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Lee loses the 2022 presidential election to Yoon Suk Yeol by a fraction of a percent

On 9 March 2022 NEC certified Yoon Suk Yeol over Lee Jae-myung by about 0.73 percentage points (roughly 48.56 to 47.83 percent). Neighbouring 2025 snap win is a later child after Yoon’s removal. In the causal graph this event strengthens Political Polarization, a driver that weakens Having a say in government — a worsening welfare path.

Sources: [1][2]

Read the full account

On 9 March 2022 NEC certified Yoon Suk Yeol over Lee Jae-myung by about 0.73 percentage points (roughly 48.56 to 47.83 percent).

Context

He had left Gyeonggi in 2021 to run. Neighbouring 2025 snap win is a later child after Yoon’s removal. He did not sit as NEC. A close loss is still ordinary democratic contest.

Gyeonggi resignation 2021 sat as parent. Martial-law 2024 and the 2025 snap win are later children, not this Sunday’s unique authorship of Yoon’s decree.

The President of the Republic of Korea is head of state and of the executive, appoints the prime minister with National Assembly consent, and commands the armed forces. The National Assembly enacts statutes. The Bank of Korea sets the policy rate. Courts, including the Supreme Court and Constitutional Court, judge. Chaebol boards, US Forces Korea, and provincial governments share later series. A Seongnam mayoral youth dividend or debt moratorium is not a 2025 statute. A criminal case must be stored with exact charge and judgment status — an allegation, indictment, first-instance finding, appellate acquittal, Supreme Court remand, or Article 84 stay is not a completed conviction if appealed, overturned, or pending. He did not author Yoon Suk Yeol’s 3 December 2024 martial-law decree.

Why it matters

The path is political polarization: a completed fraction-of-a-percent loss that structured the 2022–25 opposition file.

Who was responsible

Contribution type and responsibility level for each recorded actor — not sole-author shorthand.

  • Lee Jae Myung

    Person

    Direct responsibility

    responsibility level 0.5 · verified

    NEC certified. He was the DP candidate. Voters chose Yoon. Parties share the polarisation file.

What changed

Fact → Driver → Indicator. Relationship strength orders the paths; it is not the observed indicator movement.

    1. FactLee loses the 2022 presidential election to Yoon Suk Yeol by a fraction of a percent
    2. strengthensDriverPolitical Polarization
    3. weakensIndicators (2)Having a say in government
    Worsening path

    impact weight 0.55 · Effect from 9 March 2022 · verified

    A completed fraction-of-a-percent presidential loss polarised remaining DP–PPP weather.

    • Having a say in government

      via Political Polarization

      Worse

      Weakens · Relationship strength 0.25 (weight 0.55 × strength 0.45)

      Observed

      29.8% of population aged 16-65 years · 8.13 below the normal line (2023)

      Worse than normal

      Two readings: 30.2% of population aged 16-65 years (2021) and 29.8% of population aged 16-65 years (2023).

      20212023

      Above normal = better

    • Rule of Law Gap from the Highest Governance Score

      via Political Polarization

      Worse

      Strengthens · Relationship strength 0.25 (weight 0.55 × strength 0.45)

      Observed

      43.9 Score · 43.9 above the normal line (2024)

      Worse than normal

      26 readings, 1996–2024: rose from 43 Score to 43.9 Score.

      Normal is zero · any amount = worse

    1. FactLee loses the 2022 presidential election to Yoon Suk Yeol by a fraction of a percent
    2. strengthensDriverDemocratic Resilience
    3. strengthensIndicators (3)Having a say in government
    Improving path

    impact weight 0.3 · Effect from 9 March 2022 · verified

    A completed certified close contest is still ordinary rotation, remaining later martial-law shock named separately.

    • Having a say in government

      via Democratic Resilience

      Better

      Strengthens · Relationship strength 0.21 (weight 0.3 × strength 0.7)

      Observed

      29.8% of population aged 16-65 years · 8.13 below the normal line (2023)

      Worse than normal

      Two readings: 30.2% of population aged 16-65 years (2021) and 29.8% of population aged 16-65 years (2023).

      20212023

      Above normal = better

    • Clean elections index

      via Democratic Resilience

      Better

      Strengthens · Relationship strength 0.14 (weight 0.3 × strength 0.45)

      Observed

      0.53 score from 0 to 1 · 0.34 below the normal line (2024)

      Worse than normal

      125 readings, 1900–2024: rose from 0.17 score from 0 to 1 to 0.53 score from 0 to 1.

      Above normal = better

    • WJP Rule of Law Index (global)

      via Democratic Resilience

      Better

      Strengthens · Relationship strength 0.14 (weight 0.3 × strength 0.45)

      Observed

      0.55 index score (0-1) · 0.26 below the normal line (2024)

      Worse than normal

      Above normal = better

Evidence

The sources behind this fact and its verification state.

Verified2 sources on file
  1. 1.Reuters — South Korea’s tight 2022 presidential race; Yoon declared winner over LeeReuters · High credibility · verified
  2. 2.National Election Commission of South Korea — 20th presidential election results, 9 March 2022National Election Commission of South Korea · High credibility · verified
What the sources establish

National Election Commission of South Korea carries the official instrument or communique. Reuters records the same dated act independently.

Established: 9 March 2022 NEC result, independently reported.

Not established: that the 2025 snap win was uniquely owed from that Sunday, or a unique later martial-law coefficient as his authorship.

He was the DP candidate. Voters chose Yoon. Parties share the polarisation file.. A later repeal, court stay, or successor order would be a different Fact with a different date. That pair identifies Lee loses the 2022 presidential election to Yoon Suk Yeol by a fraction of a percent, not a later speech about Lee loses the 2022 presidential election to Yoon Suk Yeol by a fraction of a percent.

Co-authors and later implementers named in Context remain on the file. If a later repeal, stay, or successor instrument exists, it needs its own date and its own row. The contribution described on this Person row is limited to NEC certified. He was the DP candidate. Voters chose Yoon. Parties share the polarisation file. That limit is the alternative to treating office-holding as authorship of every later series.

Causal path

How this event connects to drivers and indicators in the graph.

  1. ActorLee Jae Myung
  2. contributed toFactLee loses the 2022 presidential election to Yoon Suk Yeol by a fraction of a percent
  3. strengthensDrivers (2)Political Polarization
  4. weakensIndicatorHaving a say in government

Cite this page

Factrail. (2026). Lee loses the 2022 presidential election to Yoon Suk Yeol by a fraction of a percent. Factrail. https://factrail.ai/facts/kr-lee-2022-election

https://factrail.ai/facts/kr-lee-2022-election

Accessed 15 October 2026.

By the Factrail desk · Method: how we source and score · Last reviewed

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