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Sheikh Hasina

Sheikh Hasina

-100

Net harmfulFormula-derived score

Country is Bangladesh, not Pakistan. The ICT judgment is a tribunal instrument she rejects, not a unique unofficial body-count. The largest negative contribution to the formula-derived score is “Security forces use lethal force against the July uprising” (2024).

Sources: [1][2][3][4][5]+16

Top harm

Security forces use lethal force against the July uprising

−39 pts

Top offset

The United States sanctions RAB and named officers

+2 pts

Awami League Mujibist secularismstate-led megaproject developmentsecurity-first order treated as compatible with garment export growth

Impact

Biggest harms and offsets: signed contributions to the formula-derived score, ranked by size.

Biggest harms

Lowers the score

5 more ranked below in Timeline and Related.

Biggest offsets

Raises the score
Editorial assessment (context, not the score)

The 1996–2024 premiership is not a development saint and not a single-issue massacre footnote. The heaviest documented costs are the July 2024 crackdown and flight, RAB-era enforced disappearances, the Digital Security Act, and 2014–24 election weather with opposition boycotts and alleged rigging. Those rest on gazettes, UN prints, RAB/US sanction packages, and wires. The ICT’s 17 November 2025 death sentence is a completed tribunal instrument she rejects; fair-trial complaints are stored as leaks, not as a reason to drop the row and not as a licence to invent a unique unofficial body-count.

The offsets are dated. The 1997 CHT accord, Ganges water-sharing, Padma Bridge after a World Bank walk-away, garment-and-growth spells, and 2017 Rohingya hosting are completed instruments. Police, RAB, the Election Commission, and India share several files.

She does not sit in the 2026 Jatiya Sangsad as prime minister and she does not write an Indian extradition order. Confidence is high on the 5 August 2024 flight, the 17 November 2025 ICT sentence, Padma opening, and UN-reported 2024 death estimates as estimates, and medium where RAB command and later reserve prints sit between a signature and a welfare series.

Indicators affected

Sorted by the size of this person’s signed contribution. The observed state is the indicator’s own reading, not this person’s doing.

Accountability & contradictions

Claims against the record, the type of responsibility, and what is disputed.

Responsibility

What could change this assessment

  • 1 linked fact has no assessed welfare direction yet.
  • Lifetime coverage has not been assessed: the record reflects stored facts only (1981–2026).

Causal path

Person → Fact → Driver → Indicator. Select a path to inspect its factors; the full network opens on demand.

  1. PersonSheikh Hasina
  2. FactSecurity forces use lethal force against the July uprising
  3. DriverDemocratic Resilience
  4. IndicatorHaving a say in government
−39 pts

Contribution size 0.8 · Responsibility 0.75 · Fact impact −0.7 · Driver weight 0.55 · Driver → indicator 0.7 · Indicator importance 0.8 · Deviation factor −3 · Confidence 1

  1. PersonSheikh Hasina
  2. FactAwami League wins the January 2024 election in a one-sided contest
  3. DriverDemocratic Resilience
  4. IndicatorHaving a say in government
−23 pts

Contribution size 0.7 · Responsibility 0.65 · Fact impact −0.55 · Driver weight 0.55 · Driver → indicator 0.7 · Indicator importance 0.8 · Deviation factor −3 · Confidence 1

  1. PersonSheikh Hasina
  2. FactThe United States sanctions RAB and named officers
  3. DriverSanctions Pressure
  4. IndicatorGlobal Consumer Price Inflation (annual %)
+2 pts

Contribution size 0.45 · Responsibility 0.4 · Fact impact 0.5 · Driver weight 0.44 · Driver → indicator −0.4 · Indicator importance 0.9 · Deviation factor 1.2 · Confidence 1

Timeline

The most relevant dated facts, newest first.

  1. 17 November 2025 · Judicial Independence

    The ICT sentences Hasina to death in absentia over the 2024 crackdown
    −9 pts

  2. 5 August 2024 · Democratic Resilience

    Hasina resigns and flees to India
    −19 pts

  3. 16 July 2024 · Democratic Resilience

    Security forces use lethal force against the July uprising
    −39 pts

  4. 7 January 2024 · Democratic Resilience

    Awami League wins the January 2024 election in a one-sided contest
    −23 pts

  5. 28 December 2022 · Industrial-Policy Activism

    Dhaka Metro Rail opens its first line
    −7 pts

  6. 25 June 2022 · Industrial-Policy Activism

    Padma Bridge opens after domestic finance
    −6 pts

Evidence & methodology

How the record is sourced and how the score is derived.

