Average annual fossil and industrial CO2 emissions per person worldwide, calculated by dividing global production-based CO2 emissions by world population. A core welfare-relevant climate pressure indicator: higher per-capita emissions drive accumulated atmospheric CO2 and warming.
How to read it
Lower is better — readings above the norm count as worse, so they plot downward here.
Measured value over time. Its norm (2.3 tonnes CO2 per person per year) is far off this scale, so the series stays worse than norm throughout — the deviation badge shows the gap.
Each driver linked to this indicator, strongest pull first, on the same timeline above. Markers are the facts that moved that driver. These are modelled influences — treat them as correlational unless a documented causal edge is shown.
Stronger binding decarbonization policy pushes per-capita CO2 emissions downward over time; effect is real but gradual and partly offset by economic growth, hence a multi-year lag and moderate strength.
New renewable generation displaces fossil-fuel electricity, lowering per-capita CO2 emissions — one of the most direct decarbonization channels.
Subsidies lower the relative price of fossil energy, sustaining consumption and slowing the clean transition, which keeps per-capita CO2 emissions higher than they would otherwise be.
Higher deforestation pressure releases stored carbon and erodes sinks, adding to total CO2 emissions; the global per-capita series is dominated by fossil emissions so the marginal effect is modest but positive (worsening).
Projected scenarios from the Factrail model. These describe what may happen under stated assumptions — they are not confirmed facts and may change as new data arrives.
Horizon: Jun 9, 2026 – Jan 1, 2030
Baseline projection that global per-capita CO2 emissions begin a shallow decline from roughly 4.7 tonnes as the multi-year lag on accumulated decarbonization policy starts to express, assuming binding policy continues to strengthen and is not reversed.
Assumptions
Assumes the decarbonization-policy driver continues strengthening (or at least holds near 0.62), the modelled ~5-year policy-to-emissions lag begins to express, no major global recession or energy shock, and deforestation pressure does not surge back. The decline is shallow because the indicator is a slow-moving global aggregate dominated by fossil emissions.
This indicator’s slice of Factrail’s verified causal web — the people, facts, drivers and welfare indicators it connects to. Select any node to trace a path.
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This is a projected scenario, not a confirmed fact.
Updated
Average annual fossil and industrial CO2 emissions per person worldwide, calculated by dividing global production-based CO2 emissions by world population. A core welfare-relevant climate pressure indicator: higher per-capita emissions drive accumulated atmospheric CO2 and warming.