertilizer-price shock passes through to cereal prices with a lag
  2. strengthensDriverFood-Price Pressure
  3. strengthensIndicatorUnder-five mortality rate (global)

Cite this page

Factrail. (2026). IMF estimated that a fertilizer-price shock passes through to cereal prices with a lag. Factrail. https://factrail.ai/facts/imf-fertilizer-price-cereal-pass-through-2023

https://factrail.ai/facts/imf-fertilizer-price-cereal-pass-through-2023

Accessed 16 October 2026.

By the Factrail desk · Method: how we source and score · Last reviewed

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