The World Justice Project Rule of Law Index measures adherence to the rule of law as experienced by the public and assessed by legal experts, on a 0-1 scale (1 = strongest rule of law). Each country score averages eight factors: constraints on government powers, absence of corruption, open government, fundamental rights, order and security, regulatory enforcement, civil justice, and criminal justice. The 2024 edition covers 142 countries and jurisdictions (95% of world population), drawing on over 214,000 household surveys and 3,500 expert surveys. This series tracks the leading-economy frontier (the top-ranked country, Denmark) as a stable normal-line reference, against which a global rule-of-law recession has run for seven consecutive years.
How to read it
Higher is better — readings above the norm count as better.
Measured value over time. The line runs green while the indicator is better than its dashed norm and red when it’s worse.
Each driver linked to this indicator, strongest pull first, on the same timeline above. Markers are the facts that moved that driver. These are modelled influences — treat them as correlational unless a documented causal edge is shown.
Eroding judicial independence lowers WJP factors for constraints on government powers and civil/criminal justice, dragging the overall index down.
Accountability pressure that compels reform can lift WJP constraints-on-government and justice factors, with a lagged and partial effect.
State capture bends regulators, procurement and oversight bodies to private interests, directly eroding the rule of law.
Sustained organized violence erodes order, civil justice and constraints on power, lowering rule-of-law scores in affected states.
Credible, institutionalized anti-corruption enforcement strengthens accountability, civil justice and constraints on power — core components of the rule-of-law index.
Peace agreements often pair de-escalation with institution-building and transitional justice, modestly and slowly strengthening rule of law.
Projected scenarios from the Factrail model. These describe what may happen under stated assumptions — they are not confirmed facts and may change as new data arrives.
Horizon: Jul 1, 2026 – Dec 31, 2028
Factrail's baseline projection is a slow, partial rise in the V-Dem judicial constraints index through 2028 as sustained EU accountability pressure and Poland's restoration work against court capture, but with the global rule-of-law recession capping the gain. The recovery is modest and lagged, not decisive.
Assumptions
This indicator’s slice of Factrail’s verified causal web — the people, facts, drivers and welfare indicators it connects to. Select any node to trace a path.
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Assumes EU enforcement tools (penalties, conditionality, post-Article 7 monitoring) remain active; Poland's restoration is not reversed by cohabitation; Hungary does not regress sharply enough to offset gains; and the broad global rule-of-law recession continues, limiting any upside. Impact strengths and lags follow the dossier's driver-indicator links (~540-day lag for accountability pressure).
This is a projected scenario, not a confirmed fact.
Updated
The World Justice Project Rule of Law Index measures adherence to the rule of law as experienced by the public and assessed by legal experts, on a 0-1 scale (1 = strongest rule of law). Each country score averages eight factors: constraints on government powers, absence of corruption, open government, fundamental rights, order and security, regulatory enforcement, civil justice, and criminal justice. The 2024 edition covers 142 countries and jurisdictions (95% of world population), drawing on over 214,000 household surveys and 3,500 expert surveys. This series tracks the leading-economy frontier (the top-ranked country, Denmark) as a stable normal-line reference, against which a global rule-of-law recession has run for seven consecutive years.