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Fighting in Juba opens the South Sudanese civil war

On 15 December 2013 fighting in Juba between forces loyal to President Salva Kiir and forces loyal to dismissed vice-president Riek Machar opened the South Sudanese civil war. In the causal graph this event strengthens Kiir oil patronage rule, a driver that weakens Having a say in government — a worsening welfare path.

Sources: [1][2]

Read the full account

On 15 December 2013 fighting in Juba between forces loyal to President Salva Kiir and forces loyal to dismissed vice-president Riek Machar opened the South Sudanese civil war. Kiir accused Machar of a coup. Machar denied it. Later UN and AU products recorded mass killings. Those tallies are contested.

Context

The fighting followed the July 2013 sackings. Machar is unresolved.

15 December Juba fighting; later 2018 agreement stored as neighbourhood. Keep Fighting in Juba opens the South Sudanese civil war on 2013-12-15 separate from neighbouring Kiir instruments.

The President of South Sudan is head of state and commander-in-chief. He can sack a vice-president, announce an election delay, and sign a constitutional amendment. He does not write UN Commission statements, AP dispatches, or IPC caseloads.

Why it matters

The path is the owned oil-patronage driver: a completed elite war after the July purge.

Who was responsible

Contribution type and responsibility level for each recorded actor — not sole-author shorthand.

  • Salva Kiir

    Person

    Direct responsibility

    verified

    He was president and commander when Juba fought. Sharing the outbreak with Machar is not a reason to drop 15 December 2013.

What changed

Fact → Driver → Indicator. Relationship strength orders the paths; it is not the observed indicator movement.

    1. FactFighting in Juba opens the South Sudanese civil war
    2. strengthensDriverKiir oil patronage rule
    3. weakensIndicatorHaving a say in government
    Worsening path

    impact weight 1 · Effect from 15 December 2013 · verified

    A completed 2013 civil-war outbreak after the cabinet purge is a dated strengthening of oil-patronage rule.

    • Having a say in government

      via Kiir oil patronage rule

      Worse

      Weakens · Relationship strength 0.8 (weight 1 × strength 0.8)

      Observed

      29.8% of population aged 16-65 years · 8.13 below the normal line (2023)

      Worse than normal

      Two readings: 30.2% of population aged 16-65 years (2021) and 29.8% of population aged 16-65 years (2023).

      20212023

      Above normal = better

    1. FactFighting in Juba opens the South Sudanese civil war
    2. weakensDriverCivic Space
    3. strengthensIndicators (3)Having a say in government
    Worsening path

    impact weight 1 · Effect from 15 December 2013 · verified

    A completed capital war is a dated weakening of civic space.

Evidence

The sources behind this fact and its verification state.

Verified2 sources on file
  1. 1.BBC — South Sudan fighting in Juba, December 2013BBC News · High credibility · verified
  2. 2.Reuters — South Sudan rival forces battle in Juba, December 2013Reuters · High credibility · verified
What the sources establish

Reuters carries the official instrument or communique. BBC News records the same dated act independently.

Established: Fighting in Juba on 15 December 2013 opened a civil war between Kiir’s and Machar’s forces.

Not established: A unique death integer reconciling later UN and AU products, or that Machar is minted.

Sharing the outbreak with Machar is not a reason to drop 15 December 2013.. A later repeal, court stay, or successor order would be a different Fact with a different date. That pair identifies Fighting in Juba opens the South Sudanese civil war, not a later speech about Fighting in Juba opens the South Sudanese civil war.

Co-authors and later implementers named in Context remain on the file. If a later repeal, stay, or successor instrument exists, it needs its own date and its own row. The contribution described on this Person row is limited to He was president and commander when Juba fought. That limit is the alternative to treating office-holding as authorship of every later series.

Causal path

How this event connects to drivers and indicators in the graph.

  1. ActorSalva Kiir
  2. contributed toFactFighting in Juba opens the South Sudanese civil war
  3. strengthensDrivers (2)Kiir oil patronage rule
  4. weakensIndicatorHaving a say in government

Cite this page

Factrail. (2026). Fighting in Juba opens the South Sudanese civil war. Factrail. https://factrail.ai/facts/ss-kiir-juba-2013

https://factrail.ai/facts/ss-kiir-juba-2013

Accessed 15 October 2026.

By the Factrail desk · Method: how we source and score · Last reviewed

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