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Nayib Bukele

Nayib Bukele

-100

Net harmfulFormula-derived score

As of August 2026 he remains president. The largest negative contribution to the formula-derived score is “The Assembly approves a state of exception after a weekend of gang killings” (2022). The largest positive offset is “Nuevas Ideas wins a legislative supermajority” (2021).

Top harm

The Assembly approves a state of exception after a weekend of gang killings

−135 pts

Top offset

Nuevas Ideas wins a legislative supermajority

+3 pts

Nuevas Ideas personalist security populismanti-gang emergency ruledigital-brand state-building treated as compatible with packed courts and indefinite re-election

Impact

Biggest harms and offsets: signed contributions to the formula-derived score, ranked by size.

Biggest harms

Lowers the score

20 more ranked below in Timeline and Related.

Biggest offsets

Raises the score
Editorial assessment (context, not the score)

The file after 2019 is not a civic saint and not a single gang footnote. The heaviest documented costs are soldiers in the Assembly in 2020, the 1 May 2021 replacement of the Constitutional Chamber and attorney-general, a still-on state of exception with mass detention and custody-death reporting, a 2021 court reading that unlocked consecutive re-election, and the 31 July 2025 indefinite-reelection reform. Those rest on Assembly votes, chamber orders, PNC tallies, and wires. The live composite is formula output from those paths plus a measured homicide collapse, 2019 and 2024 elections, and later tourism-and-infrastructure instruments; this paragraph is not the score.

The offsets are also dated: the 2019 rotation, Territorial Control, the 2021 legislative supermajority, CECOT as a confinement instrument, 2023–24 homicide prints, and an IMF-linked Bitcoin walk-back. The PNC, the Assembly, and the prison service share several files.

He does not sit as a homicide registrar and he does not write an IMF minute. Confidence is high on exception decrees, Assembly reforms, and certified elections, and medium where PNC classification, untried detainees, and later disappearance series sit between a vote and a welfare indicator.

Indicators affected

Sorted by the size of this person’s signed contribution. The observed state is the indicator’s own reading, not this person’s doing.

Accountability & contradictions

Claims against the record, the type of responsibility, and what is disputed.

Responsibility

What could change this assessment

  • 4 linked facts have no assessed welfare direction yet.
  • Lifetime coverage has not been assessed: the record reflects stored facts only (2019–2026).

Causal path

Person → Fact → Driver → Indicator. Select a path to inspect its factors; the full network opens on demand.

  1. PersonNayib Bukele
  2. FactThe Assembly approves a state of exception after a weekend of gang killings
  3. DriverJudicial independence erosion (court capture)
  4. IndicatorRule of Law Gap from the Highest Governance Score
−135 pts

Contribution size 0.85 · Responsibility 0.8 · Fact impact 0.75 · Driver weight 0.56 · Driver → indicator −0.72 · Indicator importance 0.8 · Deviation factor −3 · Confidence 1

  1. PersonNayib Bukele
  2. FactOfficial and independent tallies record a collapse in homicides after the exception
  3. DriverForced-Displacement Scale
  4. IndicatorPeople Internally Displaced by Conflict and Violence (IDMC)
−117 pts

Contribution size 0.75 · Responsibility 0.7 · Fact impact −0.4 · Driver weight 0.94 · Driver → indicator −0.8 · Indicator importance 0.9 · Deviation factor −3 · Confidence 1

  1. PersonNayib Bukele
  2. FactNuevas Ideas wins a legislative supermajority
  3. DriverPolitical Polarization
  4. IndicatorRule of Law Gap from the Highest Governance Score
+3 pts

Contribution size 0.5 · Responsibility 0.55 · Fact impact 0.4 · Driver weight 0.34 · Driver → indicator −0.45 · Indicator importance 0.8 · Deviation factor −3 · Confidence 1

Timeline

The most relevant dated facts, newest first.

  1. 31 July 2025 · Democratic Resilience

    The Assembly removes presidential term limits in a single session
    −80 pts

  2. 31 December 2023 · Social Cohesion

    Official and independent tallies record a collapse in homicides after the exception
    −117 pts

  3. 30 April 2022 · Judicial Independence

    Tens of thousands are detained in the first month of the exception
    −44 pts

  4. 27 March 2022 · Judicial Independence

    The Assembly approves a state of exception after a weekend of gang killings
    −135 pts

  5. 1 May 2021 · Democratic Resilience

    The new Assembly replaces the Constitutional Chamber and the attorney-general in one night
    −61 pts

  6. 17 February 2021 · Pandemic Preparedness

    El Salvador begins a national COVID-19 vaccination campaign
    −53 pts

Evidence & methodology

How the record is sourced and how the score is derived.

