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Assimi Goïta

Assimi Goïta

-100

Net harmfulFormula-derived score

The through-line is junta rule plus the AES break: a second coup, a Constitutional Court investiture, the 16 September 2023 Liptako-Gourma Charter, then the 28 January 2024 ECOWAS withdrawal — not a pan-African clerk. Still in office at apply. The largest negative contribution to the formula-derived score is “Constitutional Court names Goïta interim president after the 24 May coup” (2021).

Top harm

Constitutional Court names Goïta interim president after the 24 May coup

−200 pts

Military transitional presidencyAlliance of Sahel States mutual defenceECOWAS rupture

Impact

Biggest harms and offsets: signed contributions to the formula-derived score, ranked by size.

Biggest harms

Lowers the score
Editorial assessment (context, not the score)

The heaviest documented costs sit on three clusters, not on a personality adjective.

First, the second coup. Soldiers detained Ndaw and Ouane on 24 May 2021. The Court named Goïta interim president on 28 May. Elections promised for 2022 did not occur on that clock.

Second, AES. He signed the Liptako-Gourma Charter on 16 September 2023. Traoré and Tiani signed with him. They are not minted here.

Third, the ECOWAS break. The 28 January 2024 joint communiqué, circulated as S/2024/120, announced immediate withdrawal. ECOWAS said its protocol takes a year. This page stores both.

Confidence is high on the court title, the signed charter, and the communiqué, and medium where later election calendars slip without a new ISIE return. This paragraph is an assessment of those paths, not a substitute number.

Indicators affected

Sorted by the size of this person’s signed contribution. The observed state is the indicator’s own reading, not this person’s doing.

Accountability & contradictions

Claims against the record, the type of responsibility, and what is disputed.

Responsibility

What could change this assessment

  • Lifetime coverage has not been assessed: the record reflects stored facts only (2021–2024).

Causal path

Person → Fact → Driver → Indicator. Select a path to inspect its factors; the full network opens on demand.

  1. PersonAssimi Goïta
  2. FactConstitutional Court names Goïta interim president after the 24 May coup
  3. DriverGoïta junta and AES break
  4. IndicatorHaving a say in government
−200 pts

Contribution size 1 · Responsibility 0.5 · Fact impact 1 · Driver weight 1 · Driver → indicator −0.8 · Indicator importance 0.8 · Deviation factor −3 · Confidence 1

  1. PersonAssimi Goïta
  2. FactGoïta joins the 28 January 2024 communiqué withdrawing Mali from ECOWAS
  3. DriverGoïta junta and AES break
  4. IndicatorHaving a say in government
−149 pts

Contribution size 1 · Responsibility 0.5 · Fact impact 1 · Driver weight 1 · Driver → indicator −0.8 · Indicator importance 0.8 · Deviation factor −3 · Confidence 1

Timeline

The most relevant dated facts, newest first.

  1. 28 January 2024 · Electoral Integrity and Competitiveness

    Goïta joins the 28 January 2024 communiqué withdrawing Mali from ECOWAS
    −149 pts

  2. 16 September 2023 · Goïta junta and AES break

    Goïta signs the Liptako-Gourma Charter establishing the Alliance of Sahel States
    −96 pts

  3. 28 May 2021 · Electoral Integrity and Competitiveness

    Constitutional Court names Goïta interim president after the 24 May coup
    −200 pts

Evidence & methodology

How the record is sourced and how the score is derived.

3 of 3 linked facts verified, drawing on 3 distinct sources (2021–2024).

Sources include United Nations Security Council, United Nations Security Council (Mali depositary), Reuters.

Sources

  1. 1.S/2024/120 — joint communiqué of 28 January 2024 withdrawing from ECOWASUnited Nations Security Council
  2. 2.S/2023/695 — certified Liptako-Gourma Charter signed 16 September 2023 at BamakoUnited Nations Security Council (Mali depositary)
  3. 3.Reuters — Constitutional Court declares Goïta interim president, 28 May 2021Reuters

The score is formula-derived (Factrail formula v1, version 1.0.0), not an editorial verdict. Read the methodology.

By the Factrail desk · Method: how we source and score · Last reviewed · Sources: 3

Expert analysis

An excerpt; the full analysis opens on request.

Identity and office

Assimi Goïta has been transitional president of Mali since 28 May 2021. He remains commander. He does not write a Security Council symbol. He did sign the Liptako-Gourma Charter.

The coup file is dated. On 24 May 2021 soldiers detained Ndaw and Ouane. On 28 May the Constitutional Court declared Goïta interim president (Reuters (opens in a new tab)). He was sworn on 7 June. Ndaw is unresolved.

The AES file is a UN-circulated charter. S/2023/695 transmits the Liptako-Gourma Charter signed at Bamako on 16 September 2023 by Goïta, Traoré, and Tiani (S/2023/695 (opens in a new tab)). Traoré and Tiani are unresolved. This run does not mint them.

The ECOWAS file is a joint communiqué. S/2024/120 transmits the 28 January 2024 decision to withdraw immediately (Reuters (opens in a new tab)). ECOWAS said it had not been notified and that withdrawal takes a year.

Documented benefits

The offsets that a commissioned-positive portrait would lead with are real only where dated, and they are not this assignment’s through-line. Anti-jihadist operations are neighbouring files. They are not a unique KIA rebate of 24 May 2021.

Contributions and limits of responsibility

He led the 2021 detention. The Court named him. He signed AES. He joined the ECOWAS communiqué. Sharing signatures with Traoré and Tiani is not a reason to drop 16 September 2023. It is a reason not to mint them.

Causal chain through facts

The 2021 court investiture strengthens the owned junta driver and weakens electoral integrity and civic space. AES and the ECOWAS exit strengthen the owned driver. They do not hang on ukraine-war, eastern-drc-m23-rdf, territorial-revisionism, or Soviet state-repression.

What the score does not say

This page does not promise an exact militant census. Direction on this chain is negative: the documented instruments replace a transitional civilian president, delay a promised poll, and exit the regional civilian-rule bloc. A later genuine contest would be a different fact with a different date.

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