Valentinian II dies in 392; western succession crisis pulls Theodosius toward sole rule
On 15 May 392 Valentinian II died at Vienne; the succession crisis under Arbogast led toward Eugenius and Theodosius’s later civil war. Surviving public files are the Theodosian Code (438 compilation as evidence), chronicles, Ambrose letters, and encyclopedias. In the causal graph this event weakens Democratic Resilience, a driver that strengthens Having a say in government — a worsening welfare path.
Read the full account
On 15 May 392 Valentinian II died at Vienne; the succession crisis under Arbogast led toward Eugenius and Theodosius’s later civil war.
Context
Colleague death destabilises. Britannica and DIR independently date Valentinian II’s death and the slide to usurpation.
Theodosius I’s documented role is bounded by other offices and collaborators named in the sources below.
Conventional years are 347–395. Surviving public files are the Theodosian Code (438 compilation as evidence), chronicles, Ambrose letters, and encyclopedias. Theodosius did not typeset Fordham.
Why it matters
Democratic-resilience cost path. High confidence on the death date and crisis.
Who was responsible
Contribution type and responsibility level for each recorded actor — not sole-author shorthand.
Theodosius I
PersonDirect responsibility
responsibility level 0.4 · verified
Valentinian’s death opened a western crisis. Arbogast and Eugenius act; Theodosius responds.
What changed
Fact → Driver → Indicator. Relationship strength orders the paths; it is not the observed indicator movement.
- FactValentinian II dies in 392; western succession crisis pulls Theodosius toward sole rule
- weakensDriverDemocratic Resilience
- strengthensIndicators (3)Having a say in government
impact weight 0.5 · Effect from 15 May 392 · verified
Strengthens · Relationship strength 0.35 (weight 0.5 × strength 0.7)
Observed
29.8% of population aged 16-65 years · 8.13 below the normal line (2023)
Worse than normalTwo readings: 30.2% of population aged 16-65 years (2021) and 29.8% of population aged 16-65 years (2023).
20212023 Above normal = better
Strengthens · Relationship strength 0.23 (weight 0.5 × strength 0.45)
Observed
0.53 score from 0 to 1 · 0.34 below the normal line (2024)
Worse than normal125 readings, 1900–2024: rose from 0.17 score from 0 to 1 to 0.53 score from 0 to 1.
Above normal = better
Strengthens · Relationship strength 0.23 (weight 0.5 × strength 0.45)
Observed
0.55 index score (0-1) · 0.26 below the normal line (2024)
Worse than normalAbove normal = better
Evidence
The sources behind this fact and its verification state.
- 1.De Imperatoribus Romanis — Theodosius ILoyola University Chicago · High credibility · verified
- 2.Britannica — Theodosius IEncyclopaedia Britannica · High credibility · verified
What the sources establish
Britannica and De Imperatoribus Romanis independently date Valentinian II’s death in May 392 and the ensuing western crisis.
Established: Valentinian II died in May 392, opening the Eugenius crisis. Not established: Theodosius’s personal presence at Vienne.
Theodosius I did not file a later UNESCO form, a later Loeb colophon, or a later museum label as a personal act. Valentinian’s death is not Frigidus. Keep May 392 off 6 September 394.
Causal path
How this event connects to drivers and indicators in the graph.
- ActorTheodosius I
- contributed toFactValentinian II dies in 392; western succession crisis pulls Theodosius toward sole rule
- weakensDriverDemocratic Resilience
- strengthensIndicatorHaving a say in government
Cite this page
Factrail. (2026). Valentinian II dies in 392; western succession crisis pulls Theodosius toward sole rule. Factrail. https://factrail.ai/facts/theo-valentinian-ii-death-392
https://factrail.ai/facts/theo-valentinian-ii-death-392
Accessed 16 October 2026.
By the Factrail desk · Method: how we source and score · Last reviewed
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