Interior Ministry records Guelleh at 97 percent class after a boycotted poll
On 10 April 2021 Djibouti’s Interior Ministry recorded Ismail Omar Guelleh winner of the 9 April presidential election with over 97 percent of votes cast against Zakaria Ismail Farah (2.48 percent in ministry data). In the causal graph this event weakens Electoral Integrity and Competitiveness, a driver that strengthens Having a say in government — a worsening welfare path.
Read the full account
On 10 April 2021 Djibouti’s Interior Ministry recorded Ismail Omar Guelleh winner of the 9 April presidential election with over 97 percent of votes cast against Zakaria Ismail Farah (2.48 percent in ministry data). Most of the opposition boycotted. Farah told Reuters the result was “far from reality” and alleged stuffing after his delegates were barred. This page does not invent a unique stuffing integer.
Context
He ran. Interior tabulated. Farah is unresolved.
9 April poll; 10 April Interior data. Stored as one 10 April 2021 Fact. Keep Interior Ministry records Guelleh at 97 percent class after a boycotted poll on 2021-04-10 separate from neighbouring 2021, age-cap, and 2026 instruments.
The president of Djibouti is head of state. He can run, accept an Interior Ministry return, and benefit from a Constitutional Council proclamation. He does not write the Council judgment, and he does not invent a unique stuffing integer here.
Why it matters
The path is electoral integrity: a completed 97 percent-class certification after a boycott.
Who was responsible
Contribution type and responsibility level for each recorded actor — not sole-author shorthand.
Ismail Omar Guelleh
PersonDirect responsibility
verified
He ran and was certified. Interior tabulated. Sharing tabulation is not a reason to drop the certification.
What changed
Fact → Driver → Indicator. Relationship strength orders the paths; it is not the observed indicator movement.
- FactInterior Ministry records Guelleh at 97 percent class after a boycotted poll
- weakensDriverElectoral Integrity and Competitiveness
- strengthensIndicators (3)Having a say in government
impact weight 1 · Effect from 10 April 2021 · verified
A completed boycott certification at 97 percent is a dated weakening of electoral integrity.
Strengthens · Relationship strength 0.8 (weight 1 × strength 0.8)
Observed
29.8% of population aged 16-65 years · 8.13 below the normal line (2023)
Worse than normalTwo readings: 30.2% of population aged 16-65 years (2021) and 29.8% of population aged 16-65 years (2023).
20212023 Above normal = better
Strengthens · Relationship strength 0.68 (weight 1 × strength 0.68)
Observed
0.53 score from 0 to 1 · 0.34 below the normal line (2024)
Worse than normal125 readings, 1900–2024: rose from 0.17 score from 0 to 1 to 0.53 score from 0 to 1.
Above normal = better
Weakens · Relationship strength 0.51 (weight 1 × strength 0.51)
Observed
45 Score · 45 above the normal line (2024)
Worse than normal7 readings, 2018–2024: rose from 43.8 Score to 45 Score.
Normal is zero · any amount = worse
Evidence
The sources behind this fact and its verification state.
- 1.The Africa Report — Guelleh 97.44 percent; Farah 2.48 percent, 12 April 2021The Africa Report · High credibility · verified
- 2.Reuters — Interior Ministry: Guelleh over 97 percent, 10 April 2021Reuters (recording Interior Ministry) · High credibility · verified
What the sources establish
Reuters (recording Interior Ministry) carries the official instrument or communique. The Africa Report records the same dated act independently.
Established: Interior Ministry recorded over 97 percent on 10 April 2021. Farah alleged stuffing.
Not established: A unique stuffing integer, or that 97 percent is an ODIHR competitive finding.
Interior tabulated. Sharing tabulation is not a reason to drop the certification.. A later repeal, court stay, or successor order would be a different Fact with a different date. That pair identifies Interior Ministry records Guelleh at 97 percent class after a boycotted poll, not a later speech about Interior Ministry records Guelleh at 97 percent class after a boycotted poll.
Co-authors and later implementers named in Context remain on the file. If a later repeal, stay, or successor instrument exists, it needs its own date and its own row. The contribution described on this Person row is limited to He ran and was certified. Interior tabulated. That limit is the alternative to treating office-holding as authorship of every later series.
Causal path
How this event connects to drivers and indicators in the graph.
- ActorIsmail Omar Guelleh
- contributed toFactInterior Ministry records Guelleh at 97 percent class after a boycotted poll
- weakensDriverElectoral Integrity and Competitiveness
- strengthensIndicatorHaving a say in government
Cite this page
Factrail. (2026). Interior Ministry records Guelleh at 97 percent class after a boycotted poll. Factrail. https://factrail.ai/facts/dj-guelleh-election-2021
https://factrail.ai/facts/dj-guelleh-election-2021
Accessed 15 October 2026.
By the Factrail desk · Method: how we source and score · Last reviewed
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