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COP28 adopts the UAE Consensus in Dubai

On 13 December 2023 COP28 in Dubai adopted the UAE Consensus, the first COP covering decision to mention transitioning away from fossil fuels. In the causal graph this event strengthens Decarbonization and climate-mitigation policy, a driver that weakens Global CO2 emissions per capita — an improving welfare path.

Sources: [1][2]

Read the full account

On 13 December 2023 COP28 in Dubai adopted the UAE Consensus, the first COP covering decision to mention transitioning away from fossil fuels. Mohamed bin Zayed hosted as president of the UAE; Sultan Al Jaber gavelled.

Context

UNFCCC parties adopted. Al Jaber, an ADNOC chief, presided. MBZ appointed him and hosted leaders. He did not write other parties’ NDCs. ADNOC expansion is a neighbouring fossil file, not this gavel.

ADNOC expansion is stored separately. COP29/COP30 are later parties.

The president of the United Arab Emirates is elected by the Federal Supreme Council of the seven emirates and is, in this case, also Ruler of Abu Dhabi and supreme commander of the armed forces. He does not write UNFCCC consensus texts by himself, IAEA operating licences, Israeli Knesset statutes, or UN panel reports.

Why it matters

Hosting is not the same as ADNOC stopping expansion.

Who was responsible

Contribution type and responsibility level for each recorded actor — not sole-author shorthand.

  • Mohammed Bin Zayed Al Nahyan

    Person

    Direct responsibility

    responsibility level 0.45 · verified

    He hosted and appointed the COP president. Al Jaber gavelled. UNFCCC parties adopted.

What changed

Fact → Driver → Indicator. Relationship strength orders the paths; it is not the observed indicator movement.

    1. FactCOP28 adopts the UAE Consensus in Dubai
    2. strengthensDriverDecarbonization and climate-mitigation policy
    3. weakensIndicators (3)Global CO2 emissions per capita
    Improving path

    impact weight 0.45 · Effect from 13 December 2023 · verified

    A completed COP text naming a fossil-fuel transition is a diplomatic decarbonization-policy instrument.

    1. FactCOP28 adopts the UAE Consensus in Dubai
    2. weakensDriverFossil-fuel subsidies
    3. weakensIndicators (3)Renewable share of global electricity generation
    Improving path

    impact weight 0.25 · Effect from 13 December 2023 · verified

    Transition language is an attempted subsidy-and-production-path signal, with national ADNOC expansion stored separately.

    • Renewable share of global electricity generation

      via Fossil-fuel subsidies

      Better

      Weakens · Relationship strength 0.14 (weight 0.25 × strength 0.55)

      Observed

      30% of electricity generation · 11 above the normal line (2023)

      Better than normal

      6 readings, 2000–2023: rose from 18.9% of electricity generation to 30% of electricity generation.

      Above normal = better

    • Global CO2 emissions per capita

      via Fossil-fuel subsidies

      Better

      Strengthens · Relationship strength 0.1 (weight 0.25 × strength 0.4)

      Observed

      4.73 tonnes CO2 per person per year · 2.43 above the normal line (2024)

      Worse than normal

      Two readings: 4.71 tonnes CO2 per person per year (2023) and 4.73 tonnes CO2 per person per year (2024).

      20232024

      Above normal = worse

    • Population-weighted PM2.5 air pollution exposure (global)

      via Fossil-fuel subsidies

      Better

      Strengthens · Relationship strength 0.07 (weight 0.25 × strength 0.3)

      Observed

      32.9 micrograms per cubic metre (annual mean, population-weighted) · 27.9 above the normal line (2023)

      Worse than normal

      3 readings, 2021–2023: fell from 33.2 micrograms per cubic metre (annual mean, population-weighted) to 32.9 micrograms per cubic metre (annual mean, population-weighted).

      Above normal = worse

Evidence

The sources behind this fact and its verification state.

Verified2 sources on file
  1. 1.Reuters — COP28 deal signals beginning of the end of fossil-fuels eraReuters · High credibility · verified
  2. 2.UNFCCC — COP28 UAE Consensus, December 2023UNFCCC · High credibility · verified
What the sources establish

UNFCCC carries the official instrument or communique. Reuters records the same dated act independently.

Established: a 13 December 2023 COP28 UAE Consensus adopted in Dubai, independently reported.

Not established: a unique 2024 global emissions coefficient from the gavel, or that ADNOC cancelled expansions that hour.

Al Jaber gavelled. UNFCCC parties adopted. A later repeal, court stay, or successor order would be a different Fact with a different date. That pair identifies COP28 adopts the UAE Consensus in Dubai, not a later speech about COP28 adopts the UAE Consensus in Dubai.

Co-authors and later implementers named in Context remain on the file. If a later repeal, stay, or successor decree exists, it needs its own date and its own row. The contribution described on this Person row is limited to He hosted and appointed the COP president. Al Jaber gavelled. UNFCCC parties adopted. That limit is the alternative to treating office-holding as authorship of every later series.

Causal path

How this event connects to drivers and indicators in the graph.

  1. ActorMohammed Bin Zayed Al Nahyan
  2. contributed toFactCOP28 adopts the UAE Consensus in Dubai
  3. strengthensDrivers (2)Decarbonization and climate-mitigation policy
  4. weakensIndicatorGlobal CO2 emissions per capita

Cite this page

Factrail. (2026). COP28 adopts the UAE Consensus in Dubai. Factrail. https://factrail.ai/facts/ae-cop28-uae-consensus-2023

https://factrail.ai/facts/ae-cop28-uae-consensus-2023

Accessed 17 October 2026.

By the · Method: how we source and score · Last reviewed

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