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2018 referendums go against Tsai’s camp on marriage and energy

On 24 November 2018 several referendums, including on marriage definition and nuclear-free 2025, went against Tsai’s camp, alongside local-election losses. In the causal graph this event strengthens the driver Nuclear-Energy Deployment.

Sources: [1][2]

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On 24 November 2018 several referendums, including on marriage definition and nuclear-free 2025, went against Tsai’s camp, alongside local-election losses.

Context

CEC ran the votes. She did not write every ballot question. A referendum loss is still a dated polarization-and-energy-politics instrument.

Marriage 2019 later passed anyway on a Court clock. Energy blackouts are a later reliability row.

The president of the Republic of China (Taiwan) is head of state under the Additional Articles. She does not write a PRC statute, a US NDAA, a TSMC board minute, or a 2026 Lai cabinet order. She left office on 20 May 2024; Lai Ching-te is president. A blackout is not a finding that every reactor was thereby safe. A Pelosi transit is not a PRC missile. Allegation of a stolen 2018 referendum is not stored as a completed steal. An indigenous apology is not a land-title gazette. A New Southbound brand is not an FTA by itself. A 2024 LY split is not a finding that the 2020 mandate was void.

Who was responsible

Contribution type and responsibility level for each recorded actor — not sole-author shorthand.

  • Tsai Ing-wen

    Person

    Direct responsibility

    responsibility level 0.4 · verified

    Voters chose. CEC declared. Her camp lost several questions. The Court clock on marriage still ran.

What changed

Fact → Driver → Indicator. Relationship strength orders the paths; it is not the observed indicator movement.

    1. Fact2018 referendums go against Tsai’s camp on marriage and energy
    2. strengthensDriverNuclear-Energy Deployment

    impact weight 0.25 · Effect from 24 November 2018 · verified

    A nuclear-free-2025 setback is a completed energy-politics constraint on her RE path.

    1. Fact2018 referendums go against Tsai’s camp on marriage and energy
    2. strengthensDriverPolitical Polarization
    3. weakensIndicators (2)Having a say in government
    Worsening path

    impact weight 0.5 · Effect from 24 November 2018 · verified

    Completed referendum losses polarised marriage-and-energy politics.

    • Having a say in government

      via Political Polarization

      Worse

      Weakens · Relationship strength 0.23 (weight 0.5 × strength 0.45)

      Observed

      29.8% of population aged 16-65 years · 8.13 below the normal line (2023)

      Worse than normal

      Two readings: 30.2% of population aged 16-65 years (2021) and 29.8% of population aged 16-65 years (2023).

      20212023

      Above normal = better

    • Rule of Law Gap from the Highest Governance Score

      via Political Polarization

      Worse

      Strengthens · Relationship strength 0.23 (weight 0.5 × strength 0.45)

      Observed

      43.9 Score · 43.9 above the normal line (2024)

      Worse than normal

      26 readings, 1996–2024: rose from 43 Score to 43.9 Score.

      Normal is zero · any amount = worse

Evidence

The sources behind this fact and its verification state.

Verified2 sources on file
  1. 1.Reuters — Taiwan referendums deal blow to Tsai on marriage and energyReuters · High credibility · verified
  2. 2.CEC — 2016 presidential election, Tsai Ing-wen electedCentral Election Commission Taiwan · High credibility · verified
What the sources establish

Central Election Commission Taiwan carries the official instrument or communique. Reuters records the same dated act independently.

Established: 24 November 2018 referendum results against her camp, independently reported.

Not established: that 2016 was stolen, or a unique later TFR coefficient from one Sunday.

CEC declared. Her camp lost several questions. The Court clock on marriage still ran.. A later repeal, court stay, or successor order would be a different Fact with a different date. That pair identifies 2018 referendums go against Tsai’s camp on marriage and energy, not a later speech about 2018 referendums go against Tsai’s camp on marriage and energy.

Co-authors and later implementers named in Context remain on the file. If a later repeal, stay, or successor instrument exists, it needs its own date and its own row. The contribution described on this Person row is limited to Voters chose. CEC declared. Her camp lost several questions. The Court clock on marriage still ran. That limit is the alternative to treating office-holding as authorship of every later series.

Causal path

How this event connects to drivers and indicators in the graph.

  1. ActorTsai Ing-wen
  2. contributed toFact2018 referendums go against Tsai’s camp on marriage and energy
  3. strengthensDrivers (2)Nuclear-Energy Deployment

Cite this page

Factrail. (2026). 2018 referendums go against Tsai’s camp on marriage and energy. Factrail. https://factrail.ai/facts/tw-tsai-referendums-2018

https://factrail.ai/facts/tw-tsai-referendums-2018

Accessed 16 October 2026.

By the Factrail desk · Method: how we source and score · Last reviewed

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