An almanac for 1550 opens a series of annual vernacular prognostications under the name Nostradamus
Catherine’s later reading of a 1555 almanac is a neighbouring court row. Annual almanacs, not the 1555 centuries book, made the living reputation. In the causal graph this event strengthens Political Polarization, a driver that weakens Having a say in government — a worsening welfare path.
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Context
Cheap annual prediction is a polarising public office: weather, politics, and unnamed threats travel as copy. Catherine’s later reading of a 1555 almanac is a neighbouring court row.
Nostradamus’s documented role is bounded by other offices and collaborators named in the sources below.
Annual almanacs, not the 1555 centuries book, made the living reputation. Later collected ‘presages’ are evidence.
Why it matters
Vernacular annual prediction is a polarisation path of high confidence on the almanac practice, not a verified forecast skill.
Who was responsible
Contribution type and responsibility level for each recorded actor — not sole-author shorthand.
Nostradamus
PersonDirect responsibility
responsibility level 0.4 · verified
What changed
Fact → Driver → Indicator. Relationship strength orders the paths; it is not the observed indicator movement.
- FactAn almanac for 1550 opens a series of annual vernacular prognostications under the name Nostradamus
- strengthensDriverPolitical Polarization
- weakensIndicators (2)Having a say in government
impact weight 0.5 · Effect from 1 January 1550 · verified
Vernacular annual prediction is a polarisation path of high confidence on the almanac practice, not a verified forecast skill.
Weakens · Relationship strength 0.23 (weight 0.5 × strength 0.45)
Observed
29.8% of population aged 16-65 years · 8.13 below the normal line (2023)
Worse than normalTwo readings: 30.2% of population aged 16-65 years (2021) and 29.8% of population aged 16-65 years (2023).
20212023 Above normal = better
Strengthens · Relationship strength 0.23 (weight 0.5 × strength 0.45)
Observed
43.9 Score · 43.9 above the normal line (2024)
Worse than normal26 readings, 1996–2024: rose from 43 Score to 43.9 Score.
Normal is zero · any amount = worse
Evidence
The sources behind this fact and its verification state.
- 1.National Geographic — Who was NostradamusNational Geographic · High credibility · verified
- 2.Britannica — NostradamusEncyclopaedia Britannica · High credibility · verified
What the sources establish
National Geographic records that he began writing annual almanacs in the 1550s whose poetic prognostications introduced the Latinised name to a wider public. Britannica independently places the start of published prophecy about 1547 and the 1555 centuries book as a later, different instrument.
Nostradamus did not file a later UNESCO form, a later Loeb colophon, or a later museum label as a personal act. One year, one opening almanac. Later years are the same machine, not twelve extra Facts.
Causal path
How this event connects to drivers and indicators in the graph.
- ActorNostradamus
- contributed toFactAn almanac for 1550 opens a series of annual vernacular prognostications under the name Nostradamus
- strengthensDriverPolitical Polarization
- weakensIndicatorHaving a say in government
Cite this page
Factrail. (2026). An almanac for 1550 opens a series of annual vernacular prognostications under the name Nostradamus. Factrail. https://factrail.ai/facts/nos-almanac-1550
https://factrail.ai/facts/nos-almanac-1550
Accessed 16 October 2026.
By the Factrail desk · Method: how we source and score · Last reviewed
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