Coal commission delivers a 2038 exit date
In January 2019 a government-appointed commission recommended a coal exit by 2038 with regional compensation. In the causal graph this event strengthens Decarbonization and climate-mitigation policy, a driver that weakens Global CO2 emissions per capita — an improving welfare path.
Read the full account
In January 2019 a government-appointed commission recommended a coal exit by 2038 with regional compensation. A later statute followed. The recommendation is a completed executive process of her last term.
Who was responsible
Contribution type and responsibility level for each recorded actor — not sole-author shorthand.
Angela Merkel
PersonDirect responsibility
responsibility level 0.45 · verified
She appointed the process. The later law still needed the Bundestag. 2038 is slower than climate plaintiffs wanted.
What changed
Fact → Driver → Indicator. Relationship strength orders the paths; it is not the observed indicator movement.
- FactCoal commission delivers a 2038 exit date
- strengthensDriverDecarbonization and climate-mitigation policy
- weakensIndicators (3)Global CO2 emissions per capita
impact weight 0.4 · Effect from 26 January 2019 · verified
A dated coal exit increases planned decarbonization, with a long lag and continued near-term coal generation.
Weakens · Relationship strength 0.24 (weight 0.4 × strength 0.6)
Observed
4.73 tonnes CO2 per person per year · 2.43 above the normal line (2024)
Worse than normalTwo readings: 4.71 tonnes CO2 per person per year (2023) and 4.73 tonnes CO2 per person per year (2024).
20232024 Above normal = worse
Weakens · Relationship strength 0.2 (weight 0.4 × strength 0.5)
Observed
32.9 micrograms per cubic metre (annual mean, population-weighted) · 27.9 above the normal line (2023)
Worse than normal3 readings, 2021–2023: fell from 33.2 micrograms per cubic metre (annual mean, population-weighted) to 32.9 micrograms per cubic metre (annual mean, population-weighted).
Above normal = worse
- Better
Strengthens · Relationship strength 0.16 (weight 0.4 × strength 0.4)
Observed
30% of electricity generation · 11 above the normal line (2023)
Better than normal6 readings, 2000–2023: rose from 18.9% of electricity generation to 30% of electricity generation.
Above normal = better
Evidence
The sources behind this fact and its verification state.
- 1.Reuters — Germany coal commission recommends 2038 exitReuters · High credibility · verified
- 2.Coal commission reportBMWK · High credibility · verified
Causal path
How this event connects to drivers and indicators in the graph.
- ActorAngela Merkel
- contributed toFactCoal commission delivers a 2038 exit date
- strengthensDriverDecarbonization and climate-mitigation policy
- weakensIndicatorGlobal CO2 emissions per capita
Cite this page
Factrail. (2026). Coal commission delivers a 2038 exit date. Factrail. https://factrail.ai/facts/de-coal-commission-2019
https://factrail.ai/facts/de-coal-commission-2019
Accessed 15 October 2026.
By the Factrail desk · Method: how we source and score · Last reviewed
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