Bukele wins a landslide consecutive re-election
On 4 February 2024 Nayib Bukele won a consecutive presidential re-election in a landslide after the 2021 Chamber ruling. The 2021 ruling and 2025 reform are neighbouring, not this copy. In the causal graph this event strengthens Democratic Resilience, a driver that strengthens Having a say in government — an improving welfare path.
Read the full account
On 4 February 2024 Nayib Bukele won a consecutive presidential re-election in a landslide after the 2021 Chamber ruling. The 2021 ruling and 2025 reform are neighbouring, not this copy.
Context
Ulloa was the running mate. Neighbouring 1 June 2024 oath is the child. Opposition alleged an unlevel field. The TSE certified.
Re-election ruling 2021 is the parent unlock. 1 June 2024 oath is the child. Indefinite reform 2025 is later.
The President of El Salvador heads the executive, commands the armed forces, and can request a state of exception that the Legislative Assembly must approve and extend. He does not write a Constitutional Chamber judgment by himself, an IMF board decision, or a US Treasury designation. The Assembly, PNC, Fiscalía, and prison service share specific files. A homicide print is not a unique due-process coefficient. Gang membership is not proven by detention alone.
Why it matters
The path is democratic resilience: a completed certified re-election is a dated contest instrument on a field unlocked by a packed chamber.
Who was responsible
Contribution type and responsibility level for each recorded actor — not sole-author shorthand.
Nayib Bukele
PersonDirect responsibility
responsibility level 0.6 · verified
Voters chose. The TSE certified. He won. The 2021 Chamber had unlocked the ticket.
What changed
Fact → Driver → Indicator. Relationship strength orders the paths; it is not the observed indicator movement.
- FactBukele wins a landslide consecutive re-election
- strengthensDriverDemocratic Resilience
- strengthensIndicators (3)Having a say in government
impact weight 0.35 · Effect from 4 February 2024 · verified
A completed certified 2024 vote is a dated contest instrument, remaining 2021 unlock named.
Strengthens · Relationship strength 0.24 (weight 0.35 × strength 0.7)
Observed
29.8% of population aged 16-65 years · 8.13 below the normal line (2023)
Worse than normalTwo readings: 30.2% of population aged 16-65 years (2021) and 29.8% of population aged 16-65 years (2023).
20212023 Above normal = better
Strengthens · Relationship strength 0.16 (weight 0.35 × strength 0.45)
Observed
0.53 score from 0 to 1 · 0.34 below the normal line (2024)
Worse than normal125 readings, 1900–2024: rose from 0.17 score from 0 to 1 to 0.53 score from 0 to 1.
Above normal = better
Strengthens · Relationship strength 0.16 (weight 0.35 × strength 0.45)
Observed
0.55 index score (0-1) · 0.26 below the normal line (2024)
Worse than normalAbove normal = better
- FactBukele wins a landslide consecutive re-election
- strengthensDriverSocial Cohesion
- strengthensIndicators (2)Having a say in government
impact weight 0.35 · Effect from 4 February 2024 · verified
A landslide after a homicide drop is a dated consent print, remaining detention costs named.
Strengthens · Relationship strength 0.16 (weight 0.35 × strength 0.45)
Observed
29.8% of population aged 16-65 years · 8.13 below the normal line (2023)
Worse than normalTwo readings: 30.2% of population aged 16-65 years (2021) and 29.8% of population aged 16-65 years (2023).
20212023 Above normal = better
Weakens · Relationship strength 0.16 (weight 0.35 × strength 0.45)
Observed
43.9 Score · 43.9 above the normal line (2024)
Worse than normal26 readings, 1996–2024: rose from 43 Score to 43.9 Score.
Normal is zero · any amount = worse
Evidence
The sources behind this fact and its verification state.
- 1.Reuters — Bukele wins El Salvador re-election in landslideReuters · High credibility · verified
- 2.TSE — 2019 presidential election resultsSupreme Electoral Tribunal of El Salvador · High credibility · verified
What the sources establish
Supreme Electoral Tribunal of El Salvador carries the official instrument or communique. Reuters records the same dated act independently.
Established: 4 February 2024 landslide, independently reported and certified.
Not established: that the 2021 ruling was thereby a unique popular-law, or a unique later homicide coefficient from that Sunday.
The TSE certified. He won. The 2021 Chamber had unlocked the ticket.. A later repeal, court stay, or successor order would be a different Fact with a different date. That pair identifies Bukele wins a landslide consecutive re-election, not a later speech about Bukele wins a landslide consecutive re-election.
Co-authors and later implementers named in Context remain on the file. If a later repeal, stay, or successor instrument exists, it needs its own date and its own row. The contribution described on this Person row is limited to Voters chose. The TSE certified. He won. That limit is the alternative to treating office-holding as authorship of every later series.
Causal path
How this event connects to drivers and indicators in the graph.
- ActorNayib Bukele
- contributed toFactBukele wins a landslide consecutive re-election
- strengthensDrivers (2)Democratic Resilience
- strengthensIndicatorHaving a say in government
Cite this page
Factrail. (2026). Bukele wins a landslide consecutive re-election. Factrail. https://factrail.ai/facts/sv-election-2024
https://factrail.ai/facts/sv-election-2024
Accessed 16 October 2026.
By the Factrail desk · Method: how we source and score · Last reviewed
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