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Andry Rajoelina

Andry Rajoelina

-100

Net harmfulFormula-derived score

The through-line is electoral contestation: HCC certified 58.96 percent on 1 December 2023 after a boycotted poll with 46.35 percent turnout, then parliament impeached him on 14 October 2025 after he fled. Not in office at apply. The largest negative contribution to the formula-derived score is “HCC declares Rajoelina elected with 58.96 percent after a boycotted poll” (2023).

Top harm

HCC declares Rajoelina elected with 58.96 percent after a boycotted poll

−149 pts

Personalist presidential returnboycotted certificationcontested dual-nationality ballot

Impact

Biggest harms and offsets: signed contributions to the formula-derived score, ranked by size.

Biggest harms

Lowers the score
Editorial assessment (context, not the score)

The heaviest documented costs sit on two clusters, not on a personality adjective.

First, the 2023 certification. HCC recorded 58.96 percent. Ten of thirteen candidates boycotted. Turnout 46.35 percent. The runner-up’s challenge was dismissed. Siteny is unresolved.

Second, the 2025 ouster. He fled. Parliament impeached 130–1 on 14 October. CAPSAT took the palace. Randrianirina is unresolved. This page does not invent a unique protest-death integer.

Confidence is high on HCC percentages and the impeachment vote, and medium where dual-nationality disqualification demands sit without a unique HCC finding stored here. This paragraph is an assessment of those paths, not a substitute number.

Indicators affected

Sorted by the size of this person’s signed contribution. The observed state is the indicator’s own reading, not this person’s doing.

Accountability & contradictions

Claims against the record, the type of responsibility, and what is disputed.

Responsibility

What could change this assessment

  • Lifetime coverage has not been assessed: the record reflects stored facts only (2023–2025).

Causal path

Person → Fact → Driver → Indicator. Select a path to inspect its factors; the full network opens on demand.

  1. PersonAndry Rajoelina
  2. FactHCC declares Rajoelina elected with 58.96 percent after a boycotted poll
  3. DriverRajoelina electoral contestation
  4. IndicatorHaving a say in government
−149 pts

Contribution size 1 · Responsibility 0.5 · Fact impact 1 · Driver weight 1 · Driver → indicator −0.8 · Indicator importance 0.8 · Deviation factor −3 · Confidence 1

  1. PersonAndry Rajoelina
  2. FactNational Assembly impeaches Rajoelina after he flees; army announces it has taken power
  3. DriverRajoelina electoral contestation
  4. IndicatorHaving a say in government
−146 pts

Contribution size 1 · Responsibility 0.5 · Fact impact 1 · Driver weight 1 · Driver → indicator −0.8 · Indicator importance 0.8 · Deviation factor −3 · Confidence 1

Timeline

The most relevant dated facts, newest first.

  1. 14 October 2025 · Civic Space

    National Assembly impeaches Rajoelina after he flees; army announces it has taken power
    −146 pts

  2. 1 December 2023 · Rajoelina electoral contestation

    HCC declares Rajoelina elected with 58.96 percent after a boycotted poll
    −149 pts

Evidence & methodology

How the record is sourced and how the score is derived.

2 of 2 linked facts verified, drawing on 2 distinct sources (2023–2025).

Sources include Reuters, Reuters (recording HCC).

Sources

  1. 1.Reuters — Assembly impeaches Rajoelina 130–1; army says it has taken power, 14 October 2025Reuters
  2. 2.Reuters — HCC declares Rajoelina elected with 58.96 percent, 1 December 2023Reuters (recording HCC)

The score is formula-derived (Factrail formula v1, version 1.0.0), not an editorial verdict. Read the methodology.

By the Factrail desk · Method: how we source and score · Last reviewed · Sources: 2

Expert analysis

An excerpt; the full analysis opens on request.

Identity and office

Andry Rajoelina was president of Madagascar from 19 January 2019 until 14 October 2025, and earlier 2009–2014. He is not in office at apply. He does not write an HCC judgment. He did run in 2023.

The ballot file is official. HCC declared him elected on 1 December 2023 with 58.96 percent (Reuters (opens in a new tab)). CENI had provisionally recorded 58.9 percent and 46.4 percent turnout after a boycott (Reuters (opens in a new tab)). Marc Ravalomanana is unresolved.

The ouster file is dated. On 14 October 2025 lawmakers impeached him 130–1 after he fled; the army announced it had taken power (Reuters (opens in a new tab)). Michael Randrianirina is unresolved.

Documented benefits

The offsets that a commissioned-positive portrait would lead with are real only where dated. The 2018 election is a neighbouring file. It is not a rebate of 1 December 2023.

Contributions and limits of responsibility

He ran and was certified in 2023. HCC wrote. CENI tabulated. Sharing tabulation is not a reason to drop 1 December 2023. The 2025 flight is a completed act on a later date.

Causal chain through facts

The 2023 HCC return strengthens the owned contestation driver and weakens electoral integrity. The 2025 impeachment weakens civic-space continuity of that presidency. They do not hang on ukraine-war, eastern-drc-m23-rdf, territorial-revisionism, or Soviet state-repression.

What the score does not say

This page does not promise an exact 2025 protest census. Direction on this chain is negative: the documented instruments certify a boycotted 58.96 percent return and then record flight and impeachment. A later genuine contest would be a different fact with a different date.

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