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Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo

Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo

-100

Net harmfulFormula-derived score

The through-line is a personalist oil kleptocracy whose vice-president son lost a US DOJ settlement and a French biens-mal-acquis confiscation, plus a 94.9 percent 2022 return — not a Gulf of Guinea stability clerk. Still in office after that proclamation. The largest negative contribution to the formula-derived score is “National Electoral Board proclaims Obiang president-elect with 405,910 votes (94.9 percent)” (2022).

Top harm

National Electoral Board proclaims Obiang president-elect with 405,910 votes (94.9 percent)

−205 pts

PDGE personalist oil presidencydynastic vice-presidencycivic nullity around a 94.9 percent ballot

Impact

Biggest harms and offsets: signed contributions to the formula-derived score, ranked by size.

Biggest harms

Lowers the score

1 more ranked below in Timeline and Related.

Editorial assessment (context, not the score)

The heaviest documented costs sit on two clusters, not on a personality adjective.

First, foreign-court asset recovery against the vice-president son. On 10 October 2014 DOJ announced a settlement: Teodorín would relinquish a Malibu mansion, a Ferrari, and memorabilia purchased with corruption proceeds, with about $30 million in named pots. On 27 October 2017 Paris convicted him in absentia and ordered confiscation of seized French property. On 10 February 2020 the Court of Appeal confirmed and made a €30 million fine payable. On 28 July 2021 the Cour de cassation rejected the pourvoi. Obiang was not the defendant. He is the president of the oil state in which the son served.

Second, a closed ballot. On 26 November 2022 the National Electoral Board proclaimed 405,910 votes, 94.9 percent on the government press, turnout 98 percent. The United States recorded serious doubts about credibility. Civic space in a personalist oil republic is neighbouring, not a Soviet Glavlit row.

Confidence is high on the DOJ press release, Sherpa’s dated French chronology, and the government proclamation, and medium where allegation-grade “more than $300 million” sits beside a $30 million settlement. This paragraph is an assessment of those paths, not a substitute number.

Indicators affected

Sorted by the size of this person’s signed contribution. The observed state is the indicator’s own reading, not this person’s doing.

Accountability & contradictions

Claims against the record, the type of responsibility, and what is disputed.

Responsibility

What could change this assessment

  • Lifetime coverage has not been assessed: the record reflects stored facts only (2014–2022).

Causal path

Person → Fact → Driver → Indicator. Select a path to inspect its factors; the full network opens on demand.

  1. PersonTeodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo
  2. FactNational Electoral Board proclaims Obiang president-elect with 405,910 votes (94.9 percent)
  3. DriverObiang resource kleptocracy
  4. IndicatorHaving a say in government
−205 pts

Contribution size 1 · Responsibility 0.5 · Fact impact 1 · Driver weight 1 · Driver → indicator −0.85 · Indicator importance 0.8 · Deviation factor −3 · Confidence 1

  1. PersonTeodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo
  2. FactFrench Cour de cassation rejects Teodorín’s pourvoi; biens-mal-acquis file becomes definitive
  3. DriverObiang resource kleptocracy
  4. IndicatorHaving a say in government
−136 pts

Contribution size 1 · Responsibility 0.5 · Fact impact 1 · Driver weight 1 · Driver → indicator −0.85 · Indicator importance 0.8 · Deviation factor −3 · Confidence 1

Timeline

The most relevant dated facts, newest first.

  1. 26 November 2022 · Electoral Integrity and Competitiveness

    National Electoral Board proclaims Obiang president-elect with 405,910 votes (94.9 percent)
    −205 pts

  2. 28 July 2021 · Obiang resource kleptocracy

    French Cour de cassation rejects Teodorín’s pourvoi; biens-mal-acquis file becomes definitive
    −136 pts

  3. 10 February 2020 · Obiang resource kleptocracy

    Paris Court of Appeal confirms Teodorín conviction and makes €30 million fine payable
    −135 pts

  4. 27 October 2017 · Obiang resource kleptocracy

    Paris tribunal correctionnel convicts Teodorín and orders confiscation of seized French property
    −102 pts

  5. 10 October 2014 · Institutional Corruption

    US DOJ settles Kleptocracy case: Teodorín relinquishes more than $30 million in US assets

Evidence & methodology

How the record is sourced and how the score is derived.