32 of 32 linked facts verified, drawing on 21 distinct sources (1981–2026).

Sources include Ministry of Foreign Affairs Bangladesh, International Crimes Tribunal Bangladesh, Cabinet Division Bangladesh, United Nations human rights system, Supreme Court of Bangladesh, Election Commission Bangladesh, Dhaka Mass Transit Company Limited, Bangladesh Bank.

Sources (showing 8 of 21)

  1. 1.MOFA Bangladesh — Ganges Water Sharing Treaty, 12 December 1996Ministry of Foreign Affairs Bangladesh
  2. 2.Cabinet Division — first Hasina ministry, 23 June 1996Cabinet Division Bangladesh
  3. 3.Election Commission Bangladesh — 5 January 2014 general electionElection Commission Bangladesh
  4. 4.Bangladesh Bank — Grameen Bank managing-director retirement/removal, 2011Bangladesh Bank
  5. 5.Bangladesh Bridge Authority — Padma Bridge inauguration, 25 June 2022Bangladesh Bridge Authority
  6. 6.Laws of Bangladesh — Digital Security Act, 2018Department of Printing and Publications Bangladesh
  7. 7.DGHS — first COVID-19 confirmations and control measures, March 2020Directorate General of Health Services Bangladesh
  8. 8.Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics — GDP and export prints, 2019Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics

The score is formula-derived (Factrail formula v1, version 1.0.0), not an editorial verdict. Read the methodology.

By the Factrail desk · Method: how we source and score · Last reviewed · Sources: 21

Expert analysis

An excerpt; the full analysis opens on request.

The power she actually held

Sheikh Hasina was prime minister of Bangladesh from 1996 to 2001 and from 2009 to 5 August 2024. Country is Bangladesh, not Pakistan. As of August 2026 she is in India after an ICT death sentence in absentia. Article 55 of the Constitution makes the PM head of government. It does not make her the author of an Indian MEA minute or of a UN body-count.

That limit is the first fact about her power.

What went wrong, and what is proven

July 2024 security forces killed protesters on a scale UN investigators later put near 1,400; the ICT later called her the mastermind — a tribunal finding she rejects. She fled to India on 5 August 2024. The 17 November 2025 ICT sentence is a completed in-absentia death sentence, not a completed execution and not a licence to invent a unique unofficial total. RAB-era disappearances and US sanctions on RAB are dated. The Digital Security Act chilled speech. 2014, 2018, and January 2024 elections are contested mandate instruments. Yunus’s 2011 Grameen removal is a completed political-and-bank instrument. Rampal is a completed coal path. 2022 reserve stress printed on her watch.

What improved, and how far

The 1997 CHT accord is a completed peace instrument with later implementation lag. Padma Bridge opened after she cancelled World Bank finance amid a corruption fight — a completed span, not a completed theft conviction. 2017 Rohingya hosting is a completed humanitarian-access instrument. Garment-and-growth and Ashrayan housing are dated. The 1996 first term and 2009 return are completed rotations.

Shared responsibility, and what the score does not say

RAB, DMP, BGB, the Election Commission, Modi’s Delhi, Yunus’s later interim, and Suu Kyi’s Rakhine file are not extras. Treating Hasina as sole author of every RAB raid, or as a bystander on Padma, would be the same error in opposite directions.

The score does not say she is prime minister in 2026. It does not convert an ICT sentence into a unique unofficial body-count. It does not convert a World Bank cancellation into a completed theft. Confidence is high on the flight date, the ICT sentence, and Padma opening, and medium where RAB command sits between a signature and a missing-person series.

Related people are Yunus, Modi, Suu Kyi, Sharif, Khan, Xi, Biden, von der Leyen, Guterres, and Trump. Related news includes floods, Rohingya-adjacent Myanmar coup weather, COVID, and COP files already in production.

A former premier is powerful enough to have owned those statutes and the July file. She is not powerful enough to be Bangladesh’s 2026 incumbent or the author of an Indian extradition, and the catalog keeps that line visible. Keep 1997, 2018, 2022, 2024, and 2025 on separate dates.

Questions

Is Sheikh Hasina under sanctions?

Yes. 10 December 2021: The United States sanctions RAB and named officers (US Department of the Treasury).

Does Sheikh Hasina face an ICC warrant or criminal charges?

17 November 2025: The ICT sentences Hasina to death in absentia over the 2024 crackdown. 15 July 2018: RAB-era enforced disappearances remain a documented security path.

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