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Xiomara Castro

Xiomara Castro

-100

Net harmfulFormula-derived score

The through-line is family-party continuity: a 2022 oath after JOH, the 28 August 2024 denunciation of the US extradition treaty, and a delayed 15 January 2026 handover after calling Nasry Asfura’s CNE win a de facto fraud. A ruler is scored on those instruments, not as a first-woman sticker. The largest negative contribution to the formula-derived score is “Castro orders a delayed transition after calling Asfura’s CNE win a de facto fraud” (2026).

Top harm

Castro orders a delayed transition after calling Asfura’s CNE win a de facto fraud

−119 pts

Libre family continuityextradition-treaty denunciationdelayed 2026 handover treated as compatible with a 2022 mandate

Impact

Biggest harms and offsets: signed contributions to the formula-derived score, ranked by size.

Biggest harms

Lowers the score
Editorial assessment (context, not the score)

The heaviest documented costs sit on the extradition channel and a delayed 2026 handover, not on a personality adjective.

First, a 2022 oath. On 27 January 2022 she took office after a competitive 2021 contest. That is a completed transfer. It does not rebate 2024.

Second, a treaty denunciation. On 28 August 2024 she ordered the 1912 US extradition treaty denounced after Ambassador Dogu criticised a meeting with Venezuelan defence minister Vladimir Padrino López. Reina sent the note. Store the denunciation.

Third, a family neighbourhood. Insight Crime published the 2013 Cachiros meeting on 3 September 2024. She condemned trafficker–politician deals and called the timing a plot. Carlos Zelaya remains unresolved.

Fourth, a delayed handover. CNE declared Asfura on 24 December 2025. On 15 January 2026 she ordered the transition while still calling the result fraud. Asfura was sworn on 27 January 2026. She did not attend. Store both.

Confidence is high on oath dates and the verbal note, and medium where ENEE prints sit between Energy and later compilations. This paragraph is an assessment of those paths, not a substitute number.

Indicators affected

Sorted by the size of this person’s signed contribution. The observed state is the indicator’s own reading, not this person’s doing.

Accountability & contradictions

Claims against the record, the type of responsibility, and what is disputed.

Responsibility

What could change this assessment

  • Lifetime coverage has not been assessed: the record reflects stored facts only (2022–2026).

Causal path

Person → Fact → Driver → Indicator. Select a path to inspect its factors; the full network opens on demand.

  1. PersonXiomara Castro
  2. FactCastro orders a delayed transition after calling Asfura’s CNE win a de facto fraud
  3. DriverCastro Libre narco-legacy
  4. IndicatorCorruption Perceptions Index (Global Average)
−119 pts

Contribution size 1 · Responsibility 0.5 · Fact impact 1 · Driver weight 1 · Driver → indicator −0.41 · Indicator importance 0.85 · Deviation factor −3 · Confidence 1

  1. PersonXiomara Castro
  2. FactCastro orders denunciation of the 1912 US–Honduras extradition treaty
  3. DriverPolitical Polarization
  4. IndicatorRule of Law Gap from the Highest Governance Score
−37 pts

Contribution size 1 · Responsibility 0.5 · Fact impact 1 · Driver weight 0.35 · Driver → indicator −0.45 · Indicator importance 0.8 · Deviation factor −3 · Confidence 1

Timeline

The most relevant dated facts, newest first.

  1. 15 January 2026 · Political Polarization

    Castro orders a delayed transition after calling Asfura’s CNE win a de facto fraud
    −119 pts

  2. 28 August 2024 · Castro Libre narco-legacy

    Castro orders denunciation of the 1912 US–Honduras extradition treaty
    −37 pts

  3. 27 January 2022 · Capacity for Peaceful Transfer of Power

    Castro takes the oath as Libre president after the 28 November 2021 contest
    −23 pts

Evidence & methodology

How the record is sourced and how the score is derived.

3 of 3 linked facts verified, drawing on 2 distinct sources (2022–2026).

Sources include Presidency of the Republic of Honduras, Secretariat of Foreign Affairs of Honduras.

Sources

  1. 1.Presidency of Honduras — 27 January 2022 transmission-of-command neighbourhoodPresidency of the Republic of Honduras
  2. 2.Secretariat of Foreign Affairs of Honduras — Nota 111-DGAJTC-2024 neighbourhoodSecretariat of Foreign Affairs of Honduras

The score is formula-derived (Factrail formula v1, version 1.0.0), not an editorial verdict. Read the methodology.

By the Factrail desk · Method: how we source and score · Last reviewed · Sources: 2

Expert analysis

An excerpt; the full analysis opens on request.

Identity and office

Xiomara Castro was president of Honduras from 27 January 2022 to 27 January 2026. As of September 2026 she is a PARLACEN member. Manuel Zelaya is named as an unresolved person candidate. This run does not mint a page for him.

She is not a first-woman saint. Critics in 2024 called the extradition denunciation a shield for a family neighbourhood after the Cachiros video. Store both.

On 28 August 2024 she ordered Foreign Minister Enrique Reina to denounce the 1912 US–Honduras extradition treaty (Reuters, 30 August 2024 (opens in a new tab)). Cancillería sent Nota 111-DGAJTC-2024. The spat began when Ambassador Laura Dogu criticised a Honduran defence meeting with Venezuelan defence minister Vladimir Padrino López. Nicolás Maduro is the live counterpart. Padrino remains a name, not a minted page on this run. The treaty had sent JOH to New York. She said she would not let extradition intimidate the armed forces. Store the denunciation.

On 3 September 2024 Insight Crime published a 34-minute 2013 Cachiros meeting with Carlos Zelaya (Insight Crime (opens in a new tab); AP, 4 September 2024 (opens in a new tab)). She condemned trafficker–politician deals on a national chain and called the publication a destabilisation plot. Carlos Zelaya resigned his congressional post. Store the neighbourhood.

On 15 January 2026 she ordered the start of a delayed transition to Nasry Asfura after weeks of Libre fraud claims, while still calling the CNE/TJE result a “de facto” government from “monstrous electoral fraud” (El País, 15 January 2026 (opens in a new tab)). Asfura was sworn on 27 January 2026; she did not attend (Reuters, 27 January 2026 (opens in a new tab)). Donald Trump is live on the endorsement neighbourhood. Asfura remains unresolved. This run does not mint him.

Human-rights groups criticised a prolonged state of emergency against gangs and an expanded military role. Store that as neighbouring security weather.

Documented benefits

The offsets that a commissioned-positive portrait would lead with are real where dated. The 28 November 2021 contest produced a Libre win and a 27 January 2022 oath after JOH. Poverty and homicide prints cited by her office sit as neighbouring social series. They do not rebate 28 August 2024.

Contributions and limits of responsibility

She took the 2022 oath and ordered the 2024 treaty denunciation. She ordered the 2026 transition after calling the result fraud. Manuel Zelaya remains unresolved. Sharing a Libre brand with Zelaya is not a reason to drop Castro-dated rows. Sharing a Venezuela-defence table with Padrino is not a reason to hang Caracas nights as hers.

Causal chain through facts

27 January 2022 strengthens transfer as a completed oath and initiates Libre continuity. 28 August 2024 strengthens the narco-legacy/extradition file. 15 January 2026 strengthens polarisation on the handover. None hang on territorial-revisionism, ukraine-war, or Soviet-scope rows.

What the score does not say

This page does not promise an exact number. Direction on the 2022 oath is plus on transfer. Direction on the treaty denunciation and delayed handover is criticism-first. Manuel Zelaya, Carlos Zelaya, and Nasry Asfura remain names on this file, not invented biographies.

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