Merkel says Germany can manage the 2015 refugee inflow
On 31 August 2015 the chancellor said “wir schaffen das” as arrivals surged via the Western Balkans. In the causal graph this event weakens Migration-policy restrictiveness and border control, a driver that weakens Having a say in government — an improving welfare path.
Read the full account
On 31 August 2015 the chancellor said “wir schaffen das” as arrivals surged via the Western Balkans. Interior practice suspended Dublin returns for Syrians for a period. A slogan is not a statute; the border practice is the event.
Who was responsible
Contribution type and responsibility level for each recorded actor — not sole-author shorthand.
Angela Merkel
PersonDirect responsibility
responsibility level 0.65 · verified
Border practice sat under her guideline and Seehofer’s later interior ministry. Länder housed people.
What changed
Fact → Driver → Indicator. Relationship strength orders the paths; it is not the observed indicator movement.
- FactMerkel says Germany can manage the 2015 refugee inflow
- weakensDriverMigration-policy restrictiveness and border control
- weakensIndicators (2)Having a say in government
impact weight 0.55 · Effect from 31 August 2015 · verified
A seasonal suspension of Dublin returns reduced restrictiveness for a defined inflow, with later political backlash.
Weakens · Relationship strength 0.33 (weight 0.55 × strength 0.6)
Observed
29.8% of population aged 16-65 years · 8.13 below the normal line (2023)
Worse than normalTwo readings: 30.2% of population aged 16-65 years (2021) and 29.8% of population aged 16-65 years (2023).
20212023 Above normal = better
Weakens · Relationship strength 0.22 (weight 0.55 × strength 0.4)
Observed
303M persons · 150M above the normal line (2024)
Better than normal8 readings, 1990–2024: rose from 154M persons to 303M persons.
Moving normal line
Evidence
The sources behind this fact and its verification state.
- 1.UNHCR reporting on Germany’s 2015 intakeUNHCR · High credibility · verified
- 2.Federal Government — summer press conference 2015Bundesregierung · High credibility · verified
Causal path
How this event connects to drivers and indicators in the graph.
- ActorAngela Merkel
- contributed toFactMerkel says Germany can manage the 2015 refugee inflow
- weakensDriverMigration-policy restrictiveness and border control
- weakensIndicatorHaving a say in government
Cite this page
Factrail. (2026). Merkel says Germany can manage the 2015 refugee inflow. Factrail. https://factrail.ai/facts/de-wir-schaffen-das-2015
https://factrail.ai/facts/de-wir-schaffen-das-2015
Accessed 15 October 2026.
By the Factrail desk · Method: how we source and score · Last reviewed
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