30 of 30 linked facts verified, drawing on 8 distinct sources (2019–2026).

Sources include Presidency of El Salvador, Legislative Assembly of El Salvador, National Civil Police of El Salvador, Ministry of Tourism of El Salvador, International Monetary Fund, Supreme Electoral Tribunal of El Salvador, Chivo / Government of El Salvador, Constitutional Chamber of El Salvador.

Sources

  1. 1.Casa Presidencial — 9 February 2020 Assembly session on the security loanPresidency of El Salvador
  2. 2.Legislative Assembly — 1 May 2021 dismissals and appointments of the Constitutional Chamber and FiscalíaLegislative Assembly of El Salvador
  3. 3.TSE — 2019 presidential election resultsSupreme Electoral Tribunal of El Salvador
  4. 4.PNC — 2023 homicide statisticsNational Civil Police of El Salvador
  5. 5.MITUR — 2024 tourism-arrival statisticsMinistry of Tourism of El Salvador
  6. 6.IMF — Argentina programme reviews under Milei, 2024International Monetary Fund
  7. 7.Chivo Wallet — public rollout with signup bonus, 7 September 2021Chivo / Government of El Salvador
  8. 8.Constitutional Chamber — 3 September 2021 ruling on consecutive presidential re-electionConstitutional Chamber of El Salvador

The score is formula-derived (Factrail formula v1, version 1.0.0), not an editorial verdict. Read the methodology.

By the Factrail desk · Method: how we source and score · Last reviewed · Sources: 8

Expert analysis

An excerpt; the full analysis opens on request.

The power he actually held

Nayib Bukele has been president of El Salvador since 1 June 2019. The Assembly extends exception. The Chamber interprets the constitution. The PNC arrests. He is the political principal, not every warden.

As of August 2026 he remains in office and is Nuevas Ideas’ candidate for 28 February 2027 after a 2025 reform that allows indefinite re-election and a six-year term.

What went wrong, and what is proven

September 2021 that packed Chamber allowed consecutive re-election. 31 July 2025 the Assembly removed term limits in a single session.

27 March 2022 began a state of exception still extended. Mass detention and CECOT are completed confinement instruments. Custody deaths are a completed prison-health cluster; each death is not a unique gang verdict. Chivo is a completed wallet rollout. Municipal mergers reduced local councils. The 2026 third-term filing is a completed party instrument under the new text.

What improved, and how far

The 2019 election and oath are completed rotations. Territorial Control is a dated security plan. The 2021 legislative landslide is a completed certified supermajority. Homicide collapse is a measured PNC-and-independent print after the exception — gang guilt is still not proven for every detainee. The 2024 re-election and second oath are completed. Surf City and later tourism are dated opening instruments. An IMF-linked Bitcoin adjustment is a completed fiscal-walk-back, not a finding that the 2021 law never sat.

Shared responsibility, and what the score does not say

The score does not say that every detainee is a unique homicide author. It does not say that a homicide drop rebates a packed chamber. It does not convert a 2025 reform into a 2027 certificate. Confidence is high on Assembly votes and exception decrees, and medium where PNC classification, untried prisoners, and later disappearance series sit between a vote and a welfare indicator.

Related people are counterpart rulers who actually shared files: Trump, Milei, Sheinbaum, Lula, Biden, Musk, Vance, Guterres, Macron, Netanyahu, von der Leyen, Modi.

Official carriers include Casa Presidencial (https://www.presidencia.gob.sv/ (opens in a new tab)), the Assembly, and contemporaneous Reuters.

A president is powerful enough to own those decrees. He is not powerful enough to be the unique author of a Chamber judgment he packed the night before, and the dossier keeps that line visible. Keep 1 May 2021 off a homicide series. Keep Bitcoin off CECOT. If those distinctions feel pedantic, they are the alternative to a tattoo-prison film and the alternative to a cartoon.

The 2019 oath, the 2022 exception, and the 2025 reform are different dates. Treat them as texts. A 2027 filing is not a completed third term. He is still president in August 2026. Ulloa, the Assembly, and the PNC remain on the file so a brand cannot swallow them.

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