Skip to content
Kais Saied

Kais Saied

-100

Net harmfulFormula-derived score

The through-line is 25 July 2021 power concentration: Article 80 used to freeze parliament, a 2022 constitution ISIE recorded as 94.6 percent yes on 30.5 percent turnout, then 90.69 percent in 2024 on 28.8 percent turnout — not an Arab Spring clerk. Still in office at apply. The largest negative contribution to the formula-derived score is “ISIE records 94.6 percent yes for Saied’s constitution on 30.5 percent turnout” (2022).

Top harm

ISIE records 94.6 percent yes for Saied’s constitution on 30.5 percent turnout

−149 pts

Hyper-presidential exceptional measures2022 constitutionclosed electoral certification

Impact

Biggest harms and offsets: signed contributions to the formula-derived score, ranked by size.

Biggest harms

Lowers the score
Editorial assessment (context, not the score)

The heaviest documented costs sit on three clusters, not on a personality adjective.

First, 25 July 2021. He sacked Mechichi and froze parliament, citing Article 80. Ghannouchi called it a coup and denied the consultation Article 80 required. Article 80 said parliament remains in continuous session and cannot be dissolved. This page stores that disagreement.

Second, the 2022 constitution. ISIE Decision 2022-22 recorded 94.6 percent yes and 30.5 percent turnout. No minimum turnout was required. Opposition groups boycotted.

Third, the 2024 return. ISIE recorded 90.69 percent on 28.8 percent turnout. Zammel was recorded at 7.35 percent from prison. He is unresolved.

Confidence is high on the 25 July speech as recorded by wires, the ISIE percentages, and 2026 incumbency, and medium where later arrest tallies sit beside those instruments. This paragraph is an assessment of those paths, not a substitute number.

Indicators affected

Sorted by the size of this person’s signed contribution. The observed state is the indicator’s own reading, not this person’s doing.

Accountability & contradictions

Claims against the record, the type of responsibility, and what is disputed.

Responsibility

What could change this assessment

  • Lifetime coverage has not been assessed: the record reflects stored facts only (2021–2024).

Causal path

Person → Fact → Driver → Indicator. Select a path to inspect its factors; the full network opens on demand.

  1. PersonKais Saied
  2. FactISIE records 94.6 percent yes for Saied’s constitution on 30.5 percent turnout
  3. DriverSaied 2021 power concentration
  4. IndicatorHaving a say in government
−149 pts

Contribution size 1 · Responsibility 0.5 · Fact impact 1 · Driver weight 1 · Driver → indicator −0.8 · Indicator importance 0.8 · Deviation factor −3 · Confidence 1

  1. PersonKais Saied
  2. FactISIE declares Saied winner with 90.69 percent on 28.8 percent turnout
  3. DriverSaied 2021 power concentration
  4. IndicatorHaving a say in government
−149 pts

Contribution size 1 · Responsibility 0.5 · Fact impact 1 · Driver weight 1 · Driver → indicator −0.8 · Indicator importance 0.8 · Deviation factor −3 · Confidence 1

Timeline

The most relevant dated facts, newest first.

  1. 7 October 2024 · Saied 2021 power concentration

    ISIE declares Saied winner with 90.69 percent on 28.8 percent turnout
    −149 pts

  2. 26 July 2022 · Saied 2021 power concentration

    ISIE records 94.6 percent yes for Saied’s constitution on 30.5 percent turnout
    −149 pts

  3. 25 July 2021 · Saied 2021 power concentration

    Saied invokes Article 80, sacks the prime minister, and freezes parliament
    −146 pts

Evidence & methodology

How the record is sourced and how the score is derived.

3 of 3 linked facts verified, drawing on 3 distinct sources (2021–2024).

Sources include L’Économiste Maghrébin (recording ISIE), Instance supérieure indépendante pour les élections, Reuters.

Sources

  1. 1.L’Économiste Maghrébin — ISIE: Saied 90.69 percent, turnout 28.8 percent, 7 October 2024L’Économiste Maghrébin (recording ISIE)
  2. 2.ISIE Decision 2022-22 of 16 August 2022 — 2,607,884 yes (94.6 percent), 30.5 percent turnoutInstance supérieure indépendante pour les élections
  3. 3.Reuters — Saied dismisses government and freezes parliament under Article 80, 25 July 2021Reuters

The score is formula-derived (Factrail formula v1, version 1.0.0), not an editorial verdict. Read the methodology.

By the Factrail desk · Method: how we source and score · Last reviewed · Sources: 3

Expert analysis

An excerpt; the full analysis opens on request.

Identity and office

Kais Saied has been president of Tunisia since 23 October 2019. He remains head of state. He does not write ISIE Decision 2022-22. He did invoke Article 80 on 25 July 2021.

The freeze file is dated. On 25 July 2021 he announced three decisions: freeze of the Assembly, lifting of deputies’ immunity, and assumption of executive power with a new prime minister (Reuters (opens in a new tab)). Ghannouchi called it a coup. Ghannouchi and Mechichi are unresolved.

The constitution file is official. ISIE Decision 2022-22 of 16 August 2022 recorded 2,607,884 yes (94.6 percent) and 2,830,094 voters of 9,278,541 registered (30.5 percent) after the 25 July 2022 referendum (ISIE (opens in a new tab)). No minimum turnout was required.

The ballot file is official. ISIE recorded 2,438,954 votes (90.69 percent) on 7 October 2024 after the 6 October poll, turnout 28.8 percent (AP (opens in a new tab)). Ayachi Zammel is unresolved.

Documented benefits

The offsets that a commissioned-positive portrait would lead with are real only where dated, and they are not this assignment’s through-line. A 2019 runoff victory is a neighbouring 13 October 2019 instrument. It is not a rebate of 25 July 2021.

Contributions and limits of responsibility

He invoked Article 80. He promulgated the 2022 constitution. He ran and was certified in 2024. ISIE tabulated. The army closed access to the parliament building. Sharing execution is not a reason to drop 25 July 2021. It is a reason not to invent a unique arrest total as Contribution.size.

Causal chain through facts

25 July 2021 strengthens the owned power-concentration driver and weakens civic space. The 2022 constitution and 2024 90.69 percent return strengthen the owned driver and weaken electoral integrity. They do not hang on ukraine-war, eastern-drc-m23-rdf, territorial-revisionism, or Soviet state-repression. Ghannouchi, Mechichi, and Zammel remain names, not minted pages.

What the score does not say

This page does not promise an exact political-prisoner census. Direction on this chain is negative: the documented instruments freeze a parliament, certify a hyper-presidential constitution on low turnout, and return 90.69 percent against a jailed runner-up. A later genuine contest would be a different fact with a different date.

Dispute a fact on this pageNamed here, or represent someone who is? Request a right of reply.