Total number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) living in displacement at the end of each year as a result of armed conflict and violence, as monitored by the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC). This is a stock (people still displaced), not annual new movements.
How to read it
Readings above the normal line are worse than normal, so they plot downward here; readings below it are better.
Total number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) living in displacement at the end of each year as a result of armed conflict and violence, as monitored by the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC). This is a stock (people still displaced), not annual new movements. Higher values indicate a larger population uprooted by insecurity.
This indicator’s slice of Factrail’s verified causal web — the people, facts, drivers and welfare indicators it connects to. Select any node to trace a path.
By the Factrail desk · Method: how we source and score · Last reviewed
Measured value over time. Its norm (41,000,000 people (stock, end-of-year)) is far off this scale, marked at the bottom edge, so the series stays worse than normal throughout — the deviation badge shows the gap.
Each driver linked to this indicator, strongest pull first, on the same timeline above. Markers are the facts that moved that driver. These are modelled influences — treat them as correlational unless a documented causal edge is shown.
Rakhine operations and post-coup aerial campaigns increase conflict displacement. The IDMC series is lower-is-better, so the welfare direction is negative. Quote UN/IDMC language on the edge; do not invent a size.
Min Aung Hlaing junta atrocity (Myanmar): lowers welfare, impact strength 100%, 0 linked facts on the timeline.Khartoum, Darfur, and El Fasher fighting increase displacement. The IDMC stock is lower-is-better. Do not invent a Factrail headcount.
Sudan civil war (SAF↔RSF 2023+): lowers welfare, impact strength 90%, 0 linked facts on the timeline.Bombardment and evacuation orders increase displacement. The IDMC stock is lower-is-better. The ICJ recited forcible displacement; this is not a unique Factrail headcount.
Israel–Gaza war (Oct 2023+): lowers welfare, impact strength 85%, 0 linked facts on the timeline.Intense fighting forces people to flee, raising the stock of conflict/violence IDPs, often with a lag as displacement accumulates.
Interstate Armed-Conflict Intensity: lowers welfare, impact strength 85%, 0 linked facts on the timeline.M23/RDF capture of Goma and Bukavu increases displacement. The IDMC stock is lower-is-better.
Eastern DRC / M23–RDF (Great Lakes): lowers welfare, impact strength 80%, 0 linked facts on the timeline.Corridor closure and the 2023 operation increase displacement. The IDMC stock is lower-is-better, so the welfare direction is negative. This is not a unique Factrail headcount.
Nagorno-Karabakh war (2020–2023+): lowers welfare, impact strength 80%, 0 linked facts on the timeline.