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NLD wins the 2015 general election

On 8 November 2015 the NLD won a landslide, the first honoured transfer toward civilian government since 1962. In the causal graph this event strengthens Democratic Resilience, a driver that strengthens Having a say in government — an improving welfare path.

Sources: [1][2]

Read the full account

On 8 November 2015 the NLD won a landslide, the first honoured transfer toward civilian government since 1962.

Context

UEC canvassed. The Tatmadaw kept 25 percent of seats. A landslide is still ordinary rotation inside a constrained charter.

2016 State Counsellor oath is the neighbouring start. 2020 is later.

Myanmar’s State Counsellor (2016–2021) was de facto civilian head under the 2008 Constitution; she did not command the Tatmadaw’s autonomous ministries, write a Bangladeshi gazette, an ICJ merits judgment, or a 2026 Min Aung Hlaing amnesty. She has been detained since 1 February 2021; as of August 2026 she is under house arrest after sentence commutations, not in office. A Nobel lecture is not a clearance-operation order. An ICJ appearance is not a personal genocide conviction. A junta court sentence is not a finding that every charge was true. Allegation of a stolen 2020 count is not stored as a completed steal. A Panglong speech is not a nationwide ceasefire. A Reuters conviction is not a completed finding that the journalists planted evidence. A 2026 ICRC visit is not a release.

Why it matters

The path is democratic resilience: a completed honoured landslide is civilian rotation after decades of junta rule.

Who was responsible

Contribution type and responsibility level for each recorded actor — not sole-author shorthand.

  • Aung San Suu Kyi

    Person

    Direct responsibility

    responsibility level 0.75 · verified

    Voters chose. UEC canvassed. Thein Sein later transferred. The Tatmadaw kept the 25 percent block.

What changed

Fact → Driver → Indicator. Relationship strength orders the paths; it is not the observed indicator movement.

    1. FactNLD wins the 2015 general election
    2. strengthensDriverDemocratic Resilience
    3. strengthensIndicators (3)Having a say in government
    Improving path

    impact weight 0.55 · Effect from 8 November 2015 · verified

    A completed honoured landslide is civilian rotation after decades of military rule.

    • Having a say in government

      via Democratic Resilience

      Better

      Strengthens · Relationship strength 0.39 (weight 0.55 × strength 0.7)

      Observed

      29.8% of population aged 16-65 years · 8.13 below the normal line (2023)

      Worse than normal

      Two readings: 30.2% of population aged 16-65 years (2021) and 29.8% of population aged 16-65 years (2023).

      20212023

      Above normal = better

    • Clean elections index

      via Democratic Resilience

      Better

      Strengthens · Relationship strength 0.25 (weight 0.55 × strength 0.45)

      Observed

      0.53 score from 0 to 1 · 0.34 below the normal line (2024)

      Worse than normal

      125 readings, 1900–2024: rose from 0.17 score from 0 to 1 to 0.53 score from 0 to 1.

      Above normal = better

    • WJP Rule of Law Index (global)

      via Democratic Resilience

      Better

      Strengthens · Relationship strength 0.25 (weight 0.55 × strength 0.45)

      Observed

      0.55 index score (0-1) · 0.26 below the normal line (2024)

      Worse than normal

      Above normal = better

Evidence

The sources behind this fact and its verification state.

Verified2 sources on file
  1. 1.Reuters — Myanmar's Suu Kyi set for power after landslide electionReuters · High credibility · verified
  2. 2.Union Election Commission — 2012 by-elections, KawhmuUnion Election Commission Myanmar · High credibility · verified
What the sources establish

Union Election Commission Myanmar carries the official instrument or communique. Reuters records the same dated act independently.

Established: an 8 November 2015 NLD landslide, independently reported as honoured.

Not established: that the Tatmadaw’s reserved ministries ended, or a unique later GDP coefficient from election night.

UEC canvassed. Thein Sein later transferred. The Tatmadaw kept the 25 percent block.. A later repeal, court stay, or successor order would be a different Fact with a different date. That pair identifies NLD wins the 2015 general election, not a later speech about NLD wins the 2015 general election.

Co-authors and later implementers named in Context remain on the file. If a later repeal, stay, or successor instrument exists, it needs its own date and its own row. The contribution described on this Person row is limited to Voters chose. UEC canvassed. Thein Sein later transferred. The Tatmadaw kept the 25 percent block. That limit is the alternative to treating office-holding as authorship of every later series.

Causal path

How this event connects to drivers and indicators in the graph.

  1. ActorAung San Suu Kyi
  2. contributed toFactNLD wins the 2015 general election
  3. strengthensDriverDemocratic Resilience
  4. strengthensIndicatorHaving a say in government

Cite this page

Factrail. (2026). NLD wins the 2015 general election. Factrail. https://factrail.ai/facts/mm-suu-election-2015

https://factrail.ai/facts/mm-suu-election-2015

Accessed 16 October 2026.

By the Factrail desk · Method: how we source and score · Last reviewed

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