Net harmfulFormula-derived score
Not a civic firewall above a family-consultancy rupture. The largest negative contribution to the formula-derived score is “Assembly rejects Montenegro’s confidence motion after Spinumviva” (2025).
Biggest harms and offsets: signed contributions to the formula-derived score, ranked by size.
via Montenegro PSD PM → Having a say in government
11 March 2025 · Direct contribution
via Montenegro PSD PM → Having a say in government
2 April 2024 · Direct contribution
The heaviest documented costs sit on two clusters, not on a personality adjective.
First, the minority oath. On 2 April 2024 President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa swore Montenegro and the XXIV Constitutional Government at Palácio Nacional da Ajuda (Portugal.gov.pt (opens in a new tab); Reuters (opens in a new tab)). The Democratic Alliance held a reported 80 seats in a 230-seat Assembly. Chega was the third force. Costa is unresolved. Ventura is unresolved.
Second, the confidence collapse. On 11 March 2025 the Assembly rejected Moção de Confiança n.º 1/XVI/1.ª. Reuters and BBC recorded 142 votes against and 88 in favour, with no abstentions (DAR (opens in a new tab); Reuters (opens in a new tab)). The motion followed the Spinumviva family-consultancy controversy. This page does not store Spinumviva as a conviction. The December 2025 prosecutorial close without charges is a close, not a rebate.
He swore again on 5 June 2025 (Portugal.gov.pt (opens in a new tab)). Still without a majority. Confidence is high on the oath and the 11 March rejection, and medium where “firewall against Chega” is campaign language rather than a gazette. This paragraph is an assessment of those paths, not a substitute number.
Sorted by the size of this person’s signed contribution. The observed state is the indicator’s own reading, not this person’s doing.
−132 pts to the score
Observed
29.8% of population aged 16-65 years · 8.13 below the normal line (2023)
Worse than normalTwo readings: 30.2% of population aged 16-65 years (2021) and 29.8% of population aged 16-65 years (2023).
Above normal = better · 2024–2025 · 2 facts, full confidence · formula deviation factor −3
Claims against the record, the type of responsibility, and what is disputed.
Responsibility
What could change this assessment
Person → Fact → Driver → Indicator. Select a path to inspect its factors; the full network opens on demand.
Contribution size 1 · Responsibility 0.5 · Fact impact 1 · Driver weight 1 · Driver → indicator −0.55 · Indicator importance 0.8 · Deviation factor −3 · Confidence 1
Contribution size 1 · Responsibility 0.5 · Fact impact 1 · Driver weight 1 · Driver → indicator −0.55 · Indicator importance 0.8 · Deviation factor −3 · Confidence 1
The most relevant dated facts, newest first.
11 March 2025 · Montenegro PSD PM
Assembly rejects Montenegro’s confidence motion after Spinumviva2 April 2024 · Montenegro PSD PM
Montenegro sworn prime minister of a Democratic Alliance minority cabinetHow the record is sourced and how the score is derived.
2 of 2 linked facts verified, drawing on 2 distinct sources (2024–2025).
Sources include Assembly of the Republic, Government of Portugal.
Sources
The score is formula-derived (Factrail formula v1, version 1.0.0), not an editorial verdict. Read the methodology.
By the Factrail desk · Method: how we source and score · Last reviewed · Sources: 2
An excerpt; the full analysis opens on request.
Luís Montenegro has been prime minister of Portugal since 2 April 2024, with a break as caretaker after 11 March 2025 until the 5 June 2025 re-oath. He remains prime minister on 5 September 2026. The office can swear a cabinet and table a confidence motion. It does not give him Chega’s parliamentary group or a unique later seat integer.
He is not a Ukraine co-belligerent on this catalog. ukraine-war is not minted and is not attached. 2014+/Karabakh/Kosovo/Taiwan events are not hung on territorial-revisionism. Soviet-scope rows are not used as primary homes.
The oath file is dated. On 2 April 2024 the President swore the XXIV Constitutional Government at Palácio Nacional da Ajuda after the 10 March 2024 election (Portugal.gov.pt (opens in a new tab); Reuters (opens in a new tab)). The Democratic Alliance was a reported 80 seats short of a majority in a 230-seat Assembly. António Costa’s November 2023 resignation had opened the snap. Costa is named as predecessor. He is not minted. André Ventura’s Chega was the third force. Ventura is not minted. Montenegro had refused a formal Chega pact. That refusal is stored as a completed political choice, not as a unique later firewall coefficient.
The collapse file is 11 March 2025. Montenegro tabled a confidence motion after the Spinumviva controversy — a consultancy he had founded, later in the family orbit, with reported clients including a casino-concession group. Opposition parties, including the Socialists and Chega, voted the motion down. Reuters and BBC recorded 142–88 with no abstentions (DAR (opens in a new tab); Reuters (opens in a new tab); BBC (opens in a new tab)). The Public Prosecution Service later closed a preliminary file without charges (reported December 2025). This page does not store Spinumviva as a conviction. It stores the lost vote.
The re-oath file is 5 June 2025. After the 18 May 2025 snap the President again swore Montenegro, now of the XXV Constitutional Government (Portugal.gov.pt (opens in a new tab)). Still without a majority.
The offsets that a commissioned-positive portrait would lead with are real only where dated. Refusing a formal Chega pact is a completed choice, not a rebate of 11 March 2025.
He accepted the 2 April 2024 premiership. He tabled the 11 March 2025 confidence motion. He accepted the 5 June 2025 re-oath. He does not sit as Ventura. Sharing the legislature with Chega and the Socialists is not a reason to drop 11 March 2025.
2 April 2024 opens the PSD-PM file. 11 March 2025 records the confidence rejection after Spinumviva. None of those dates hangs on ukraine-war, territorial-revisionism, or Glavlit. He connects to the mechanism only through dated facts.
This page does not promise an exact number. Direction on this chain is negative: a completed minority PSD/AD premiership after Costa, then a completed collapse on a conflict-of-interest confidence vote, then a still-minority return. It does not invent a unique seat integer. It does not invent a Spinumviva conviction. A later genuine contest would be a different fact with a different date. Costa and Ventura remain names on this file, not invented biographies.
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