Snap election returns Tokayev with 70.96 percent official
On 9 June 2019 a snap presidential election returned Kassym-Jomart Tokayev with 70.96 percent official. In the causal graph this event weakens Electoral Integrity and Competitiveness, a driver that strengthens Having a say in government — a worsening welfare path.

Read the full account
On 9 June 2019 a snap presidential election returned Kassym-Jomart Tokayev with 70.96 percent official. ODIHR’s final report found that the election took place in a political environment dominated by the incumbent and lacked genuine political competition.
Context
He ran as the designated successor. The CEC tabulated. ODIHR observed.
Acting 20 March; election 9 June 2019; 2022 snap later. Keep dates. Keep Snap election returns Tokayev with 70.96 percent official on 2019-06-09 separate from neighbouring succession, CSTO, shoot-to-kill, 238-list, and snap-election instruments.
The president of Kazakhstan is head of state and commander-in-chief. He can declare an emergency, invite a CSTO contingent, and order lethal force. He does not write ODIHR final reports, does not sit as a UNGA teller, and a Prosecutor-General list is not converted here into a unique UCDP integer.
Why it matters
The path is electoral integrity: a completed successor ballot ODIHR did not read as genuine competition.
Who was responsible
Contribution type and responsibility level for each recorded actor — not sole-author shorthand.
Kassym-Jomart Tokayev
PersonDirect responsibility
verified
He ran and was certified. The CEC tabulated. ODIHR did not treat it as genuine competition.
What changed
Fact → Driver → Indicator. Relationship strength orders the paths; it is not the observed indicator movement.
- FactSnap election returns Tokayev with 70.96 percent official
- weakensDriverElectoral Integrity and Competitiveness
- strengthensIndicators (3)Having a say in government
impact weight 1 · Effect from 9 June 2019 · verified
A completed 2019 successor ballot without genuine competition is a dated weakening of electoral integrity.
Strengthens · Relationship strength 0.8 (weight 1 × strength 0.8)
Observed
29.8% of population aged 16-65 years · 8.13 below the normal line (2023)
Worse than normalTwo readings: 30.2% of population aged 16-65 years (2021) and 29.8% of population aged 16-65 years (2023).
20212023 Above normal = better
Strengthens · Relationship strength 0.68 (weight 1 × strength 0.68)
Observed
0.53 score from 0 to 1 · 0.34 below the normal line (2024)
Worse than normal125 readings, 1900–2024: rose from 0.17 score from 0 to 1 to 0.53 score from 0 to 1.
Above normal = better
Weakens · Relationship strength 0.51 (weight 1 × strength 0.51)
Observed
45 Score · 45 above the normal line (2024)
Worse than normal7 readings, 2018–2024: rose from 43.8 Score to 45 Score.
Normal is zero · any amount = worse
Evidence
The sources behind this fact and its verification state.
- 1.OSCE/ODIHR — final report, 9 June 2019 early presidential electionOSCE/ODIHR · High credibility · verified
- 2.CEC of Kazakhstan — 9 June 2019 presidential election neighbourhoodCEC Kazakhstan · High credibility · verified
What the sources establish
CEC Kazakhstan carries the official instrument or communique. OSCE/ODIHR records the same dated act independently.
Established: CEC recorded 70.96 percent on 9 June 2019; ODIHR found a lack of genuine political competition.
Not established: That ODIHR authenticated a competitive contest.
The CEC tabulated. ODIHR did not treat it as genuine competition.. A later repeal, court stay, or successor order would be a different Fact with a different date. That pair identifies Snap election returns Tokayev with 70.96 percent official, not a later speech about Snap election returns Tokayev with 70.96 percent official.
Co-authors and later implementers named in Context remain on the file. If a later repeal, stay, or successor instrument exists, it needs its own date and its own row. The contribution described on this Person row is limited to He ran and was certified. The CEC tabulated. That limit is the alternative to treating office-holding as authorship of every later series.
Causal path
How this event connects to drivers and indicators in the graph.
- ActorKassym-Jomart Tokayev
- contributed toFactSnap election returns Tokayev with 70.96 percent official
- weakensDriverElectoral Integrity and Competitiveness
- strengthensIndicatorHaving a say in government
Cite this page
Factrail. (2026). Snap election returns Tokayev with 70.96 percent official. Factrail. https://factrail.ai/facts/kz-election-2019
https://factrail.ai/facts/kz-election-2019
Accessed 16 October 2026.
By the Factrail desk · Method: how we source and score · Last reviewed
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