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Aung San Suu Kyi

Aung San Suu Kyi

-31

Net harmfulFormula-derived score

Junta trials are court instruments, not completed proof of guilt. The largest negative contribution to the formula-derived score is “Suu Kyi appears at the ICJ to defend Myanmar against Gambia’s genocide case” (2019). The largest positive offset is “NLD wins the 2020 general election the military later calls fraudulent” (2020).

Sources: [1][2][3][4][5]+18

Top harm

Suu Kyi appears at the ICJ to defend Myanmar against Gambia’s genocide case

−13 pts

Top offset

NLD wins the 2020 general election the military later calls fraudulent

+4 pts

NLD civilian supremacynon-violent democratic transitionBuddhist-majority sovereignty treated as compatible with a 1991 Nobel

Impact

Biggest harms and offsets: signed contributions to the formula-derived score, ranked by size.

Biggest harms

Lowers the score

5 more ranked below in Timeline and Related.

Biggest offsets

Raises the score
Editorial assessment (context, not the score)

The 1988–2026 file is not a civic saint and not a single-issue Rohingya footnote. Those rest on UN FFM prints, ICJ transcripts, court records, and wires. The Tatmadaw’s reserved ministries share the guns; sharing is not a reason to drop her civilian host role.

The offsets are dated. 1990 and 2015 electoral wins, a 1991 Nobel, 2010 release, 2016 civilian office and prisoner releases, and 2020’s completed count are completed instruments later broken by the 2021 coup. Junta trials and 2026 house arrest are dated detention instruments her allies call political; they are stored as court-and-custody facts, not as completed proof of the charged acts.

She does not sit in the 2026 Naypyitaw cabinet and she does not write a Tatmadaw battalion order. Confidence is high on CEC-equivalent returns, the coup date, ICJ appearance, ICRC 2026 visit, and UN displacement estimates, and medium where Tatmadaw command and later body counts sit between a civilian signature and a welfare indicator.

Indicators affected

Sorted by the size of this person’s signed contribution. The observed state is the indicator’s own reading, not this person’s doing.

Accountability & contradictions

Claims against the record, the type of responsibility, and what is disputed.

Responsibility

What could change this assessment

  • 2 linked facts have no assessed welfare direction yet.
  • Lifetime coverage has not been assessed: the record reflects stored facts only (1988–2026).

Causal path

Person → Fact → Driver → Indicator. Select a path to inspect its factors; the full network opens on demand.

  1. PersonAung San Suu Kyi
  2. FactSuu Kyi appears at the ICJ to defend Myanmar against Gambia’s genocide case
  3. DriverProtection of Minority Rights
  4. IndicatorRule of Law Gap from the Highest Governance Score
−13 pts

Contribution size 0.7 · Responsibility 0.65 · Fact impact −0.45 · Driver weight 0.57 · Driver → indicator 0.45 · Indicator importance 0.8 · Deviation factor −3 · Confidence 1

  1. PersonAung San Suu Kyi
  2. FactMyanmar confirms COVID-19 and Suu Kyi’s government issues controls
  3. DriverPandemic Preparedness
  4. IndicatorLife expectancy at birth
−9 pts

Contribution size 0.45 · Responsibility 0.4 · Fact impact 0.35 · Driver weight 0.76 · Driver → indicator 0.69 · Indicator importance 0.85 · Deviation factor −2.52 · Confidence 1

  1. PersonAung San Suu Kyi
  2. FactNLD wins the 2020 general election the military later calls fraudulent
  3. DriverPolitical Polarization
  4. IndicatorRule of Law Gap from the Highest Governance Score
+4 pts

Contribution size 0.7 · Responsibility 0.65 · Fact impact 0.3 · Driver weight 0.34 · Driver → indicator −0.45 · Indicator importance 0.8 · Deviation factor −3 · Confidence 1

Timeline

The most relevant dated facts, newest first.

  1. 30 April 2026 · Democratic Resilience

    Junta authorities move Suu Kyi from prison to house arrest after commutations
    −2 pts

  2. 30 December 2022 · Judicial Independence

    Junta courts stack decades of sentences against Suu Kyi
    −6 pts

  3. 1 February 2021 · Democratic Resilience

    The Tatmadaw detains Suu Kyi in the 1 February 2021 coup
    −4 pts

  4. 8 November 2020 · Democratic Resilience

    NLD wins the 2020 general election the military later calls fraudulent
    +4 pts

  5. 23 March 2020 · Pandemic Preparedness

    Myanmar confirms COVID-19 and Suu Kyi’s government issues controls
    −9 pts

  6. 11 December 2019 · Protection of Minority Rights

    Suu Kyi appears at the ICJ to defend Myanmar against Gambia’s genocide case
    −13 pts

Evidence & methodology

How the record is sourced and how the score is derived.

32 of 32 linked facts verified, drawing on 23 distinct sources (1988–2026).

