Lula wins a second presidential term
On 29 October 2006 Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won a presidential runoff for a second term after Mensalão had already broken. In the causal graph this event strengthens Democratic Resilience, a driver that strengthens Having a say in government — an improving welfare path.
Read the full account
On 29 October 2006 Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won a presidential runoff for a second term after Mensalão had already broken.
Context
Geraldo Alckmin was the PSDB challenger. Neighbouring Mensalão is the parent scandal still in the courts. The TSE certified.
Mensalão June 2005 is neighbouring. PAC January 2007 is a child investment launch. Bolsa Família 2003 is a different statute.
The President of Brazil heads the federal executive, sanctions statutes, and commands the armed forces as a political principal. He does not write STF judgments, INPE satellite pixels, a US tariff proclamation, or a Venezuelan CNE tally. Congress, governors, Petrobras, and coalition partners share specific files.
Why it matters
The path is democratic resilience: a completed reelection after a coalition scandal is a dated rotation instrument.
Who was responsible
Contribution type and responsibility level for each recorded actor — not sole-author shorthand.
Direct responsibility
responsibility level 0.55 · verified
Voters chose. The TSE certified. He won. Alckmin lost.
What changed
Fact → Driver → Indicator. Relationship strength orders the paths; it is not the observed indicator movement.
- FactLula wins a second presidential term
- strengthensDriverDemocratic Resilience
- strengthensIndicators (3)Having a say in government
impact weight 0.4 · Effect from 29 October 2006 · verified
A completed certified reelection is a dated peaceful-contest instrument.
Strengthens · Relationship strength 0.28 (weight 0.4 × strength 0.7)
Observed
29.8% of population aged 16-65 years · 8.13 below the normal line (2023)
Worse than normalTwo readings: 30.2% of population aged 16-65 years (2021) and 29.8% of population aged 16-65 years (2023).
20212023 Above normal = better
Strengthens · Relationship strength 0.18 (weight 0.4 × strength 0.45)
Observed
0.53 score from 0 to 1 · 0.34 below the normal line (2024)
Worse than normal125 readings, 1900–2024: rose from 0.17 score from 0 to 1 to 0.53 score from 0 to 1.
Above normal = better
Strengthens · Relationship strength 0.18 (weight 0.4 × strength 0.45)
Observed
0.55 index score (0-1) · 0.26 below the normal line (2024)
Worse than normalAbove normal = better
Evidence
The sources behind this fact and its verification state.
- 1.Reuters — Lula wins Brazil presidential runoffReuters · High credibility · verified
- 2.TSE — 2024 municipal election resultsSuperior Electoral Court of Brazil · High credibility · verified
What the sources establish
Superior Electoral Court of Brazil carries the official instrument or communique. Reuters records the same dated act independently.
Established: 29 October 2006 runoff victory, independently reported and certified.
Not established: that Mensalão was thereby erased, or a unique later growth coefficient from that Sunday.
The TSE certified. He won. Alckmin lost.. A later repeal, court stay, or successor order would be a different Fact with a different date. That pair identifies Lula wins a second presidential term, not a later speech about Lula wins a second presidential term.
Co-authors and later implementers named in Context remain on the file. If a later repeal, stay, or successor instrument exists, it needs its own date and its own row. The contribution described on this Person row is limited to Voters chose. The TSE certified. He won. Alckmin lost. That limit is the alternative to treating office-holding as authorship of every later series.
Causal path
How this event connects to drivers and indicators in the graph.
- ActorLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva
- contributed toFactLula wins a second presidential term
- strengthensDriverDemocratic Resilience
- strengthensIndicatorHaving a say in government
Cite this page
Factrail. (2026). Lula wins a second presidential term. Factrail. https://factrail.ai/facts/br-lula-2006
https://factrail.ai/facts/br-lula-2006
Accessed 16 October 2026.
By the Factrail desk · Method: how we source and score · Last reviewed
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