5 of 5 linked facts verified, drawing on 4 distinct sources (2014–2022).

Sources include Oficina de Información y Prensa de Guinea Ecuatorial, Sherpa, Sherpa (chronology of the French court file), US Department of Justice.

Sources

  1. 1.Sherpa — 27 October 2017 Paris TGI condemnation in the Equatorial Guinea biens-mal-acquis fileSherpa (chronology of the French court file)
  2. 2.Government of Equatorial Guinea — Obiang proclaimed president-elect, 26 November 2022 (405,910 votes; 94.9 percent)Oficina de Información y Prensa de Guinea Ecuatorial
  3. 3.Sherpa — 28 July 2021 Cour de cassation rejects Teodorín’s pourvoiSherpa
  4. 4.US DOJ — Second Vice President of Equatorial Guinea agrees to relinquish more than $30 million of assets, 10 October 2014US Department of Justice

The score is formula-derived (Factrail formula v1, version 1.0.0), not an editorial verdict. Read the methodology.

By the Factrail desk · Method: how we source and score · Last reviewed · Sources: 4

Expert analysis

An excerpt; the full analysis opens on request.

Identity and office

Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo has been president of Equatorial Guinea since 3 August 1979. He remains commander-in-chief. He does not sit in Paris. He does preside over the oil state in which his son served as vice-president.

The court file is official. On 10 October 2014 the US Department of Justice announced a Kleptocracy Asset Recovery settlement with Teodoro Nguema Obiang Mangue, then second vice-president: he would relinquish a $30 million Malibu mansion, a Ferrari, and Michael Jackson memorabilia purchased with corruption proceeds; $20 million to a charity for Equatoguineans and $10.3 million forfeited to the United States for their benefit (DOJ OPA (opens in a new tab)). DOJ alleged more than $300 million in assets on a salary under $100,000. That allegation is not copied as a size.

On 27 October 2017 the Paris tribunal correctionnel convicted Teodorín in absentia of laundering the proceeds of public-fund diversion and related offences, with confiscation of seized French property (Sherpa chronology (opens in a new tab)). On 10 February 2020 the Paris Court of Appeal confirmed the conviction and confiscation and made a €30 million fine payable. On 28 July 2021 the Cour de cassation rejected his pourvoi. Teodorín is unresolved. This run does not mint a page for him.

The ballot file is official. On 26 November 2022 the National Electoral Board proclaimed 405,910 votes (government press (opens in a new tab); RFI, 27 November 2022 (opens in a new tab)). Government press stated 94.9 percent, turnout 98 percent. The United States recorded serious doubts. This page does not invent a unique fraud integer.

Documented benefits

The offsets that a commissioned-positive portrait would lead with are real only where dated, and they are not this assignment’s through-line. LNG trains and a 1979 end to Macías are neighbouring files. They are not a rebate of 10 October 2014 or 27 October 2017.

Contributions and limits of responsibility

He is president of the oil state. Teodorín was the named defendant. Sharing a household is not a reason to drop the US and French instruments from this presidency’s file. It is a reason not to write that Obiang was convicted in Paris. He was not. The Commission tabulated 2022. DOJ and the French courts wrote the asset file.

Causal chain through facts

The 2014 settlement and the 2017–2021 French judgments strengthen the owned kleptocracy driver and institutional corruption. The 2022 94.9 percent return weakens electoral integrity and civic space. They do not hang on Ukraine, eastern-drc-m23-rdf, or Soviet state-repression.

What the score does not say

This page does not promise an exact embezzled number. Direction on this chain is negative: the documented instruments are a closed ballot and a son’s confiscation file. A later genuine contest or a measured restitution series would be a different fact with a different date. Teodorín remains a name on this file, not a minted page.

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