Commodus is assassinated on 31 December 192 in a palace plot involving Marcia, Laetus, and Narcissus as received
On 31 December 192 Commodus was killed in a palace conspiracy as Dio and Herodian print. In the causal graph this event strengthens Judicial independence erosion (court capture), a driver that strengthens Rule of Law Gap from the Highest Governance Score — a worsening welfare path.
Read the full account
On 31 December 192 Commodus was killed in a palace conspiracy as Dio and Herodian print. This Fact is that assassination as a dated extra-legal outcome, not a constitutional court and not Pertinax’s next-day accession as a second twin.
Context
Contribution is complex because he is the victim of the killing and the author of the reign that produced the plotters.
Commodus’s documented role is bounded by other offices and collaborators named in the sources below.
Marcia, the prefect Laetus, and the cubicularius Eclectus are the named conspirators; the wrestler Narcissus is the killer in the bath after poison fails. This is others’ act, stored as the outcome of the reign. He did not author his own strangling.
Why it matters
Assassination as succession method is a judicial-independence erosion for the principate. Confidence high on the date and the plot heading.
Who was responsible
Contribution type and responsibility level for each recorded actor — not sole-author shorthand.
Commodus
PersonDirect responsibility
responsibility level 0.3 · verified
What changed
Fact → Driver → Indicator. Relationship strength orders the paths; it is not the observed indicator movement.
- FactCommodus is assassinated on 31 December 192 in a palace plot involving Marcia, Laetus, and Narcissus as received
- strengthensDriverJudicial independence erosion (court capture)
- strengthensIndicators (4)Rule of Law Gap from the Highest Governance Score
impact weight 0.5 · Effect from 31 December 192 · verified
Assassination as succession method is a judicial-independence erosion for the principate. Confidence high on the date and the plot heading.
- Worse
Strengthens · Relationship strength 0.36 (weight 0.5 × strength 0.72)
Observed
43.9 Score · 43.9 above the normal line (2024)
Worse than normal26 readings, 1996–2024: rose from 43 Score to 43.9 Score.
Normal is zero · any amount = worse
Weakens · Relationship strength 0.35 (weight 0.5 × strength 0.7)
Observed
0.55 index score (0-1) · 0.26 below the normal line (2024)
Worse than normalAbove normal = better
Weakens · Relationship strength 0.34 (weight 0.5 × strength 0.69)
Observed
0.62 score from 0 to 1 · 0.25 below the normal line (2024)
Worse than normal125 readings, 1900–2024: rose from 0.37 score from 0 to 1 to 0.62 score from 0 to 1.
Above normal = better
All indicators on this path (4)
Weakens · Relationship strength 0.15 (weight 0.5 × strength 0.3)
Observed
42.5 index score (0-100) · 7.53 below the normal line (2025)
Worse than normalAbove normal = better
Evidence
The sources behind this fact and its verification state.
- 1.Herodian, Roman History — Livius EnglishLivius.org · High credibility · verified
- 2.Cassius Dio Book 73 (Loeb English) — CommodusLacusCurtius / University of Chicago · High credibility · verified
What the sources establish
Loeb Dio and Herodian independently date 31 December 192 and name Marcia, Laetus, and Narcissus.
Established: 31 December 192 killing as received. Not established: a unique reconstructed kill-list he had drafted that day.
Commodus did not file a later UNESCO form, a later Loeb colophon, or a later museum label as a personal act. A bath strangling is not the senate’s next-day damnatio.
Causal path
How this event connects to drivers and indicators in the graph.
- ActorCommodus
- contributed toFactCommodus is assassinated on 31 December 192 in a palace plot involving Marcia, Laetus, and Narcissus as received
- strengthensDriverJudicial independence erosion (court capture)
- strengthensIndicatorRule of Law Gap from the Highest Governance Score
Cite this page
Factrail. (2026). Commodus is assassinated on 31 December 192 in a palace plot involving Marcia, Laetus, and Narcissus as received. Factrail. https://factrail.ai/facts/com-assassination-192
https://factrail.ai/facts/com-assassination-192
Accessed 16 October 2026.
By the Factrail desk · Method: how we source and score · Last reviewed
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