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PvdA-GroenLinks under Timmermans finishes behind Wilders

On 22 November 2023 Wilders’ PVV won; Timmermans’s combination came second and he did not become prime minister. In the causal graph this event strengthens Political Polarization, a driver that weakens Having a say in government — a worsening welfare path.

Sources: [1][2]

Read the full account

On 22 November 2023 Wilders’ PVV won; Timmermans’s combination came second and he did not become prime minister. An election is a completed democratic act.

Who was responsible

Contribution type and responsibility level for each recorded actor — not sole-author shorthand.

  • Frans Timmermans

    Person

    Direct responsibility

    responsibility level 0.65 · verified

    He was the left’s candidate. Voters produced the seats. He later left the national lead.

What changed

Fact → Driver → Indicator. Relationship strength orders the paths; it is not the observed indicator movement.

    1. FactPvdA-GroenLinks under Timmermans finishes behind Wilders
    2. strengthensDriverPolitical Polarization
    3. weakensIndicators (2)Having a say in government
    Worsening path

    impact weight 0.4 · Effect from 22 November 2023 · verified

    A polarising climate-and-migration election increased Dutch bloc conflict and ended his national path.

    • Having a say in government

      via Political Polarization

      Worse

      Weakens · Relationship strength 0.18 (weight 0.4 × strength 0.45)

      Observed

      29.8% of population aged 16-65 years · 8.13 below the normal line (2023)

      Worse than normal

      Two readings: 30.2% of population aged 16-65 years (2021) and 29.8% of population aged 16-65 years (2023).

      20212023

      Above normal = better

    • Rule of Law Gap from the Highest Governance Score

      via Political Polarization

      Worse

      Strengthens · Relationship strength 0.18 (weight 0.4 × strength 0.45)

      Observed

      43.9 Score · 43.9 above the normal line (2024)

      Worse than normal

      26 readings, 1996–2024: rose from 43 Score to 43.9 Score.

      Normal is zero · any amount = worse

Evidence

The sources behind this fact and its verification state.

Verified2 sources on file
  1. 1.Reuters — Wilders wins Dutch electionReuters · High credibility · verified
  2. 2.Kiesraad — 2023 Tweede Kamer electionKiesraad · High credibility · verified

Causal path

How this event connects to drivers and indicators in the graph.

  1. ActorFrans Timmermans
  2. contributed toFactPvdA-GroenLinks under Timmermans finishes behind Wilders
  3. strengthensDriverPolitical Polarization
  4. weakensIndicatorHaving a say in government

Cite this page

Factrail. (2026). PvdA-GroenLinks under Timmermans finishes behind Wilders. Factrail. https://factrail.ai/facts/nl-timmermans-election-2023

https://factrail.ai/facts/nl-timmermans-election-2023

Accessed 16 October 2026.

By the Factrail desk · Method: how we source and score · Last reviewed

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