Sources include International Committee of the Red Cross, Ministry of Information Myanmar, United Nations Security Council, Union Election Commission Myanmar, Ministry of Health Myanmar, Pyithu Hluttaw Myanmar, Office of the President Myanmar, Central Statistical Organization Myanmar.

Sources (showing 8 of 23)

  1. 1.Office of the President — State Counsellor Law and appointment, April 2016Office of the President Myanmar
  2. 2.Union Election Commission — 2012 by-elections, KawhmuUnion Election Commission Myanmar
  3. 3.Myanmar Law Information System — 1982 Citizenship Law remaining in force, 2016–Union Attorney General's Office Myanmar
  4. 4.Myanmar state media — court sentences against Aung San Suu Kyi, 2022Ministry of Information Myanmar
  5. 5.UN Independent International Fact-Finding Mission on Myanmar — 2018 report on Rakhine operationsUN Human Rights Council
  6. 6.ICRC — delegate meeting with Aung San Suu Kyi, August 2026International Committee of the Red Cross
  7. 7.UN Security Council — press statement on Myanmar, 4 February 2021United Nations Security Council
  8. 8.Ministry of Health and Sports — first COVID-19 confirmations and control measures, March 2020Ministry of Health Myanmar

The score is formula-derived (Factrail formula v1, version 1.0.0), not an editorial verdict. Read the methodology.

By the Factrail desk · Method: how we source and score · Last reviewed · Sources: 23

Expert analysis

An excerpt; the full analysis opens on request.

The power she actually held

Aung San Suu Kyi was State Counsellor of Myanmar from 6 April 2016 to 1 February 2021. As of August 2026 she is detained under house arrest after April commutations; an ICRC delegate met her on 3 August 2026. The 2008 Constitution made her de facto civilian head and blocked her from the presidency because of her late British husband. It also reserved defence, home, and border affairs to the commander-in-chief.

That limit is the first fact about her power. The second is that a Nobel is not a clearance-operation order. The third is that a junta court after a coup is not a substitute for a public trial of the 2017 file.

What went wrong, and what is proven

August 2017 Rakhine operations drove hundreds of thousands of Rohingya into Bangladesh on her watch. UN fact-finding later described Tatmadaw conduct in genocidal-intent language; she did not issue every battalion order and she did not sit as an ICC defendant. The ICJ appearance is a completed defence of the state, not a personal genocide conviction. Reuters journalists were convicted under official-secrets law, then pardoned later. The 1982 citizenship architecture she did not repeal left Rohingya legally stranded. 2020 charter-change failure left the Tatmadaw’s veto intact.

The 1 February 2021 coup detained her. Secret-trial sentences stacked years her allies call fabricated. April 2026 house arrest after commutations is a completed custody change, not a release and not a finding that the charges were true.

What improved, and how far

NLD founding, the 1990 win the junta ignored, the 1991 Nobel, 2010 release, 2012 by-election, and 2015 landslide are completed democratic-entry instruments. The 2016 oath and prisoner releases started a civilian term. 21st-century Panglong is a completed peace-process opening with later stall. 2020 re-election is a completed count later broken by tanks. The August 2026 ICRC visit is a completed access instrument, not a pardon.

Shared responsibility, and what the score does not say

Min Aung Hlaing, the Tatmadaw, UEC, Hasina’s Dhaka as refugee host, Guterres, Xi, and Western capitals are not extras. Treating her as sole author of every Rakhine rifle, or as a bystander on 2015 rotation, would be the same error in opposite directions.

The score does not say she is State Counsellor in 2026. It does not convert an ICJ appearance into a personal genocide conviction. It does not convert a junta sentence into completed proof of corruption. Confidence is high on election returns, the coup date, ICJ transcripts, and UN displacement estimates, and medium where battalion command sits between a civilian office and a body count.

Related people are Min Aung Hlaing, Hasina, Yunus, Xi, Modi, Guterres, Biden, Hun Sen, Widodo, and von der Leyen. Related news includes the 2021 coup, a 2025 Myanmar earthquake, COVID, and COP files already in production.

A detained former counsellor is powerful enough to have owned 2015–20 civilian statutes and the 2017 civilian-host role. She is not powerful enough to be Myanmar’s 2026 incumbent, the author of a Tatmadaw battalion order, or an ICJ convict, and the catalog keeps that line visible. Keep 1988, 1990, 2017, 2019, 2021, and 2026 on separate dates.

Questions

Is Aung San Suu Kyi under sanctions?

Yes. 11 December 2019: Suu Kyi appears at the ICJ to defend Myanmar against Gambia’s genocide case (International Court of Justice). 27 August 2018: Western targeted sanctions follow the UN fact-finding report (UN Human Rights Council).

Does Aung San Suu Kyi face an ICC warrant or criminal charges?

30 December 2022: Junta courts stack decades of sentences against Suu Kyi. 1 February 2021: The Tatmadaw detains Suu Kyi in the 1 February 2021 coup.

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