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Guinea holds its first presidential election since the coup

Guinea held its first presidential election since the 2021 takeover under the new constitutional framework. In the causal graph this event strengthens Doumbouya junta transition, a driver that weakens Having a say in government — a worsening welfare path.

Guinea holds its first presidential election since the coup

Sources: [1][2]

Read the full account

Guinea held its first presidential election since the 2021 takeover under the new constitutional framework. Major pre-coup opposition figures were absent from the contest, while Doumbouya ran as the incumbent transitional leader.

Who was responsible

Contribution type and responsibility level for each recorded actor — not sole-author shorthand.

No public contributors are listed for this fact.

What changed

Fact → Driver → Indicator. Relationship strength orders the paths; it is not the observed indicator movement.

    1. FactGuinea holds its first presidential election since the coup
    2. strengthensDriverDoumbouya junta transition
    3. weakensIndicatorHaving a say in government
    Worsening path

    impact weight 0.78 · verified

    • Having a say in government

      via Doumbouya junta transition

      Worse

      Weakens · Relationship strength 0.62 (weight 0.78 × strength 0.8)

      Observed

      29.8% of population aged 16-65 years · 8.13 below the normal line (2023)

      Worse than normal

      Two readings: 30.2% of population aged 16-65 years (2021) and 29.8% of population aged 16-65 years (2023).

      20212023

      Above normal = better

Evidence

The sources behind this fact and its verification state.

Verified2 sources on file
  1. 1.Guineans vote in first election since 2021 coup with junta leader likely to winAssociated Press · verified
  2. 2.Guinea 2025Amnesty International · verified

Causal path

How this event connects to drivers and indicators in the graph.

  1. FactGuinea holds its first presidential election since the coup
  2. strengthensDriverDoumbouya junta transition
  3. weakensIndicatorHaving a say in government

Cite this page

Factrail. (2026). Guinea holds its first presidential election since the coup. Factrail. https://factrail.ai/facts/guinea-doumbouya-presidential-election-2025-12-28

https://factrail.ai/facts/guinea-doumbouya-presidential-election-2025-12-28

Accessed 16 October 2026.

By the Factrail desk · Method: how we source and score · Last reviewed

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