Net harmfulFormula-derived score
The through-line is the 2023 coup, the 16 September 2023 AES charter, and the 28 January 2024 ECOWAS withdrawal — not a pan-African clerk. Still in office at apply. The largest negative contribution to the formula-derived score is “Presidential guard detains Bazoum; Tiani declared CNSP head of state on 28 July” (2023).
Biggest harms and offsets: signed contributions to the formula-derived score, ranked by size.
via Tiani 2023 Niger coup → Having a say in government
26 July 2023 · Direct contribution
via Tiani 2023 Niger coup → Having a say in government
28 January 2024 · Direct contribution
via Tiani 2023 Niger coup → Having a say in government
16 September 2023 · Direct contribution
The heaviest documented costs sit on three clusters, not on a personality adjective.
First, the coup. On 26 July 2023 the presidential guard detained Bazoum. On 28 July Tiani was declared CNSP head of state; the constitution was suspended. Bazoum is unresolved. This page does not invent a unique detention-day size.
Second, AES. He signed the Liptako-Gourma Charter on 16 September 2023. Goïta and Traoré are live.
Third, ECOWAS. The 28 January 2024 communiqué announced immediate withdrawal. ECOWAS said its protocol takes a year.
Confidence is high on the televised ouster, the signed charter, and the communiqué, and medium where Bazoum’s later detention status sits without a court judgment stored here. This paragraph is an assessment of those paths, not a substitute number.
Sorted by the size of this person’s signed contribution. The observed state is the indicator’s own reading, not this person’s doing.
−444 pts to the score
Observed
29.8% of population aged 16-65 years · 8.13 below the normal line (2023)
Worse than normalTwo readings: 30.2% of population aged 16-65 years (2021) and 29.8% of population aged 16-65 years (2023).
Above normal = better · 2023–2024 · 3 facts, full confidence · formula deviation factor −3
Linked through a verified fact
Observed
0.53 · 0.34 below the normal line (2024)
Worse than normal125 readings, 1900–2024: rose from 0.17 to 0.53.
Above normal = better
Linked through a verified fact
Observed
123 · 123 above the normal line (2025)
Worse than normal8 readings, 2018–2025: rose from 32 to 123.
Normal is zero · any amount = worse
Linked through a verified fact
Observed
45 · 45 above the normal line (2024)
Worse than normal7 readings, 2018–2024: rose from 43.8 to 45.
Normal is zero · any amount = worse
Claims against the record, the type of responsibility, and what is disputed.
Responsibility
What could change this assessment
Person → Fact → Driver → Indicator. Select a path to inspect its factors; the full network opens on demand.
Contribution size 1 · Responsibility 0.5 · Fact impact 1 · Driver weight 1 · Driver → indicator −0.8 · Indicator importance 0.8 · Deviation factor −3 · Confidence 1
Contribution size 1 · Responsibility 0.5 · Fact impact 1 · Driver weight 1 · Driver → indicator −0.8 · Indicator importance 0.8 · Deviation factor −3 · Confidence 1
The most relevant dated facts, newest first.
28 January 2024 · Electoral Integrity and Competitiveness
Tiani joins the 28 January 2024 communiqué withdrawing Niger from ECOWAS16 September 2023 · Tiani 2023 Niger coup
Tiani signs the Liptako-Gourma Charter establishing the Alliance of Sahel States26 July 2023 · Electoral Integrity and Competitiveness
Presidential guard detains Bazoum; Tiani declared CNSP head of state on 28 JulyHow the record is sourced and how the score is derived.
3 of 3 linked facts verified, drawing on 3 distinct sources (2023–2024).
Sources include United Nations Security Council, United Nations Security Council (Mali depositary), Reuters.
Sources
The score is formula-derived (Factrail formula v1, version 1.0.0), not an editorial verdict. Read the methodology.
By the Factrail desk · Method: how we source and score · Last reviewed · Sources: 3
An excerpt; the full analysis opens on request.
Abdourahamane Tiani has been CNSP head of state of Niger since 28 July 2023, after the 26 July detention of Mohamed Bazoum. He remains commander. He does not write a Security Council symbol. He did sign the Liptako-Gourma Charter.
The coup file is dated. On 26 July 2023 presidential-guard soldiers held Bazoum. Colonel Amadou Abdramane announced institutions suspended (Reuters (opens in a new tab)). On 28 July Tiani was declared head of state (Reuters (opens in a new tab)). Bazoum is unresolved.
The AES file is S/2023/695, signed 16 September 2023. Assimi Goïta and Ibrahim Traoré are live counterparts.
The ECOWAS file is S/2024/120, 28 January 2024 (Reuters (opens in a new tab)). ECOWAS said withdrawal takes a year.
The offsets that a commissioned-positive portrait would lead with are real only where dated, and they are not this assignment’s through-line. Anti-jihadist operations are neighbouring. They are not a unique KIA rebate of 26 July 2023.
He commanded the guard that detained Bazoum. He accepted the CNSP title. He signed AES. He joined the ECOWAS communiqué. Sharing signatures with Goïta and Traoré is not a reason to drop 16 September 2023.
The 2023 coup strengthens the owned Niger-coup driver and weakens civic space and electoral integrity. AES and the ECOWAS exit strengthen the owned driver.
This page does not promise an exact detention-day census. Direction on this chain is negative: the documented instruments detain an elected president, suspend the constitution, and exit the regional civilian-rule bloc. A later genuine contest would be a different fact with a different date.
On 26 July 2023 members of Niger’s presidential guard detained elected President Mohamed Bazoum in Niamey. Two days later General Abdourahamane Tiani, who had commanded the guard, appeared on state television as head of the National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland and declared himself head of state. A Reuters report republished by ThePrint (opens in a new tab) described the suspension of the constitution, dissolution of existing institutions and consolidation of the coup authority. This origin matters because the takeover was not initially an external military column defeating the government; it began with the force responsible for presidential protection turning on the president and then securing broader military backing. The coup triggered sanctions and a confrontation with ECOWAS, which demanded Bazoum’s restoration and discussed the possibility of force. Tiani’s authority therefore developed under immediate regional pressure while the deposed president remained in custody, making constitutional legitimacy and coercive control central to the new regime from its first days.
Less than two months after the coup, Niger joined Mali and Burkina Faso in the Alliance of Sahel States. The 16 September 2023 charter created a mutual-defence commitment under which an attack on one member would be treated as an attack on all, according to Voice of America (opens in a new tab). The pact was directly relevant to Niger because ECOWAS had threatened military intervention after Bazoum’s removal. On 28 January 2024 the same three governments announced that they were leaving ECOWAS, deepening the break with the organisation that had imposed sanctions and demanded restoration of constitutional rule. These steps turned Tiani’s domestic seizure of power into part of a wider Sahel realignment. Niger’s pre-coup partnerships with Western militaries and regional institutions were progressively reworked while the three juntas coordinated diplomacy and security policy. The consequence was a new political geography: governments that had each come to power through coups began treating their shared isolation from ECOWAS as a basis for collective institutions rather than as a temporary crisis to be resolved through rapid civilian transitions.
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