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Ismail Omar Guelleh

Ismail Omar Guelleh

-53

Net harmfulFormula-derived score

The through-line is multi-decade incumbency: 97 percent in 2021, an age-cap lift so he could run at 78, then 97.8 percent for a sixth term in April 2026 after a boycott — not a port-stability clerk. Still in office at apply. The largest negative contribution to the formula-derived score is “RTD records Guelleh at 97.8 percent for a sixth term after the age-cap lift” (2026).

Top harm

RTD records Guelleh at 97.8 percent for a sixth term after the age-cap lift

−53 pts

RPP family successionclosed 97-percent certificationsstrategic-base incumbency

Impact

Biggest harms and offsets: signed contributions to the formula-derived score, ranked by size.

Biggest harms

Lowers the score
Editorial assessment (context, not the score)

The heaviest documented costs sit on closed certifications, not on a personality adjective.

2021: Interior Ministry 97 percent class against Farah after a boycott; Farah alleged stuffing and barred delegates. 2026: RTD 97.8 percent; Council 97.01 percent against Samatar. Main opposition boycotts since 2016. Age cap lifted so he could run at 78.

Confidence is high on the 2021 and 2026 percentages, and medium where stuffing allegations sit without a unique Court size. This paragraph is an assessment of those paths, not a substitute number.

Indicators affected

Sorted by the size of this person’s signed contribution. The observed state is the indicator’s own reading, not this person’s doing.

Accountability & contradictions

Claims against the record, the type of responsibility, and what is disputed.

Responsibility

What could change this assessment

  • Lifetime coverage has not been assessed: the record reflects stored facts only (2021–2026).

Causal path

Person → Fact → Driver → Indicator. Select a path to inspect its factors; the full network opens on demand.

  1. PersonIsmail Omar Guelleh
  2. FactRTD records Guelleh at 97.8 percent for a sixth term after the age-cap lift
  3. DriverElectoral Integrity and Competitiveness
  4. IndicatorHaving a say in government
−53 pts

Contribution size 1 · Responsibility 0.5 · Fact impact −1 · Driver weight 0.55 · Driver → indicator 0.8 · Indicator importance 0.8 · Deviation factor −3 · Confidence 1

Timeline

The most relevant dated facts, newest first.

  1. 11 April 2026 · Electoral Integrity and Competitiveness

    RTD records Guelleh at 97.8 percent for a sixth term after the age-cap lift
    −53 pts

  2. 10 April 2021 · Electoral Integrity and Competitiveness

    Interior Ministry records Guelleh at 97 percent class after a boycotted poll

Evidence & methodology

How the record is sourced and how the score is derived.

2 of 2 linked facts verified, drawing on 2 distinct sources (2021–2026).

Sources include Reuters (recording RTD), Reuters (recording Interior Ministry).

Sources

  1. 1.Reuters — RTD: Guelleh 97.8 percent sixth term, 11 April 2026Reuters (recording RTD)
  2. 2.Reuters — Interior Ministry: Guelleh over 97 percent, 10 April 2021Reuters (recording Interior Ministry)

The score is formula-derived (Factrail formula v1, version 1.0.0), not an editorial verdict. Read the methodology.

By the Factrail desk · Method: how we source and score · Last reviewed · Sources: 2

Expert analysis

An excerpt; the full analysis opens on request.

Identity and office

Ismail Omar Guelleh has been president of Djibouti since 8 May 1999. He remains in office. He does not write a Constitutional Council proclamation.

The 2021 file is official. Interior Ministry data recorded 97 percent class on 10 April 2021 (Reuters (opens in a new tab)). Farah alleged stuffing. He is unresolved.

The clock file is dated. Parliament lifted the 75-year cap so he could run in 2026 (BBC (opens in a new tab)).

The 2026 file is official. RTD recorded 97.8 percent on 11 April (Reuters (opens in a new tab)). The Council proclaimed 97.01 percent on 21 April (ADI). Samatar is unresolved.

Documented benefits

Port and base geography are neighbouring files. They are not a unique lease-dollar rebate of 97 percent.

Contributions and limits of responsibility

He ran and was certified. Interior tabulated. The Council wrote. Sharing tabulation is not a reason to drop 11 April 2026.

Causal chain through facts

2021 and 2026 returns strengthen the owned incumbency driver and weaken electoral integrity. They do not hang on ukraine-war, eastern-drc-m23-rdf, territorial-revisionism, or Soviet state-repression.

What the score does not say

This page does not promise an exact stuffing census. Direction on this chain is negative: the documented instruments are 97-percent-class returns after boycotts. A later genuine contest would be a different fact with a different date.

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